Ny Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions October 8th 2024

First pitch for Tuesday’s Phillies vs. Mets matchup is set for 5:08 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The Phillies are 95-67 this season and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Mets are 89-73 and are 2nd in the division.

FS1 will be televising this game, and the money line odds have the Phillies at -112 compared to the Mets at -106. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies, while the Mets are going with Sean Manaea.

Philadelphia vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Phillies at Mets
• Where: Citi Field New York
• Date: Tuesday, October 8th
• Betting Odds PHI -112 | NYM -106 O/U 7

The Phillies Can Win If…

With their NL Divisional Round series against the Mets tied at 1-1, the Phillies head into game three on the road. Philadelphia went 41-40 on the road during the regular season, compared to a 54-27 mark at home. As favorites, they posted an 83-50 record, while going 13-18 as underdogs.

Philadelphia’s run line record stands at 78-86, with a +0.3 average run margin on the road and +1.0 at home. Their run line record on the road is 41-40. The Phillies’ over/under record is 80-75, and 92% of their games have had higher totals than today’s 7-run line. The over has hit in seven straight games for Philadelphia.

Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Mets on the road. This year, he has made 33 starts and has a record of 14-8 with an ERA of 3.57. Nola’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his 33 appearances, he has turned in 20 quality starts and is averaging 8.89 strikeouts per nine innings. Nola’s most recent outing came on September 29th, where he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the top offensive teams in the league, as they are 5th in runs per game (4.8) and are batting a collective .257, which is the 4th best in the MLB. The Phillies have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per game, and have the league’s 7th best home run total this season.

Over his last eight games, Kyle Schwarber has three home runs but is hitting just .212 during that stretch. However, he is still the Phillies’ top power threat, as his 38 homers this season are the best on the team and 6th best in the league. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, going 12/25 in his last eight games. Bryce Harper is also swinging a hot bat, as he is on a three-game hitting streak and has gone deep 30 times this season.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 8-1-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 3-7
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Mets Can Win If…

As the Mets prepare for game three of their series against the Phillies, they’ll look to take a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five matchup. New York finished the regular season with an 89-73 record, going 46-35 at home and 43-38 on the road. As favorites, they were 59-39, while they went 33-36 as underdogs.

New York posted an 86-81 run line record this season, with a +0.6 average run margin at home and +0.3 on the road. They’ve covered the run line in their last two home games. The Mets’ over/under record is 85-77, and today’s line of seven runs is well below their season average of 8. The over has hit in their last two games.

Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Phillies at home. He has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 3.47. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.08. In his 32 starts, he has turned in 15 quality starts and is averaging 9.12 strikeouts per nine innings. Manaea most recently faced the Brewers, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 34 homers is good for 10th in the league and Lindor is right behind him with 33. Lindor has also been the team’s top run producer, with 91 RBIs. Lindor comes into the game hitting .273, and Alonso is batting .240 for the season. However, Alonso has struggled of late, going just 5/28 in his last eight games.

Brandon Nimmo is currently on an eight-game hitting streak for the Mets and has gone 10/34 in his last eight games. Overall, he is hitting .294 for the season. Over his last seven games, Lindor has gone 8/26, with two homers.

• The Mets are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mets are 5-5
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

A Rollercoaster Road for the Mets

After spending two weeks on the road, New York Mets outfielder Harrison Bader aptly described the team’s journey as a “traveling circus.” The team has faced extreme weather conditions, tight travel schedules, and intense pressure. Despite these challenges, the Mets have managed to extend their season, showcasing the grit that has defined their 2024 campaign.

As the Mets prepare to host the Phillies at Citi Field for Game 3 on Tuesday, there’s a sense of anticipation surrounding what’s already been a dramatic series. With both teams locked at 1-1, every pitch, swing, and defensive play could turn the tide.

Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea vs. Aaron Nola

The starting pitchers for Game 3 bring intriguing matchups to the forefront. Left-hander Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, while Aaron Nola (14-8, 3.57 ERA) will lead the Phillies’ charge.

