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At 3:05 PM ET, the Phillies and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -179 compared to the Nationals at +150. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Philadelphia will be looking to end a two-game losing streak, as they are 94-67 this season, while the Nationals have won two straight and are 71-90 overall. Jake Irvin will start for the Nationals, while the Phillies are going with Aaron Nola. MASN is carrying this one on TV.
Philadelphia vs. Washington Key Information
- Teams: Phillies at Nationals
- Where: Nationals Park Washington
- Date: Sunday, September 29th
- Betting Odds PHI -179 | WSH +150 O/U 7.5
The Phillies Can Win If…
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Nationals on the road. Nola has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 13-8. His ERA is 3.52, along with a WHIP of 1.18. Nola’s last outing came on September 23rd, where he picked up the win vs. the Cubs. In that outing, he went six innings and gave up two earned runs, seven hits, and two homers. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Nola has one complete game shutout this season and 20 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.8 strikeouts and just 2.32 walks.
Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Overall, they are 7th in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the league.
Over his last six games, Kyle Schwarber has gone just 4/23 (.174) but does have two homers in that stretch. For the season, he is batting .248 with 38 home runs, which is 6th in the league. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, going 10/20 in his last six games and is currently on a nine-game hitting streak.
- The Phillies are 3-7 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- Philadelphia has an over/under record of 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
- The Phillies have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 2-8
- Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
- Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 3.5 runs per game on offense
The Nationals Can Win If…
Jake Irvin will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cubs, as he gets the start for the Nationals today. In that September 22nd start, he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in four innings of work. Looking back further, he has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 10-13. Irvin’s ERA is 4.22, along with a WHIP of 1.18. For the year, he has allowed 29 home runs, and his ERA at home is 5.04 compared to 4.43 on the road. So far, he has turned in 16 quality starts and is averaging 7.51 strikeouts per nine innings.
Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 25th in the MLB. They have also struggled in the power department, as their 134 home runs are 26th in the league. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 12th in the league. The Nationals have been good at putting the ball in play, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams have been the Nationals’ top power threats this season, with Garcia Jr. leading the team with 68 RBIs and Abrams having gone deep 20 times. Garcia Jr. is also batting .281 and is on a three-game hitting streak. James Wood has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/33 with two homers in his last nine games.
- The Nationals are 3-7 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Nationals are 3-2 vs. the run line.
- Washington has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
- The Nationals have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Nationals are 3-7
- Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- Washington has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense
Phillies Look to End Season on a High Note Against Nationals
The Philadelphia Phillies (94-67) will look to wrap up the regular season with a win against the Washington Nationals (71-90) in their series finale on Sunday afternoon. With the National League Division Series (NLDS) just around the corner, the Phillies aim to sharpen their game, while the Nationals hope to complete a surprising sweep against the division champions at home.
Nationals Seek Series Sweep
The Nationals guaranteed themselves a series win on Saturday with a 6-3 victory, matching their 2023 win total. Rookie James Wood was a standout, smashing a two-run homer and tripling, while Joey Gallo added a three-run shot in the eighth inning to seal the game. This back-to-back success against the Phillies shows the resilience of the Nationals.
“I love the energy. I love the excitement. I love the boys playing hard and not backing down. I’ve never seen them give up once, and today was a testament to that,” said Nationals manager Dave Martinez, praising his team’s efforts.
MacKenzie Gore Shines Against Phillies
A huge factor in Saturday’s win was the stellar performance by 24-year-old lefty MacKenzie Gore. Gore (10-12) dominated, allowing just three singles over six shutout innings and striking out nine batters, including the power trio of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper in his final frame.
Gore has been electric lately, posting an outstanding 0.47 ERA over his last three starts, allowing just one earned run in 19 innings while racking up 23 strikeouts.
“I’m really proud of the way he finished up,” said Martinez. “That’s a great building block for next year. He’s a guy who can win 18, 20 games for us. When he’s in the strike zone, he’s really good. Today he proved that.”
Zack Wheeler Makes History Despite Loss
On the Phillies’ side, Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57 ERA, 225 strikeouts) delivered yet another strong outing. He pitched 6 1/3 innings, allowing only three hits and striking out 11. Notably, Wheeler achieved a remarkable milestone: 11 consecutive starts of at least six innings with two or fewer runs allowed—a first for a Phillies pitcher since 1893, the year the pitcher’s mound was set to its current distance.
“It was a hell of a year,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said of Wheeler’s performance. “That’s Cy Young-worthy to me.”
Aaron Nola Ready to Start Series Finale
The Phillies will turn to Aaron Nola (13-8, 3.52 ERA) for Sunday’s finale. Nola has been superb against Washington this season, boasting a 0.93 ERA across three starts, allowing only two earned runs over 19 1/3 innings. This game will be a key tune-up for Nola before he takes on a crucial role in the NLDS.
The Nationals will counter with fellow right-hander Jake Irvin (10-13, 4.22 ERA). Irvin has struggled against Philadelphia in the past, carrying an 0-2 record with a 4.70 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies.
Phillies’ Playoff Picture
Saturday’s loss to the Nationals dashed the Phillies’ hopes of overtaking the Los Angeles Dodgers (97-64) for the top seed in the National League playoffs, but Philadelphia remains in contention for home-field advantage in a potential World Series matchup with the New York Yankees (93-68). The Phillies have been dominant at home, with a 54-27 record—the best in the majors this season.
“It would have been nice to have home-field advantage throughout, but we’ve won on the road too,” Thomson said. “We’ve just got to go out and play.”
Nationals Eye a Positive Finish
For the Nationals, a win on Sunday would mean ending the season on a high by sweeping the division champs—a meaningful way to cap off a year filled with ups and downs. The emergence of young talent like James Wood and MacKenzie Gore has given Washington a reason to look forward with optimism.
Game Outlook
With Aaron Nola and Jake Irvin set to start, both teams have something to prove in their final regular season game. For the Phillies, it’s about staying sharp and focused ahead of the postseason, while for the Nationals, it’s about closing out the year with momentum and pride.
For Philadelphia, a win would be a positive ending before diving into playoff action, and for Washington, sweeping the series against the division winners would be a fitting way to conclude their season of rebuilding. As the two teams face off one last time, fans can expect a battle of determination—each team playing for their own version of victory.
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The Lean
Our lean for a money-line pick in this Phillies vs. Nationals matchup is to take the Nationals to come out on top. And despite our projections pointing to this being the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day, we are leaning towards taking the over. The Nationals offense has the worst home run projection in the league today, but we like Jake Irvin’s innings pitched potential. He has the 5th best odds to pick up a win among today’s starters.
