Ny Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

Phillies would clinch NL East with win over Mets

From Citi Field in New York, we have the Phillies and Mets facing off in an NL East matchup. This one gets started at 4:10 PM ET, and the Phillies are the slight money line favorite (-108). The money line odds are almost even for the Mets at -109, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.

SNY will be televising this one, and Sean Manaea will be on the mound for the Mets. The Phillies are starting Ranger Suarez and are 92-62, which has them first in the NL East. The Mets are 85-69 and are second in the division.

Philadelphia vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Phillies at Mets
• Where: Citi Field New York
• Date: Saturday, September 21st
• Betting Odds NYM -109 | PHI -108 O/U 7.5

The Phillies Can Win If…

Ranger Suárez will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Brewers, as he gets the start for the Phillies today. In that start, which came on September 16th, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last four outings, Suárez has finished with a no-decision, win, loss, and loss. His overall record for the season is 12-7, and he has an ERA of 3.13. Suárez has one complete game shutout this year and 11 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 2.26 walks compared to 8.71 strikeouts.

So far this season, the Phillies are the 4th highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average (.259) and have the league’s 3rd best on-base percentage. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and OPS.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are two of the Phillies’ top power threats, with Harper having 29 homers this season (14th in the MLB) and Schwarber leading the team with 35 long balls (8th in the league). Schwarber also comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak. Harper has struggled a bit at the plate of late, hitting just .235 over his last nine games.

• The Phillies are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 5-5
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 5.7 runs per game on offense

The Mets Can Win If…

Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Phillies at home. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 11-5 with an ERA of 3.26. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.08, and opponents are batting .194 off him this year. Manaea has turned in 14 quality starts and is averaging 9.32 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in seven innings of work. Before that, he had gone 6 2/3 innings without giving up an earned run in three straight outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Mets offense is 5th in the league in runs per game at 4.8. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 8th in the MLB, and are also near the top of the league in both on-base percentage and slugging. One of the reasons they have been so good offensively is their home run power, as they are 6th in the league in homers.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with 31 and 34 homers, respectively. Lindor is batting .271 for the season and Alonso comes in at .244. Over his last 10 games, Jose Iglesias has been on fire, going 17/41 with 11 runs scored. During this stretch, he has a current 14-game hitting streak.

• The Mets are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 6.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mets are 7-3
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• New York has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

As the Phillies and Mets face off today, we are leaning towards the Phillies to come out on top. We also are leaning towards these two teams going over the over/under line of 7.5 runs. This game has the 4th highest combined run projection and 5th highest home run projection. Looking at today’s starters, Sean Manaea has the 7th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

With a dominant 12-2 victory on Friday night, the Philadelphia Phillies not only secured a playoff spot but moved within one game of clinching the National League East (NL East) title. Their win over the New York Mets reduced the Phillies’ magic number to one, setting the stage for a potential division title clinch in the next game.

Phillies Edge Closer to NL East Crown

Friday’s win officially guaranteed the Phillies (92-62) no worse than a wild-card berth, marking their third consecutive trip to the postseason. Alec Bohm led the offensive charge with four hits, including a home run and four RBIs, as Philadelphia dominated New York.

The victory positions the Phillies to clinch the NL East as early as Saturday when they face the Mets again in the third game of a four-game series. A win on Saturday would not only seal the division but also further solidify their case as World Series contenders.

“It’s difficult to get to this point,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson remarked after Friday’s win, acknowledging the challenges overcome during the season. “The goal is now firmly entrenched: to win a World Series.”

Mets’ Playoff Push Faces Setbacks

Despite their loss, the Mets (85-69) remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, thanks to a remarkable midseason turnaround. After struggling early and falling 11 games below .500, New York posted the best record in baseball since June 2 (61-34), clawing their way back into contention.

Friday’s defeat snapped a four-game winning streak for the Mets, who had been red-hot, scoring 10 runs in each of their previous three games — a franchise first. However, the absence of star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who is out with a sore back, has left a noticeable void in their lineup. Lindor, who received a facet injection on Thursday, has been participating in baseball activities but remains uncertain for upcoming games. “I believe in what the guys have,” Lindor said of his team, expressing confidence despite his absence.

The Mets’ offense struggled mightily against Philadelphia’s pitching on Friday, mustering just four hits after scoring twice in the first inning. New York’s starter, David Peterson, was pulled after a season-low 3 2/3 innings, halting the Mets’ offensive momentum that had carried them through the week.

Key Pitching Matchup: Suarez vs. Manaea

Saturday’s game features a pivotal pitching matchup, as the Phillies send Ranger Suarez (12-7, 3.13 ERA) to the mound against the Mets’ Sean Manaea (11-5, 3.26 ERA). Both left-handers have had strong seasons, but Suarez holds a clear edge against New York this year. In two starts against the Mets, Suarez is 2-0 with an impressive 1.69 ERA.

Suarez will look to bounce back from a loss earlier this week, where he allowed three runs over five innings in a 6-2 defeat to the Milwaukee Brewers. The 28-year-old Venezuelan has been a steady force in the Phillies’ rotation and will be counted on to help Philadelphia clinch the division.

Manaea, on the other hand, comes off a solid outing in which he allowed just one run over seven innings in the Mets’ 2-1 extra-innings victory over the Washington Nationals on Monday. However, the lefty has struggled against Philadelphia this season, going 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA in two starts. Manaea will need to overcome those struggles if the Mets hope to delay the Phillies’ NL East celebration.

Phillies Eyeing a Bigger Prize: The World Series

While the immediate goal is clinching the NL East, the Phillies have their sights set much higher: a World Series championship. After reaching the postseason in back-to-back years, Philadelphia is determined to make a deeper run this year. Manager Rob Thomson made it clear that the Phillies won’t be satisfied with just a division title.

Philadelphia’s depth and experience in the postseason have made them one of the most formidable teams in the National League. Their lineup, led by stars like Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and the surging Bohm, has proven to be a consistent offensive force, while their pitching staff, anchored by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, is built for October success.

“We’ve overcome a lot of obstacles to get here,” Thomson said. “Now, it’s about finishing the job.”

Mets’ Resilience Amidst Challenges

The Mets, though facing a difficult road, have shown resilience throughout the season. Overcoming a slow start, New York has relied on key contributions from Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and a pitching staff that has improved significantly in the second half of the season. Recent standout performances by Tylor Megill, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino helped New York surge back into playoff contention.

However, the team has been hit with injuries at a critical juncture. Besides Lindor’s absence, the Mets have also had to manage around various pitching injuries throughout the season. David Peterson’s rough outing on Friday highlighted the team’s need for more consistent performances from their starters as they push for a wild-card spot.

Saturday’s Game Could Decide NL East

Saturday’s contest could be the defining moment for both teams. A Phillies win would secure their first NL East title since 2011, while a victory for the Mets would keep their division rivals from celebrating — at least for one more night. For the Mets, delaying Philadelphia’s celebration would be a small victory as they continue their fight for a postseason berth.

The Phillies, though, are focused on wrapping up the division as quickly as possible. With their eyes on bigger prizes, Philadelphia knows that clinching the NL East is just the beginning of what they hope will be a deep playoff run. “It’s all about finishing strong and getting ready for October,” Thomson said.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment in the NL East Race

As the Phillies look to clinch the NL East title, the Mets face a crucial challenge in trying to delay their rivals’ celebration. Saturday’s matchup, with Suarez and Manaea on the mound, could determine the immediate future for both teams. For Philadelphia, it’s about securing the division and building momentum for the postseason, while New York fights to stay alive in the race for a wild-card spot.

Regardless of the outcome, the stakes have never been higher for these division rivals.