Ny Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 17th 2024

The money line odds for Tuesday’s Nationals vs. Mets matchup have the Mets as the favorite, with their line sitting at -163 compared to the Nationals at +139. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s.

First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET, and SNY will be televising this matchup. Mitchell Parker is starting for the Nationals, and the Mets are going with Tylor Megill. Washington is 4th in the NL East, while the Mets are 2nd and 82-68 overall.

Washington vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Nationals at Mets
• Where: Citi Field New York
• Date: Tuesday, September 17th
• Betting Odds NYM -163 | WSH +139 O/U 7.5

The Nationals Can Win If…

Washington is sending left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound today vs. the Mets. Parker has made 27 starts this year and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.24. So far, he has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 8.03 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Parker finished with a no-decision, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts. Parker’s ERA on the road is 11.06 compared to 3.49 at home.

So far this season, the Nationals are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in terms of home runs and have a team slugging percentage of just .378. However, they have been good at putting the ball in play, as their team strikeout numbers are the 5th best in the league. Washington’s top two power hitters are CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., who have 20 and 16 homers, respectively.

Looking at the Nationals’ recent games, James Wood has hit just .222 over his last five games but does have two homers in that stretch. Wood is also on a five-game hitting streak. As a team, they will be looking to get their offense going, as they have scored more than four runs just once in their last five games.

• The Nationals are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Nationals are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Washington has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Nationals have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Nationals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Washington has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

The Mets Can Win If…

New York is sending right-hander Tylor Megill to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 3-5 with an ERA of 4.48. Megill’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.32. In his 13 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Megill finished with a no-decision vs. the Blue Jays. In that start, he went six innings, giving up no runs on nine hits. Megill has not lost a game since August 14th.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been a great 1-2 punch in the Mets lineup this season, as Alonso is batting .242 with a team-high 32 home runs, and Lindor is hitting .271 with 31 homers. Lindor also leads the Mets with 86 RBIs. Over his last six games, Lindor has gone 4/20 with two homers, while Jose Iglesias has gone 9/24 in that span.

As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. This is the 9th best mark in the league. Overall, they are batting .247 and have the 8th best on-base percentage in the league.

• The Mets are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mets are 7-3
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

Mets Aim to Hold Wild-Card Lead as Francisco Lindor Sits with Injury

The New York Mets will likely be without star shortstop Francisco Lindor for the second straight game on Tuesday as they face the Washington Nationals in the second game of their three-game series at Citi Field. Lindor, dealing with a lower back injury, is expected to rest again after an MRI revealed no structural damage. While his absence is notable, the Mets have shown resilience, securing a 2-1 walk-off win on Monday night to stay firmly in the National League wild-card race.

Lindor’s Absence and Team Morale

Despite missing one of their key players, the Mets have continued to perform well. Starling Marte delivered a game-winning RBI single in the 10th inning on Monday, marking the team’s 20th win in their last 29 games, a stretch that includes an impressive nine-game winning streak. With Lindor out, Jose Iglesias stepped up, recording two hits and driving in the game-tying run in the eighth inning. Iglesias is expected to continue filling in for Lindor on Tuesday.

Lindor remains positive about his recovery and is actively supporting his teammates from the sidelines. “I’ll be the biggest cheerleader probably the next couple of days,” Lindor said.

Tylor Megill Takes the Mound for New York

The Mets will rely on Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.48 ERA) to keep their momentum going. Megill has been sharp since rejoining the rotation in late August, posting a 2.35 ERA across three starts. His most recent performance was a dominant six-inning, one-hit showing against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sept. 9. Though he didn’t earn a decision, Megill has found a rhythm as the Mets look to solidify their playoff standing.

Megill has faced the Nationals seven times in his career, holding a 4-2 record with a 5.83 ERA against them. He’ll look to improve those numbers as the Mets fight to maintain their National League wild-card position, currently one game ahead of the Atlanta Braves.

Nationals Look to Bounce Back

The Washington Nationals, now 6-4 in their last 10 games, will be looking to bounce back after falling just short in Monday’s series opener. Despite a strong outing from Jake Irvin, who allowed only two runs over 7 1/3 innings, the Nationals were 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, a major factor in their loss. Jose Tena drove in Washington’s only run, and after the game, manager Dave Martinez expressed both pride in the team’s effort and frustration with the missed opportunities.

Mitchell Parker (7-9, 4.24 ERA) will take the mound for the Nationals on Tuesday. Parker has shown flashes of brilliance this season and is coming off two solid starts, including a 6 1/3-inning outing last Thursday against the Miami Marlins, where he allowed two unearned runs. He’ll face the Mets for the second time this season after giving up five runs over six innings in a no-decision on July 3.

Mets Focus on Playoff Push

With the Mets currently in sole possession of the third wild-card spot, every game matters as they aim to hold off teams like the Braves. Starling Marte, who provided the heroics on Monday, will be crucial in keeping the offense rolling in Lindor’s absence. The Mets’ ability to find contributions from across the lineup has been key during their recent surge.

The Nationals, while not in contention, can play the role of spoiler, and with Mitchell Parker on the mound, they’ll look to disrupt New York’s playoff aspirations.

Key Injuries and Updates

• Francisco Lindor (lower back) is expected to sit out Tuesday’s game but is not expected to need a long stint on the bench.
• For Washington, Oneil Cruz remains questionable as he continues to deal with lingering soreness.

As the series continues, the Mets will look to extend their winning streak and further solidify their position in the postseason race, while the Nationals aim to capitalize on opportunities and play the spoiler role.

The Lean

Today’s Nationals vs. Mets game is projected to be a low-scoring game, but with the over/under line sitting at 7.5 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning towards the Mets to pick up the win. Between the two starters, we have Tylor Megill as the better strikeout option.