Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions August 5th 2024

At 6:40 PM ET, the Reds and Marlins face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Reds are the betting favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -141 compared to the Marlins at +119. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Cincinnati comes in with a record of 53-58 and they are 5th in the NL Central, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East with a record of 42-70. Roddery Munoz is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against Nick Martinez for the Reds. BSFL is carrying this one on TV.

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Cincinnati vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Marlins
• Where: loanDepot Park Miami
• Date: Monday, August 5th
• Betting Odds CIN -141 | MIA +119 O/U 8.5

Cincinnati is sending Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Marlins, and he comes into the game with a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 3.65. Martinez has made 31 appearances this season, and he most recently pitched on August 2nd out of the bullpen. In that outing, he went one inning, giving up one earned run, two hits, and two walks. Martinez finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight games. One of those wins came out of the bullpen. His ERA for the season is 2.67 on the road compared to 3.65 at home.

Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario have been the Reds’ top power hitters this season, as they are both tied for 14th in the league with 18 home runs. De La Cruz comes into the game with a batting average of .255, while Candelario is batting just .227. Candelario has struggled of late, going 4/28 in his last eight games, including two home runs. Spencer Steer is the team’s top run producer, as he has gone deep 15 times and has driven in 65 runs.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are batting just .227, which is 22nd in the MLB. Their team on-base percentage of .302 is also 21st in the league. Currently, Nick Martini is on a three-game hitting streak for the Reds.

• The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Cincinnati has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

Roddery Muñoz will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Rays. In that start, he went 5 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Muñoz has made 12 starts and two of them have been quality starts. His record for the season is 2-5, and he has an ERA of 5.46. Opponents are batting .226 off Muñoz this season, and his ERA at home is 6.85 compared to 4.86 on the road. So far, he has allowed 19 home runs and is averaging 7.77 strikeouts per nine innings.

Over his last eight games, Jake Burger has been on fire for the Marlins, batting .333 with four homers and eight RBIs. This has helped him take over the team lead in RBIs, and his 17 homers this season is 15th in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he is 2nd on the team with 12 homers.

As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in scoring, averaging just 3.6 runs per game. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting just .238 and have the league’s worst on-base percentage. Miami also doesn’t walk much and has the worst isolated power figure in the league.

• The Marlins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Marlins are 6-4
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Miami has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

Reds Eye Critical Wins Against Struggling Marlins in Wild-Card Push

The Cincinnati Reds are gearing up for a make-or-break series that could shape their postseason destiny. As they face off against the Miami Marlins in a four-game showdown starting Monday night, every game is a must-win. The Reds are hanging by a thread in the National League wild-card race, and despite the Marlins’ poor overall record, their recent uptick in performance means the Reds need to bring their A-game.

Reds’ Wild-Card Chase

Sitting at a 53-58 record, the Reds are on the cusp of the wild-card hunt. It’s been a rollercoaster season, but their playoff dreams are still alive if they can capitalize on this series against the Marlins. Each game from here on out is pivotal, and the Reds know it.

Marlins’ Recent Form

Don’t let the Marlins’ 42-70 record fool you. They may have the third-worst record in MLB, but they’ve been feisty lately. They just wrapped up a 5-4 road trip, which included two straight wins over the Braves. The Reds can’t afford to underestimate them.

Key Performers for the Marlins

• Jonah Bride: Bride has been on fire with eight straight starts and three homers in his last five games, including a clutch three-run homer in a 7-0 win against the Braves.
• Otto Lopez: While Lopez’s .227 average isn’t exactly stellar compared to last year’s second baseman Luis Arraez, he’s still a key player in their lineup.
• Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Both were traded but left their mark earlier in the season.
• Tanner Scott: Now with the Padres, Scott was a force as a former closer, with a 1.18 ERA and 18 saves.

Reds’ Pitching Strategy

• Nick Martinez: Hailing from Miami, Martinez holds a 5-5 record and a 3.65 ERA. Though he’s struggled as a starter this season with a 0-3 record and 7.36 ERA, he has a stellar track record against the Marlins, boasting a 3-0 record and a 1.23 ERA in nine appearances.

Marlins’ Rookie Pitcher

• Roddery Munoz: The Marlins are countering with rookie Munoz, who has a 2-5 record and a 5.45 ERA. He’s had a tough time at home with a 6.43 ERA in six games and needs to step up his first-inning performances, where he’s sporting a 7.50 ERA.

Jonathan India’s Impact

• Jonathan India: The Reds’ second baseman and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year, India is crucial to their lineup. Born in Fort Lauderdale, India has deep ties to South Florida. This season, he’s racked up nine home runs and a .767 OPS, making a significant impact on the Reds’ offense.

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Series Outlook

This series against the Marlins is a golden opportunity for the Reds to boost their postseason chances. They need to leverage their more potent lineup and seasoned pitching staff to secure these vital wins. Despite the Marlins’ shaky record, their recent form suggests the Reds can’t take them lightly.

The Lean

For a money-line pick, our lean would be to take the Reds to come out on top. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 4th highest-scoring game of today’s slate. This game has the 2nd lowest combined home run projection, and Cincinnati starter Nick Martinez has the 6th worst strikeout projection among today’s starters.