Ny Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions October 9th 2024

After another ‘OMG’ moment, Mets look to KO Phils in Game 4

At 5:08 PM ET, the Phillies and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citi Field in New York, and the Phillies are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -111 compared to the Mets at -106. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

Jose Quintana will be on the mound for the Mets, while the Phillies are starting Ranger Suarez. Philadelphia is currently 1st in the NL East with a record of 95-67, while the Mets are 2nd at 89-73. FS1 will be televising this game.

Philadelphia vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Phillies at Mets
• Where: Citi Field New York
• Date: Wednesday, October 9th
• Betting Odds PHI -111 | NYM -106 O/U 7.5

The Phillies Can Win If…

Facing a must-win situation, the Phillies head into game four against the Mets, trailing 2-1 in their best-of-five series. Philadelphia is on the road, where they posted a 41-40 record during the regular season, compared to their 54-27 mark at home. As favorites, the Phillies went 83-51 this year, while they were 13-18 as underdogs.

Philadelphia finished the regular season with a 78-87 run line record, including 41-41 on the road. When favored, they went 62-72 against the run line. Their games averaged a +0.6 run margin this season. The Phillies’ over/under record is 81-75, and 72.2% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line. The over has hit in eight straight games for Philadelphia.

Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Mets on the road. So far this season, he has made 27 starts and has a record of 12-8 with an ERA of 3.46. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up six earned runs in just two innings of work. Before that, he had pitched well, giving up two earned runs in each of his previous two outings. Suárez has one complete game shutout this season and 11 quality starts.

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top offensive teams, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .257, which is the 4th best mark in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. The Phillies have also been a patient team at the plate, as they are 7th in the league in walks and have the 5th best on-base percentage in the league.

Over his last seven games, Nick Castellanos has gone 10/23 with two homers and four RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .285. Bryce Harper is also swinging a hot bat right now, as he is on a four-game hitting streak and is batting .285 for the season. Harper’s 30 homers is the 2nd best mark on the team, and he has driven in 87 runs so far this season.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 8-1-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 3-7
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Mets Can Win If…

As the Mets head into game four of their series against the Phillies, they hold a 2-1 lead and look to close things out at home. New York posted a 46-35 record at home this season, compared to 43-38 on the road. As favorites, they went 59-39, while their record as underdogs was 34-36.

New York’s run line record for the season is 87-81, and they’ve covered the run line in their last three home games. As underdogs, their run line record is 42-28. The Mets’ over/under record is 86-77, and the over has hit in their last three games. Today’s line of 7.5 runs is below their season average of 8 runs.

Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. Against the Brewers on October 3rd, he went six innings, giving up just one earned run. In that outing, he finished with a no-decision. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. Quintana’s record for the season is 10-10, and he has an ERA of 3.75. Opponents are batting .233 off Quintana this year. For the season, he has made 31 starts, 12 of which were quality starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 7th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 6th best home run hitting team and have the 8th best team batting average at .246. New York’s offense is also near the top of the league in walks and isolated power.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Lindor hitting 33 home runs and Alonso at 34. Lindor is batting .273 for the season and Alonso is at .240. However, Alonso has gone just 4/19 in his last six games, while Mark Vientos has gone 10/24 with two homers over that same stretch.

• The Mets are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mets are 5-5
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the under, as this is projected to be the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day. We are also leaning towards the Phillies to pick up the win, and they come into this one with the 3rd highest home run projection. Looking at today’s starters, Ranger Suárez has the highest innings pitched projection in the league, and Jose Quintana has the 2nd worst strikeout projection among today’s starters.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

The New York Mets are on the verge of delivering yet another unforgettable moment as they prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the National League Division Series (NLDS). With a 2-1 series lead, the Mets are one win away from advancing to the NL Championship Series for the first time since 2015. Meanwhile, the Phillies are desperately fighting to stave off elimination and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Mets’ Momentum and “OMG” Moments

The Mets have embraced the spotlight this postseason, driven by clutch performances and what outfielder Jesse Winker calls “OMG” moments. Their remarkable playoff run has been fueled by dramatic comebacks and timely heroics, most recently in their 7-2 Game 3 victory, where Pete Alonso and Winker each homered. Sean Manaea’s seven-plus innings of dominant pitching further cemented the Mets’ lead in the series.

