Ny Mets vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Francisco Lindor, Mets pursue sweep of Red Sox

The forecast looks good for Wednesday’s Red Sox vs. Mets interleague matchup, as the temperature will be in the upper 70s with clear skies in New York. The game is being played at 7:10 PM ET from Citi Field, and SNY is carrying it on TV.

The Mets are favored at -108 on the money line, while the Red Sox are at -110. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and Boston will be looking to end a four-game losing streak, as they are 3rd in the AL East. The Mets are 75-64 overall and have won six straight, putting them 3rd in the NL East.

Boston vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Mets
• Where: Citi Field New York
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds BOS -110 | NYM -108 O/U 8

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Tanner Houck gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Mets on the road. So far this season, he has made 27 starts and has a record of 8-9 with an ERA of 3.12. Houck’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.17. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and not giving up a run to the Tigers. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Houck has one complete game shutout this year and 19 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.82 strikeouts and 2.51 walks.

The Red Sox come into today’s game as one of the league’s best offensive teams, as they are 8th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th). They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Boston’s team batting average of .256 is 5th in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.

Jarren Duran has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/24 in his last six games with a home run. Duran is batting .294 for the season and is 3rd on the team with 21 homers. Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat, with 28 homers and 80 RBIs, while batting .279.

• The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 2.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 4-6
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

The Mets Can Win If…

New York is sending Tylor Megill to the mound today vs. the Red Sox, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing vs. the White Sox, he allowed just five hits and issued one walk. Megill’s record for the season is 3-5, and his ERA is 4.82. Looking back at his last 10 starts, Megill has only turned in one quality start. His ERA at home is 4.13, compared to 7.62 on the road.

Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/19 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .273 with a team-high 84 RBIs. Pete Alonso is also near the top of the league in homers, as he has 31 long balls this season, which is 7th in the MLB. However, Alonso is batting just .242 for the season and has gone 4/20 in his last five games.

As a team, the Mets are 6th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been slightly better on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, their team batting average is .249, and they are 8th in team OPS and OBP.

• The Mets are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 5-0 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mets are 7-3
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s game between the Red Sox and Mets has the 5th highest combined runs projection and 5th highest total hits projection. Our lean would be towards taking the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Red Sox to pick up the win. Boston starter Tanner Houck has the 7th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

Francisco Lindor may not eclipse Shohei Ohtani in the National League Most Valuable Player race, but he is playing a vital role in the New York Mets’ push for a postseason spot. The Mets look to maintain their momentum and secure a three-game sweep against the visiting Boston Red Sox on Wednesday night.

Mets Riding Lindor’s Hot Streak

Lindor has been on fire at the plate and in the field, helping the Mets power through a six-game winning streak. In Tuesday’s game, Lindor smashed a two-run home run in the third inning, extending his hitting streak to 14 games and his on-base streak to an impressive 32 consecutive games. Since moving to the Mets’ leadoff spot on May 18, Lindor has hit .307 with 23 homers in 95 games. His stellar offensive production, combined with Gold Glove-caliber defense, has been instrumental in New York’s rise through the standings.

Despite Lindor’s MVP-like performance, his chances of surpassing Ohtani, who is on pace to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ designated hitter, remain slim. However, for Lindor, the focus is less on individual awards and more on team success.

“If it happens, it would be a dream,” Lindor said of the MVP race. “Right now I’m just trying to play winning baseball, and we’ll see where we’re at at the end of the year. Hopefully, we’re in the postseason.”

Mets Closing in on the Playoffs

With Lindor leading the charge, the Mets (75-64) have surged to a 55-40 record since he began batting leadoff. They are now just a half-game behind the Atlanta Braves for the final NL wild-card spot. Every game counts as the Mets battle for a chance to return to the playoffs, making this series against the Red Sox crucial.

Red Sox Struggling at the Wrong Time

On the other side, the Red Sox (70-69) are in the midst of a four-game losing streak that has severely dented their postseason hopes. They now sit 4 ½ games behind the Kansas City Royals for the third AL wild-card spot. Boston’s offense has been struggling, with just five runs scored over their current losing streak.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora remains optimistic but acknowledged the slump. “Although we put pressure on them tonight, we’re much better than this,” Cora said following Tuesday’s 3-2 loss. “This is a good offensive club that is going through a bad stretch right now.”

Boston’s offense showed signs of life on Tuesday, loading the bases with no outs in the eighth inning. However, they could only push one run across on a sacrifice fly before grounding into an inning-ending double play, highlighting their recent inability to capitalize on opportunities.

Pitching Matchup: Megill vs. Houck

Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.82 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets on Wednesday, fresh off a strong performance in his return to the majors last Friday. He gave up just one run over 5 1/3 innings to help the Mets beat the Chicago White Sox 5-1. Megill has never faced the Red Sox, but he will look to continue his form as the Mets aim for the sweep.

The Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck (8-9, 3.12 ERA), who threw six scoreless innings in his last start against the Detroit Tigers. Despite a strong outing, Houck didn’t factor into the decision as the Red Sox eventually won 7-5 in 10 innings. Like Megill, Houck will face the Mets for the first time.

Mets Eyeing Momentum as Season Nears End

As the regular season winds down, every game is critical for both teams. The Mets, led by a surging Lindor, are focused on securing a playoff spot, while the Red Sox are trying to stop their skid and reignite their postseason hopes. With pitching duels set and a red-hot Lindor continuing to lead the way, Wednesday’s game could be pivotal for both teams’ aspirations.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Showdown

The New York Mets are surging at the right time, driven by Francisco Lindor’s MVP-level play and a team-wide commitment to “winning baseball.” While the Red Sox are struggling to regain their offensive rhythm, they remain a dangerous team capable of turning their season around. Both teams are in must-win mode as they fight for postseason berths, making the series finale a crucial test for their respective playoff dreams.

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