While Manaea has been solid throughout the regular season, his playoff history tells a different story, with an 0-3 record and a 10.66 ERA over four career postseason appearances. Nola, with a stronger playoff resume, has a 5-3 record and a 3.70 ERA in nine postseason starts. The battle between these pitchers could set the tone for the rest of the series.

Game 2 Recap: Phillies Even the Series

The Phillies tied the series at 1-1 on Sunday with a dramatic walk-off victory, courtesy of Nick Castellanos’ RBI single in the ninth inning. That thrilling finish was a culmination of the wild swings seen throughout the game, which was a back-and-forth affair between two determined teams. Castellanos’ heroics capped off a furious rally after the Mets opened the game with a 3-0 lead, eventually tying it again in the ninth inning on Mark Vientos’ second two-run homer.

It was a display of both teams’ never-give-up mentality, with the Mets battling through adversity and the Phillies proving that they, too, have no shortage of fight, especially in October.

Mets’ Resilience: A Season of Highs and Lows

The Mets’ journey to the NLDS has been anything but ordinary. They clinched a wild-card berth with one of the most thrilling games of the season—a 9th-inning home run by Francisco Lindor against the Atlanta Braves that propelled them to an 8-7 win. But before that, the Mets faced weather delays caused by Hurricane Helene and had to navigate a packed schedule of doubleheaders.

The team’s playoff journey truly began when Pete Alonso hit a three-run homer in the ninth inning against the Brewers, sparking a stunning 4-2 comeback win to advance out of the wild-card round. These moments have solidified the Mets’ identity as a team that thrives under pressure.

Phillies’ Playoff Grit: A Familiar Path

The Philadelphia Phillies are no strangers to high-stakes October baseball. Just last season, they made a surprise run to the World Series as the NL’s sixth seed, and although they fell short, their 2023 campaign further cemented their reputation as a team capable of defying the odds.

Game 2 was a reminder of their resilience, as they mounted a comeback from a 2-0 series deficit against the Diamondbacks in last year’s National League Championship Series (NLCS). This year, they seem poised to take on a similar role as the gritty underdogs.

With veterans like Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos leading the way, the Phillies’ lineup has consistently found ways to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their Game 2 victory on Sunday was a prime example, as Harper and Castellanos delivered clutch home runs to keep their team in the series.

Key Players to Watch in Game 3

Mets:

• Francisco Lindor: The star shortstop continues to be the spark plug for the Mets’ offense, delivering in clutch moments.
• Pete Alonso: Alonso has been a consistent power threat, and his postseason home runs have been game-changers.
• Mark Vientos: With two home runs in Game 2, Vientos showed he can rise to the occasion when the Mets need it most.

Phillies:

• Bryce Harper: Harper has a flair for the dramatic, and his timely hitting has been a key factor for the Phillies in both regular and postseason play.
• Nick Castellanos: Castellanos’ walk-off heroics in Game 2 are just one of many reasons why he’s an essential part of the Phillies’ lineup.
• Trea Turner: Turner’s ability to ignite rallies with his speed and power makes him a pivotal player in this series.

Series Outlook: What to Expect in New York

As the series shifts to New York, both teams will look to seize momentum. The Mets, bolstered by their home crowd, are eager to bounce back after the heartbreak of Game 2. Meanwhile, the Phillies are riding high on their comeback win and will aim to keep their bats hot.

Each game in this NLDS has brought a new chapter of drama, and Game 3 promises to be no different. With seasoned veterans on both sides and pitching matchups that could go either way, expect the intensity to only increase as the stakes rise.

The Lean

For a money-line pick in this Phillies vs. Mets matchup, we are leaning towards the Mets to come out on top at home. We are also leaning towards the under, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. The Mets are projected to finish with more home runs than the Phillies, and Sean Manaea is our projected strikeout leader in this game.