Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 5th 2024

At 6:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -229. The Marlins are +188, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.

Philadelphia is 83-56 and has won four straight, while the Marlins are 52-87 and are 5th in the NL East. Adam Oller is starting for the Marlins, and the Phillies are going with Ranger Suarez.

Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 11-6 with a 3.02 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.07. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Suárez has one complete game shutout this season and 11 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.98 strikeouts and just 2.03 walks.

The Phillies come into the game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game (6th). They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average and have the 6th best slugging percentage in the league. Philadelphia also does a good job of getting on base and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league.

Both Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm have been big run producers for the Phillies this season, as they are tied for 1st on the team with 89 RBIs. Schwarber’s 32 home runs are 9th best in the MLB, and Bryce Harper is right behind him with 26 homers. Harper has been hot of late, batting .382 over his last 10 games.

Adam Oller will be making his second start of the season for the Marlins. He started his year with a win over the Cubs, going 5 2/3 innings and striking out 6. In his last start, he went 6 innings and picked up a no-decision, striking out 8 batters.

So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. Miami has been even worse at the plate on the road, averaging only 3.5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 14th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .296 is 20th in the MLB.

Jake Burger has been a bright spot for the Marlins this season, as he is batting .247 with a team-high 25 home runs and 60 RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is also near the top of the team’s home run and RBI leaderboards, with 17 homers and 57 RBIs. Sánchez is also on a four-game hitting streak.

The Philadelphia Phillies are inching closer to clinching their first National League East division title since 2011. With a strong 83-56 record, they kick off a crucial four-game series against the Miami Marlins on Thursday. Holding a comfortable seven-game lead over the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies are firmly in control. Boasting one of MLB’s highest payrolls at $247 million, they’ve dominated the division. In stark contrast, the Marlins, with one of the lowest payrolls at $97 million, are near the bottom of the standings with a 52-87 record.

Phillies Eyeing Division Title Despite Harper’s Injury

While the Phillies are close to the division crown, they’ve hit a bump with Bryce Harper battling injuries. The eight-time All-Star was struck by a 92-mph fastball in Wednesday’s 4-2 win against the Toronto Blue Jays, forcing him to exit early due to a stiff left elbow. Harper, who’s been dealing with wrist and elbow issues all season, remains hopeful that he’ll continue playing.

Manager Rob Thomson downplayed the injury, noting, “It was stiffening up a bit, but, as of now, he’s fine.”

Even if Harper misses a few games, the Phillies’ lineup is loaded with talent. Stars like J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber have stepped up throughout the season. Schwarber, in particular, has been on fire—his 13th leadoff home run of the season on Wednesday tied Alfonso Soriano’s MLB single-season record.

Ranger Suarez Takes the Mound for the Phillies

On Thursday, Ranger Suarez (11-6, 3.02 ERA) gets the start for Philadelphia. Despite some struggles in July and August, where he posted a 6.61 and 5.00 ERA respectively, Suarez remains a key part of the rotation. The left-hander has performed well against the Marlins in the past, holding a 5-2 career record with a 3.47 ERA in 20 appearances (nine starts).

For the Phillies, success often hinges on Suarez’s ability to generate groundouts with his curveball and fastball. The team is 15-7 this season when Suarez starts, but he’s lost six of his last eight decisions. With the division title within reach, the Phillies will need him to be at his best.

Marlins Turn to Adam Oller After Walk-Off Win

The Marlins will counter with Adam Oller (1-1, 3.31 ERA), making his 19th MLB start. The 29-year-old has never faced the Phillies before, but he’ll look to build on his season as Miami tries to slow Philadelphia’s momentum.

The Marlins are coming off a morale-boosting 4-3 walk-off win against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, snapping an eight-game losing streak to Washington. Xavier Edwards delivered the game-winning hit in just his second game back from injury, and manager Skip Schumaker was quick to praise Edwards’ bat-to-ball skills.

Edwards, who’s hitting .341 in 49 games this season, is a bright spot in Miami’s lineup and a player to watch for the future. Schumaker emphasized Edwards’ potential, saying, “His bat-to-ball skills are elite. He’s shown he can be an everyday player, whether it’s at shortstop or second base.”

Key Matchup: Phillies’ Firepower vs. Marlins’ Pitching

Despite the teams heading in different directions, Thursday’s game has the potential to be an intriguing matchup. The Phillies’ powerful offense, led by stars like Schwarber, Turner, and Castellanos, will look to capitalize on Oller’s inexperience against Philadelphia. Oller, on the other hand, will need to keep his composure against one of the league’s most potent lineups.

For the Marlins, the focus will be on supporting Oller, especially with young players like Xavier Edwards showing promise at the plate. If they can generate some early runs, they may have a shot to slow the Phillies’ charge toward the division title.

Phillies Poised to Clinch

With a commanding lead in the National League East, the Phillies are just a few wins away from claiming their first division title in over a decade. This series against the Marlins presents a prime opportunity to inch closer to that goal. With Ranger Suarez on the mound and a lineup brimming with firepower, Philadelphia is in a strong position to open the series with a win in Miami.

As for the Marlins, they’ll be hoping Oller can slow down the Phillies’ bats and keep them in the game. However, with Miami’s season winding down, the focus may shift to development and seeing what their young talent can do against one of the best teams in the league.

For a money-line pick, our lean would be to take the Marlins to come out on top at home. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 4th highest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the 3rd highest total hits projection. Between the two starters, we have Adam Oller as the better strikeout option than Ranger Suárez for the Phillies.