New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions August 21st 2024

Cole Irvin returns to banged-up Orioles for start vs. Mets

Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Orioles and Mets is set to get started at 1:10 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The Orioles are currently 74-53, while the Mets are 65-61, and they are favored on the money line today at -134. The money line odds for a Baltimore win are sitting at +113, and the Orioles are leading the AL East, while the Mets are third in the NL East.

Today’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the game can be seen on MLBN. Sean Manaea is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Cole Irvin for the Orioles.

Baltimore vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Orioles at Mets
• Where: Citi Field New York
• Date: Wednesday, August 21st
• Betting Odds NYM -134 | BAL +113 O/U 8.5

The Orioles Can Win If…

Cole Irvin is getting the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Mets on the road. So far this season, he has made 14 starts and has a record of 6-5 with an ERA of 4.85. Irvin’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.41. Looking back at his last outing, he came out of the bullpen and finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he went three innings and gave up one earned run on five hits. Before that, he had put together three straight scoreless outings. Irvin has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three appearances.

Not only are the Orioles the best home run hitting team in the league, but they also have the best isolated power numbers in the MLB. Baltimore is 3rd in the league in runs per game (5.1) and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .255, which is 5th in the league.

Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson have been two of the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Santander’s 37 homers leading the team and Henderson’s 33 homers being the 2nd most on the team. Henderson is batting .287 for the season and has gone 4/9 with four homers over his last nine games. During this stretch, he also has nine RBIs.

• The Orioles are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Orioles are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Baltimore has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Orioles have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Orioles are 6-4
• Looking back across the Orioles last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Baltimore has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Orioles have averaged 5.5 runs per game on offense

The Mets Can Win If…

Sean Manaea will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just three earned runs in seven innings of work. In that start vs. the Marlins, he gave up four hits, five walks, and one homer. Looking back further, Manaea has made nine straight starts without giving up more than three earned runs. He has a record of 9-5 this season, along with an ERA of 3.46 and WHIP of 1.21. Opponents are batting .211 off the left-hander this season. Manaea’s ERA at home is 4.48 compared to 3.45 on the road.

Coming into the game, the Mets are 5th in the league in home runs and are 10th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Not only are the Mets one of the top home run-hitting teams in the league, but they also have a solid team batting average of .249. Over their last eight games, both Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have two homers apiece, with Lindor hitting .333 during this stretch and Alonso batting .276.

Brandon Nimmo has had a rough stretch at the plate for the Mets, hitting just .217 over his last six games. However, he is on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting just .229, but his on-base percentage is a solid .342. Nimmo and Mark Vientos are tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 72.

• The Mets are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mets are 4-6
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 3.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over in this Orioles vs. Mets matchup. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Orioles to pick up the win. Looking at today’s starters, Cole Irvin has the 2nd best odds to work deep into the game, while Sean Manaea has the 6th worst odds among today’s starters.

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The Baltimore Orioles are set to lean on left-hander Cole Irvin as they navigate a critical juncture in their season, facing off against the New York Mets in the decisive game of their three-game interleague series on Wednesday afternoon. Irvin’s return comes amid a flurry of injuries that have severely impacted the Orioles’ starting rotation.

Injury Woes and Pitching Challenges for the Orioles

The Orioles’ pitching staff has been plagued by injuries, leaving the team scrambling to fill crucial roles. The latest blow came with the placement of right-hander Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation. Eflin, who had been a reliable presence since his acquisition from the Tampa Bay Rays, joins a growing list of sidelined starters, including Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, John Means, and Kyle Bradish—all out for the season after undergoing elbow surgeries.

With Eflin’s unexpected departure, Baltimore has turned to Cole Irvin, recalling him from Triple-A Norfolk. Irvin, who last pitched for the Orioles on July 29, has had a rocky season, posting a 4.85 ERA with a 6-5 record. His recent stint in Triple-A was modest, with a 4.05 ERA over two starts. However, his history against the Mets is concerning, with an 8.22 ERA in four career appearances.

Bullpen Brings Stability Amid Chaos

Despite the ongoing struggles with their rotation, the Orioles’ bullpen provided a glimmer of hope in their recent 9-5 victory over the Mets. After nearly squandering a six-run lead, relievers Yennier Cano and Craig Kimbrel combined to secure the win, showcasing a much-needed resurgence.

Cano, who has been inconsistent of late, delivered a perfect outing, retiring all three batters he faced, including a critical groundout from Francisco Alvarez. Meanwhile, Kimbrel, who has struggled mightily since mid-July, recorded his first clean outing since July 5, potentially signaling a turnaround in his performance.

“Fortunately, we got a four-run lead there and gave Craig a little bit of breathing room with one out,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde noted. “Trying to get him going. Also trying to get these guys going in the ‘pen, and Craig did a great job getting the last two outs.”

Mets Facing Their Own Rotation Woes

The New York Mets are not without their own challenges. Their rotation depth has been tested, particularly with the poor form of José Quintana, who allowed seven runs over five innings in Tuesday’s loss. Quintana has struggled mightily since mid-July, holding a 6.27 ERA over his last seven starts.

The Mets are also contending with injuries to key pitchers, including Kodai Senga and Christian Scott, both of whom are likely sidelined for the remainder of the regular season. With limited options in Triple-A Syracuse, where Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi have struggled, the Mets’ rotation remains vulnerable.

Wednesday’s starter for the Mets, Sean Manaea, brings a mixed record into the game. While he earned a win in his last start, allowing three runs over seven innings against the Miami Marlins, his past encounters with the Orioles have been less successful. Manaea holds a 16.88 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore, raising questions about his ability to contain the Orioles’ lineup.

What’s at Stake?

With both teams battling injuries, Wednesday’s game could be pivotal for setting the tone as they head deeper into the season. The Orioles, despite their battered rotation, have shown resilience, with offensive contributions from players like Anthony Santander and James McCann, who both homered in Tuesday’s game.

For the Orioles, a strong performance from Cole Irvin could solidify his place as a reliable arm in the absence of their regular starters. On the other hand, the Mets are looking for consistency from Manaea to avoid further instability in their rotation.

Conclusion

As the Orioles and Mets gear up for the final game of their series, all eyes will be on the pitchers. Both teams are under pressure to find solutions within their ranks, with Irvin and Manaea facing the challenge of stepping up when their teams need them most. The outcome of this game could have lasting implications for both clubs as they navigate the choppy waters of the regular season.