Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 6th 2024

At 7:10 PM ET, the Phillies and Marlins square off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their line sitting at -231 compared to the Marlins at +191. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

Philadelphia will be looking to extend their five-game winning streak with Zack Wheeler on the mound, while the Marlins will be starting Edward Cabrera. Miami is 52-88 this season, while the Phillies are 84-56 and in 1st place in the NL East. The Marlins are 5th in the division.

Zack Wheeler has been pitching well for the Phillies this season, coming into the game with a record of 13-6 and an ERA of 2.63. He has made 27 starts, and opponents are batting just .191 off the right-hander this season. Wheeler has turned in 21 quality starts and has a WHIP of .98. In his last outing, he didn’t allow a run, picking up the win after going seven innings vs. the Braves. Wheeler has only allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.82 strikeouts compared to 2.42 walks.

So far, the Phillies offense has been one of the best in the league, as they are 6th in runs per game and have the 2nd best home batting average in the league. Overall, they are batting .258, which is 4th in the league, and have an on-base percentage of .327, which is also 4th. Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm are both in the top 10 in home runs this season, with Schwarber’s 32 homers leading the team and Bohm’s 13 homers coming in as the 6th most in the lineup.

Over his last nine games, Schwarber has four homers and is hitting .270. He also has a team-high 89 RBIs, which is 10th best in the league. Bryce Harper has also been a big run producer for the Phillies, as he is 13th in the league with 76 RBIs.

Miami is sending Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Phillies, and he comes into the game with a record of 3-6 and an ERA of 5.33. So far this year, he has made 16 starts, and opponents are batting .230 off the right-hander. Cabrera’s last outing came on August 31st vs. the Giants, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Cabrera has given up at least one homer in each of his last three outings.

Over the past four games, Derek Hill has gone 4/14 (.286) with three runs and two homers. For the season, Hill is batting .247 with a team-high 25 homers. Jake Burger also has strong power numbers, as he is 14th in the league with 25 homers and has driven in a team-high 60 runs. Jesús Sánchez is 2nd on the team with 17 homers and 58 RBIs.

As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league at 3.8 runs per game. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. Currently, they are the league’s worst team in terms of drawing walks and have the 15th best batting average in the league. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage and OPS.

Streaking Phillies Turn to Zack Wheeler Against Struggling Marlins

The Philadelphia Phillies, winners of five straight, are looking to keep their momentum going as they face the Miami Marlins in the second game of a four-game series. With Zack Wheeler taking the mound on Friday, the Phillies aim to solidify their lead in the National League East and extend their winning streak. Meanwhile, Wheeler, having a standout season, has his sights set on a potential Cy Young Award.

Wheeler’s Cy Young Pursuit

Zack Wheeler (13-6, 2.63 ERA) has been lights-out this season, positioning himself as a top contender for the National League Cy Young Award. Currently trailing only Atlanta’s Chris Sale (16-3, 2.46 ERA), Wheeler remains laser-focused on both individual and team success.

Coming off a dominant seven shutout innings in a 3-0 win over the Braves, Wheeler is poised to continue his stellar run. He has a strong track record against Miami, with a 10-4 record and a 2.78 ERA in 24 career starts. However, this season has seen a couple of hiccups against the Marlins, as Wheeler posted a 6.75 ERA in two outings without earning a decision.

A key to Wheeler’s success has been his connection with catcher J.T. Realmuto. When Realmuto is behind the plate, Wheeler boasts a 1.98 ERA. Without him, that number jumps to 4.69. “J.T. is one of the best in the game at calling pitches,” said Marlins manager Skip Schumaker. “He knows how to keep hitters off balance.”

Phillies in Control of NL East

The Phillies (84-56) are cruising in the NL East, holding an eight-game lead over the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. They opened this series with a 5-2 victory on Thursday and are inching closer to their first division title since 2011.

Manager Rob Thomson recognizes the importance of staying sharp down the stretch while also managing his players’ workload. “There’s a balance between resting guys and making sure we get home-field advantage in the playoffs,” Thomson explained. “Playing in front of our fans at home gives us that extra boost.”

Marlins Lean on Young Talent

The Marlins (52-88) have had a challenging season but are using this time to develop their young core. Players like third baseman Connor Norby and shortstop Xavier Edwards have stepped up in recent weeks, showing promise for the future.

Norby, who was acquired from the Orioles in late July, has hit the ground running. In 15 games with Miami, he’s batting .317 with a .953 OPS, notching a hit in 14 of those games. Edwards has also been impressive, hitting .333 with an .823 OPS in 50 games while swiping 22 bases in 24 attempts.

Pitching Matchup: Wheeler vs. Cabrera

The Marlins will counter Wheeler with Edward Cabrera (3-6, 5.33 ERA). Cabrera has struggled throughout the season, and his last outing against the Phillies was rough. On August 14, he gave up six runs on six hits and four walks in just four innings, which included a grand slam by Kyle Schwarber. Miami lost that game 9-5, and Cabrera will be looking to bounce back in this tough matchup.

In five career starts against the Phillies, Cabrera holds a 1-2 record with a 4.70 ERA. Miami has gone 7-9 in his starts this season, and they’ll need Cabrera to be at his best to slow down a red-hot Phillies lineup.

Series Outlook

With Zack Wheeler leading the charge, the Phillies are in prime position to extend their winning streak and continue their march toward the postseason. The offense has been clicking, and Wheeler’s form makes him a daunting challenge for Miami. For the Marlins, this game is another opportunity to develop their young talent, but they’ll have their hands full facing one of the best pitchers in the league.

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the over, as this is projected to be the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Marlins to come out on top. The Phillies have the 2nd worst team hits projection, and Zack Wheeler is our 2nd highest projected starter in terms of strikeouts. On the other side, Edward Cabrera is 7th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.