Ny Mets Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 19th 2024

Thursday’s matchup between the Phillies and Mets has a first pitch set for 7:15 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The Phillies are 91-61 and they are starting Taijuan Walker, while the Mets have won three straight and are 2nd in the NL East with an overall record of 84-68. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets.

New York comes into the game as the heavy favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -141 compared to the Phillies at +120. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and FOX will be televising this NL East matchup.

Philadelphia vs. New York Key Information

Taijuan Walker is looking to bounce back from a rough outing out of the bullpen, as he gets the start for the Phillies today. In that appearance, he went 3 innings vs. the Mets and didn’t give up a run. He finished with a no-decision in the outing. Walker has made 14 starts this year and has a record of 3-6 with a 6.29 ERA. Opponents are batting .300 off Walker this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.63. For the year, he has given up 20 homers. Walker’s ERA on the road is 7.9 compared to 5.64 at home.

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th). They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .258. The Phillies have also been very good at avoiding strikeouts and are 7th in the league in walks.

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Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have been two of the Phillies’ most consistent hitters this season, as both are batting .288. Harper has gone 13/38 in his last 10 games, including three homers, and is 2nd on the team with 84 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber has been the team’s top power threat, as his 35 homers are 7th best in the league. He is also on a three-game hitting streak.

The Mets are sending right-hander Luis Severino to the mound today vs. the Phillies. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 10-6 with an ERA of 3.77. Opponents have a batting average of .229 vs. Severino this season. In his 29 starts, Severino has one complete game shutout and 13 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work vs. the Phillies. Before that outing, he hadn’t allowed more than one earned run in three straight starts.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, as they are both near the top of the league in home runs and are tied for the team lead in RBIs. Lindor is batting .271 for the season and is currently on a four-game hitting streak, while Alonso is hitting .246 for the season. Over his last nine games, Francisco Alvarez has three home runs and is batting .259.

As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. Their team batting average of .248 is 8th in the league, and they are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Currently, they have a few players on some nice hitting streaks, including Jose Iglesias, who is 15/38 over his last 10 games.

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is our highest projected scoring game of the day, and for a money line pick, we are leaning towards the Phillies to come out on top. Philadelphia’s offense has our 2nd highest team hits projection, and Taijuan Walker has the 4th worst starter projection in terms of strikeouts. On the other side, Luis Severino has the 11th best projection among today’s starters.

Mets Riding Momentum Into Critical Series Against Phillies

The New York Mets are going into a significant four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies, riding a flood of certainty after several champion exhibitions at the plate. With the end of the season games reachable, the not set in stone to make major areas of strength for a for one of the National League’s wild-card spots, while likewise wanting to keep the Phillies from securing their division title before them.

Falling off three sequential successes, the Mets (84-68) have wound up in a key position. They’ll have the Phillies (91-61) for a series that could essentially influence the NL East standings and the wild-card race.

Strong Offensive Performances Power the Mets

In their most recent series, the Mets faced off against the Washington Nationals, sweeping them in three games. The highlight came in their 10-0 victory on Wednesday, where the Mets exploded with a nine-run fourth inning.

Brandon Nimmo provided the spark with a three-run homer, following his earlier run-scoring play off Tyrone Taylor’s RBI double in the same inning.

This offensive outburst allowed the Mets to close the gap between them and the Phillies in the standings. Now, they sit seven games behind the division leaders and are within striking distance. A four-game sweep in this series could reduce that deficit to just three games with six left in the season.

Perhaps more crucially, the Mets maintained their two-game lead over the Atlanta Braves for the third wild-card spot. They’re also tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second spot and trail the San Diego Padres by just 2.5 games for the top wild-card berth.

“We’re feeling confident,” said Mets manager Carlos Mendoza. “We’ve been playing great baseball, but we’re not looking too far ahead. The Phillies are a tough team, but so are we, and the guys are ready to go.”

Mets’ Lineup Continues to Evolve

Rookie Luisangel Acuna has stepped up in recent games, starting at shortstop while Francisco Lindor deals with a lower back injury. If Lindor misses Thursday’s opener, Acuna will likely get the nod again.

While the Mets have been hitting their stride, they’ll face a tough Phillies team. Philadelphia, leading the NL East since May 3, has a magic number of one to clinch their playoff spot and a magic number of four to secure their first division title since 2011. Despite their solid overall performance, the Phillies have shown some vulnerability, particularly in their recent series against the Milwaukee Brewers, where they lost two out of three games.

Phillies’ Struggles at the Plate Raise Questions

Philadelphia’s offense, while powerful throughout much of the season, has faltered recently. In their series against the Brewers, the Phillies struck out a staggering 40 times and struggled to convert opportunities, going just 3-for-23 with runners in scoring position.

“We’re not panicking,” said Alec Bohm, who homered in the second inning of Wednesday’s 2-1 loss. “Sure, we could’ve put the ball in play more, but we’ve been facing some pretty good pitching.”

This dip in offensive production is something the Mets will aim to capitalize on, especially as they’ve been on a tear offensively.

Mets’ Pitching Takes Center Stage

Right-hander Luis Severino (10-6, 3.77 ERA) is set to start for the Mets in the series opener. Severino has been a rock for the Mets, posting a 1.86 ERA over his last six starts. While he didn’t get the decision in his most recent outing against the Phillies, he pitched well, allowing three runs on three hits over six innings.

“It’s all about staying locked in,” said Severino. “I’ve been feeling good lately, and I just want to keep that momentum going.”

Severino’s history against the Phillies is empowering, with a profession ERA of 2.08 against them in two beginnings. In his last beginning against Philadelphia, he permitted two grand slams, yet the Mets will expect serious areas of strength for an as they attempt to broaden their series of wins.

Phillies’ Pitching Woes

Meanwhile, the Phillies will counter with right-hander Taijuan Walker (3-6, 6.29 ERA). Walker has struggled mightily this season, especially in recent months. Since May 11, he has gone 0-6 with a 6.75 ERA over 14 appearances, and his last victory seems like a distant memory.

Walker made a brief appearance in relief against the Mets last Saturday, pitching three scoreless innings. However, his most recent start on August 28 against the Houston Astros was a disaster, where he gave up six runs on 13 hits over six innings.

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“It’s been a rough stretch, but I’m trying to find my groove,” said Walker. “It’s been a tough season, but I’m not giving up.”

Walker’s struggles against New York are well-documented. He holds a 1-3 record with a 3.18 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Mets, which may give New York’s offense a golden opportunity to keep their hot streak alive.

Conclusion

As the Mets and Phillies conflict in this urgent series, the two groups have a ton on the line. For the Mets, it’s tied in with keeping up with their hang on a trump card spot and creeping nearer to the highest point of the NL East. For the Phillies, the stakes are comparably high, as they hope to secure their division title and secure areas of strength for a position.

The two groups bring their assets — the Mets’ flooding offense and strong pitching, and the Phillies’ general consistency this season — however with the tension building, it’s anybody’s series. The stage is set for an intriguing four-game fight, with the result possibly molding the remainder of the time for the two clubs.