This momentum is reflective of the Mets’ resilience throughout the season. Once 11 games under .500 in early June, the team clawed its way into the playoffs with a late surge. Their dramatic regular-season finale, which saw them clinch a playoff berth with a comeback win over the Atlanta Braves, foreshadowed the high-stakes drama of the postseason. Pete Alonso’s go-ahead three-run homer in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers saved their season, setting the tone for their NLDS campaign.

As outfielder Brandon Nimmo stated: “We’re looking to finish this and be done, they’re looking to try and extend the series and get back to Philadelphia.” It’s clear the Mets are determined to close out the series and continue their magical run.

Phillies Face a Must-Win Situation

For the Philadelphia Phillies, the situation is dire. Facing elimination for the second straight season by a lower-seeded team, the Phillies are hoping to rekindle the magic that took them to the World Series last year. Outfielder Nick Castellanos framed the urgency of the moment starkly: “As a group, this is the closest to death as we’re ever going to get…we should feel the most alive.” The Phillies know this game could be their last and are eager to fight for survival.

Offensive struggles have plagued the Phillies in this series. Philadelphia has hit just .204 and struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities, going 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position in Game 3. Despite some offensive flashes, like their comeback win in Game 2, consistency at the plate has been elusive. Bryce Harper and Castellanos delivered back-to-back RBI singles in the eighth inning of Game 3, but the Phillies’ late rally fell short.

Manager Rob Thomson emphasized the need for his team to “stay with our approach and pass the baton,” acknowledging that some players may be pressing too hard under the weight of elimination. To extend their season, the Phillies will need to rediscover their rhythm at the plate and execute under pressure.

Pitching Matchup: Quintana vs. Suárez

Wednesday’s game will see two seasoned left-handers take the mound. The Mets will send José Quintana, who has been a steady presence in their rotation. Quintana, who went 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA during the regular season, is coming off a stellar performance in the Wild Card Series, where he tossed six scoreless innings. Quintana’s playoff experience—he owns a 2.92 ERA in six postseason games—will be crucial in this high-stakes game. Against the Phillies in his career, Quintana is 1-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 12 regular-season starts. This season, however, he has found success against Philadelphia, posting a 2.81 ERA in three starts.

On the other side, the Phillies will turn to Ranger Suárez, who has also proven himself in the postseason. Suárez went 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA in the regular season, but his postseason numbers stand out: a 1.62 ERA and one save across nine games. In his career against the Mets, Suárez has a 4-3 record with a 3.52 ERA, including a 2-0 mark and 2.30 ERA in three starts this season. However, his most recent outing wasn’t promising, as he gave up six runs in two innings against the Washington Nationals in late September. The Phillies will be counting on Suárez to bounce back and deliver a shutdown performance to keep their season alive.

Keys to the Game

1. Mets’ Finishing Touch: The Mets need to keep riding the wave of their postseason momentum. If their offense, led by Alonso and Winker, continues to produce, and Quintana delivers another strong outing, the Mets are well-positioned to clinch the series.
2. Phillies’ Offensive Revival: The Phillies must break out of their offensive slump. Players like Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos have shown they can deliver in clutch moments, but consistency is key. Philadelphia needs to string together quality at-bats and convert with runners in scoring position if they hope to force a Game 5.
3. Pitching Duel: With both teams starting reliable left-handers, the outcome could hinge on who handles the pressure better. Quintana has been in strong form, but Suárez’s postseason pedigree gives the Phillies hope that they can neutralize the Mets’ offense.
4. Defense and Intangibles: Defensive plays, like Tyrone Taylor’s throw that caught Alec Bohm trying to stretch a single into a double in Game 3, can shift momentum in tight playoff games. Expect these small but pivotal moments to play a role in Game 4.

Conclusion

As Game 4 approaches, the Mets are poised to capitalize on their season’s most dramatic run yet, while the Phillies find themselves fighting for survival. For the Mets, it’s about closing out the series and continuing their postseason journey. For the Phillies, it’s about finding the fight to force a Game 5 and return to Philadelphia.

No matter the outcome, this game promises to be an emotional and intense battle, as both teams push their limits to stay alive in the postseason.