Ny Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions August 18th 2024

There does appear to be a chance of rain in New York on Sunday, as the forecasted temperature is 75 degrees. The Marlins and Mets are playing at Citi Field in New York, and first pitch is set for 12:05 PM ET.

New York is currently on a two-game winning streak, and they are 64-59 overall. The Mets are favored on the money line for Sunday’s matchup at -197, while the Marlins are +165. Today’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs. Miami will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak. Valente Bellozo is starting for the Marlins, while the Mets are going with Paul Blackburn.

Valente Bellozo has been solid in his first two starts of the season, picking up wins in both outings. He went 5 2/3 innings in his last start, striking out 4 and giving up 4 hits. Bellozo has yet to give up an earned run this season, as he went 7 innings in his first start, giving up 4 hits.

Coming into today’s game, Jake Burger has been on a tear for the Marlins, going 8/19 in his last five games with three homers and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .254 with a team-high 55 RBIs and 24 homers, which is 12th best in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also near the top of the Marlins’ home run leaderboard, as he has 15 homers this season.

As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .237, and their team on-base percentage of .292 is 22nd in the league.

New York is sending Paul Blackburn to the mound today vs. the Marlins. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 5-3 with a 4.43 ERA. Blackburn’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22. In his 12 starts, he has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 7.25 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Blackburn took the loss vs. the Athletics, giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came vs. the Marlins, where he allowed one earned run in six innings of work.

Francisco Lindor has been red hot at the plate for the Mets, going 17/43 in his last 10 games with two homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him move into the team’s top spot in RBIs for the season. Overall, he is batting .265 with 24 homers. Pete Alonso also has a strong home run total, as his 27 long balls are the best on the team and 3rd in the league. However, he is batting just .243 for the season and has gone deep four times in his last 10 games.

As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 5th ranked home run hitting team in the league and have the 8th best team batting average.

Mets Poised for Sweep Against Marlins

The New York Mets are on the verge of completing a three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins on Sunday, fueled by stellar performances from their starting pitchers. With Paul Blackburn set to take the mound, the Mets are determined to keep their momentum going as they continue to chase a National League wild-card spot.

Mets’ Pitching Dominance

The Mets have been unstoppable in this series, thanks to outstanding outings from Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. Manaea set the tone on Friday with a strong seven-inning performance, allowing just three runs in a 7-3 victory. Severino followed up with a gem on Saturday, tossing the Mets’ first nine-inning shutout in over three years, leading New York to a 4-0 win. Severino’s four-hit shutout was the first for the Mets since Jacob deGrom’s two-hitter against the Washington Nationals in April 2021.

These dominant starts have been a breath of fresh air for a Mets bullpen that had been heavily taxed over the previous week, during which the team’s starters struggled with a 6.83 ERA. With only one reliever used in the first two games of the series, the bullpen heads into Sunday’s finale well-rested—a crucial advantage as the Mets prepare for a tough schedule with no days off until August 26.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza highlighted the importance of these back-to-back strong starts, saying, “For us to stay away from a lot of different guys, it’s a reset, and they needed it.”

Paul Blackburn’s Redemption Opportunity

Paul Blackburn, acquired from the Oakland Athletics on July 30, will get the start for the Mets in the series finale. Blackburn is eager to rebound from a rough debut at Citi Field, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) over four innings in a 9-4 loss to his former team, the Athletics.

Despite that tough outing, Blackburn has shown promise this season with a 5-3 record and a 4.43 ERA. He has limited experience against the Marlins, with a 1-0 record and a 4.50 ERA in two career starts. Sunday’s game offers Blackburn a chance to prove his value to the Mets as they push for a playoff spot.

Marlins Turn to Valente Bellozo Amid Rotation Struggles

The Marlins, on the other hand, have been grappling with issues in their starting rotation throughout the series. Rookie Max Meyer’s four-inning outing on Saturday was the latest in a string of struggles, with 12 of the Marlins’ last 15 starters failing to pitch into the sixth inning.

Amid these challenges, Valente Bellozo has been a bright spot for Miami. The rookie right-hander, boasting a 2-1 record with a 2.28 ERA, has been a consistent performer since his promotion to the majors. Bellozo has thrown at least five innings in each of his five starts, including a standout seven-inning, scoreless performance against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier in the week.

“He’s just electric,” said Marlins infielder Jake Burger. “His energy is unbelievable. He gets the boys fired up, and he works fast. He’s got all the confidence in the world — and that’s what you want in a starting pitcher.”

Bellozo will be making his first career start against the Mets, and the Marlins are counting on him to deliver another strong outing to avoid the sweep.

Game Implications: Crucial for the Wild-Card Race

With the Mets just a game behind the Atlanta Braves for the final National League wild-card spot, Sunday’s game is crucial. A sweep of the Marlins would not only give the Mets a significant boost in the standings but also sustain the momentum from two consecutive dominant pitching performances.

For the Marlins, avoiding the sweep is key as they try to stabilize their rotation and build confidence heading into the final stretch of the season. Bellozo’s performance will be critical in giving Miami a chance to salvage a win and prevent the Mets from gaining further ground.

Mets Seek Sweep as Blackburn Eyes Rebound

As the New York Mets and Miami Marlins face off in the series finale, the Mets are in a strong position to complete the sweep and keep their playoff hopes alive. With Paul Blackburn looking to bounce back from a tough debut and Valente Bellozo aiming to stabilize the Marlins’ rotation, Sunday’s game is set to be a pivotal contest for both teams. The Mets’ recent pitching dominance and their well-rested bullpen give them the edge as they look to close out the series with a win.

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over in this Marlins vs. Mets matchup. This is projected to be the 10th highest-scoring game of today’s slate, and the 4th lowest in terms of hits. As for a winner, we are leaning toward the Mets to come out on top. Paul Blackburn is our 2nd highest projected starter in terms of innings pitched, and Valente Bellozo has the 11th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.