Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions August 7th 2024

Marlins again try to stop Elly De La Cruz, Reds

The Reds and Marlins are set to face off in an NL matchup at 6:40 PM ET. This one is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Reds are the favorites on the money line (-148) compared to the Marlins at +125. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Andrew Abbott is starting for the Reds, and he is facing off against Valente Bellozo. The Reds are 55-58 this season, while the Marlins are 42-72, and they are looking to end a two-game losing streak. BSOH is carrying this game on TV.

Cincinnati vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Marlins
• Where: loanDepot Park Miami
• Date: Wednesday, August 7th
• Betting Odds CIN -148 | MIA +125 O/U 8.5

The Reds Can Win If…

Cincinnati is sending Andrew Abbott to the mound today vs. the Marlins, and he comes into the game with a record of 9-8 and an ERA of 3.41. This year, he has made 22 starts, and opponents are batting .229 off the left-hander. In his 22 appearances, Abbott has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Abbott took the loss vs. the Giants, giving up two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight outings.

Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Reds of late, going 13/34 in his last eight games, including two homers. For the season, he is batting .268 and is leading the team with 20 homers. Spencer Steer is also among the league leaders in homers, but he is hitting just .226 for the season.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. Their team batting average of .230 is 20th in the league, and they are also below average in terms of on-base percentage and slugging. Collectively, the Reds are 6th in the league in isolated power.

• The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cincinnati has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Marlins Can Win If…

Valente Bellozo will be making his first start of the season at home against the Reds. He has started 2 games so far, going 5 innings in each. His last start was a no-decision vs. the Braves, and he took the loss in his first start of the season vs. the Red Sox.

For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. Their home and road splits are pretty similar, with the team averaging 4 runs per game at home and 3.2 on the road. As a team, they are batting .237, which is 16th in the league.

Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/33 in his last eight games with four homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting just .236, but his 17 homers are 14th in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also near the top of the league in homers, as his 13 is 2nd on the team and 2nd in the league. Sánchez is also 2nd on the team with 42 RBIs.

• The Marlins are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Marlins are 6-4
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Miami has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money-line pick, we would be leaning toward the Reds to come out on top. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 4th highest-scoring game of the day. These teams are also projected to have the 4th most hits. However, there isn’t expected to be a ton of home runs, as this game has the 3rd lowest home run projection. Between the two starters, we have Andrew Abbott finishing with more strikeouts than Valente Bellozo for the Marlins.

The Miami Marlins have a pressing issue as they continue their series against the Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz. This young phenom has been a major thorn in their side, and the Marlins need to find a way to contain him if they hope to turn the tide in this matchup. As the two teams meet for the third game of a four-game series, the Marlins must strategize effectively to neutralize De La Cruz’s impact and compete against a well-rounded Reds lineup.

Elly De La Cruz: A Rising Star

Elly De La Cruz has quickly emerged as one of the most exciting young talents in baseball. Standing at 6-foot-5, this shortstop combines power, speed, and athleticism in a way that is rarely seen. In the current series against the Marlins, De La Cruz has been virtually unstoppable, going 8-for-10 with five RBIs, five runs, four doubles, and two homers.

Performance Highlights

• Impressive Stats: De La Cruz has showcased his ability to perform under pressure, contributing significantly to the Reds’ victories in the series.
• Adaptability: His capability to hit both off-speed pitches and fastballs with ease makes him a challenging opponent for pitchers.

Reds manager David Bell has praised De La Cruz not only for his skills but also for his work ethic and positive impact on the team. “It’s fun to watch him every day,” Bell said. “His teammates love him. He’s a great person, and he continues to work to get better.”

The Challenge for the Marlins

The Marlins have struggled to find an effective strategy against De La Cruz. According to Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, the team has tried various approaches, but none have succeeded in stopping the Reds’ young star. Schumaker even compared De La Cruz to Fernando Tatis Jr., another elite player known for his dynamic playstyle.

Defensive Strategies

• Pitch Selection: The Marlins need to focus on varying their pitch selection to keep De La Cruz off balance.
• Field Positioning: Proper field placement can help limit the damage caused by his powerful hits.

Schumaker acknowledged the difficulty in containing De La Cruz: “Elly is a special player — the size, the speed, the strength, the power,” he said. “Anything we throw up there — off-speed or with any life — he is hitting. We have to figure out a different way to attack him, and we have tried different ways. But he’s still hitting.”

Cincinnati Reds: A Formidable Lineup

While De La Cruz is a major focus, the Reds’ success is not solely dependent on him. The team boasts a strong lineup with several players contributing to their offensive firepower.

Key Contributors

• Tyler Stephenson: The Reds’ catcher has been on a hot streak, hitting eight home runs in his last 22 games. With a career-high 14 homers this season, Stephenson adds depth to the Reds’ batting order.
• Team Dynamics: The Reds are a well-coached team, blending young talent with experienced veterans. Their ability to execute plays and run the bases efficiently makes them a challenging opponent.

“The Reds have a good, young lineup with some veterans in between. They get good at-bats up and down the lineup,” Schumaker commented. “They are a tough matchup because they also run the bases well, and they are coached well.”

The Marlins’ Struggles

The Marlins are in a rebuilding phase, facing numerous challenges this season. Their performance at home has been less than stellar, with a 22-36 record that underscores their struggles.

Team Development

• Rebuilding Phase: The Marlins are working to develop their roster and improve team dynamics.
• Consistency: Finding consistency in both pitching and hitting remains a key goal for the team.

Upcoming Pitching Matchup

The third game of the series will feature an intriguing pitching duel between Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott and Marlins rookie right-hander Valente Bellozo.

Andrew Abbott (Reds)

• Background: Abbott, a 25-year-old pitcher drafted in the second round by the Reds in 2021, has shown promise but faces challenges in maintaining consistency.
• Season Performance: With a 9-8 record and a 3.41 ERA, Abbott has had a mixed season. After a strong run of starts, his recent performances have been less consistent, with a 5.40 ERA in his last four outings.
• Previous Encounter with Marlins: In his only previous start against Miami, Abbott struggled, giving up five runs on seven hits in just over three innings, although he avoided a loss.

Valente Bellozo (Marlins)

• Debut Season: Bellozo, a 24-year-old rookie from Mexico, is still finding his footing in the major leagues. Acquired from the Houston Astros earlier this year, he has made three starts but is yet to secure a win.
• Performance Highlights: In his most recent outing against Atlanta, Bellozo pitched five innings, allowing two runs on two hits and two walks, with five strikeouts.
• Opportunities for Growth: Bellozo’s development is a key focus for the Marlins as they look to build a competitive roster.

Conclusion

The Miami Marlins face a significant challenge in containing Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds. With De La Cruz’s impressive performance and the Reds’ strong lineup, the Marlins must develop effective strategies to compete. The upcoming pitching matchup between Abbott and Bellozo will be crucial in determining the outcome of the series. As the Marlins continue their rebuilding phase, finding ways to counteract the Reds’ strengths will be essential for their growth and success.

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