Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions September 25th 2024

Royals, amid wild-card race, search for offense vs. Nats

The forecast doesn’t look great in Washington, as there figures to be moderate rain and 70-degree temperatures for Wednesday’s Royals–Nationals interleague matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 6:45 PM ET from Nationals Park in Washington, DC. MASN will be televising this game, and the money line odds have the Royals at -121 compared to the Nationals at +102. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Both teams have released their starting pitching plans, with Michael Lorenzen going for the Royals and DJ Herz for the Nationals. Herz and the Nationals are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, but they are the underdog on the money line today. The Royals are 83-74 overall, and they are in 2nd place in the AL Central.

Kansas City vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Royals at Nationals
• Where: Nationals Park Washington
• Date: Wednesday, September 25th
• Betting Odds KC -121 | WSH +102 O/U 8

The Royals Can Win If…

Kansas City is sending Michael Lorenzen to the mound today, and he has made 23 starts this year. Lorenzen’s ERA is 3.43, and he has a record of 7-6. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 6.57 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Lorenzen went just 1 2/3 innings, giving up one walk and one hit. He didn’t allow a run in that appearance. Before that, he had won two straight starts. The right-hander has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 5-4 and an ERA of 6.59.

As a team, the Royals are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been especially good at home, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in batting average and have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league. Kansas City has been good at avoiding strikeouts but are just 25th in walks.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire of late, going 13/35 in his last 10 games with two homers and nine RBIs. For the season, he is batting .335 with 32 homers and 108 RBIs. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season, with 27 homers and 103 RBIs while batting .271.

• The Royals are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 0-5 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 0.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Royals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Kansas City has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 3.5 runs per game on offense

The Nationals Can Win If…

DJ Herz gets the start for the Nationals today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets. In that start, he took the loss, going just 3 1/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs. Looking back further, Herz had picked up the win in two straight outings before that rough start. For the season, he has made 18 starts, and his record is 4-8 with a 4.30 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .221 off Herz this season, and his WHIP is 1.27. Herz has only made two quality starts this year.

So far this season, the Nationals offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is only 25th in the league. They have also been one of the worst home run hitting teams in the league, coming in at 23rd in the league. As a team, the Nationals are batting .242, which is 13th in the league.

CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. are tied for the team lead in RBIs, and Abrams is also the team’s top home run hitter, with 20 homers. Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a batting average of .280. Over his last five games, Joey Gallo is 4/12 with two homers and six RBIs. Jose Tena has also been swinging a hot bat, going 7/20 in his last five games.

• The Nationals are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Nationals are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Washington has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Nationals have an average of 2.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Nationals are 3-7
• Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Washington has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Royals vs. Nationals matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 2nd highest-scoring game of the day. For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning towards the Royals to come out on top. Kansas City starter Michael Lorenzen has the highest innings pitched projection and is 2nd in chances to pick up a win. On the other side, DJ Herz has the 2nd worst innings pitched projection among today’s starters.

As the Kansas City Royals battle for an American League wild-card spot, they face the struggling Washington Nationals on Wednesday night, hoping to ignite an offense that has recently gone cold. Both teams are looking to improve their run production, with the Royals fighting for their postseason lives and the Nationals playing for development and future potential.

Royals’ Offensive Woes Persist Despite Narrow Win

The Royals (83-74) snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 1-0 extra-inning victory over the Nationals (69-88) on Tuesday, thanks to an unearned run in the 10th inning. However, their offensive struggles continue to cast a shadow over their playoff hopes. Kansas City managed eight hits but failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities, going just 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position. Over their last six games, the Royals have scored a mere five runs, underscoring the pressing need for a more consistent offensive output.

The Royals’ inability to string together timely hits has made each game critical as they remain tied with the Detroit Tigers (83-74) for the final two AL wild-card spots, sitting two games ahead of the Minnesota Twins (81-76). With only a handful of games left, Kansas City must reverse its fortunes at the plate if they hope to maintain their playoff positioning and chase down the Baltimore Orioles (87-70) for the top wild-card berth.

Nationals’ Offensive Struggles Match Royals’ Troubles

The Nationals’ offensive issues mirror those of Kansas City. Washington has been shut out in two consecutive games and has scored just 14 runs across their last eight contests. In Tuesday’s series opener, they were held to five hits and failed to push a run across the plate, marking the 17th time this season they’ve been blanked.

Manager Dave Martinez’s club is clearly in rebuilding mode, but the Nationals’ offense has struggled to gain traction as the season winds down. Although the team is out of playoff contention, players like rookie DJ Herz and young talents are using these final games as opportunities for development and growth.

Pitching Matchup: Lorenzen Returns, Herz Seeks Redemption

Kansas City Royals: The Royals will send right-hander Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.43 ERA) to the mound for his first start since August 27 after recovering from a hamstring strain. Lorenzen has been solid since being acquired from the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.85 ERA in five starts for Kansas City. However, his longest rehab appearance was just 3 1/3 innings, so manager Matt Quatraro may limit his pitch count. Lorenzen’s career numbers against Washington (1-2, 5.35 ERA in 15 appearances) suggest a mixed history, but his recent form makes him a key player as the Royals aim to bolster their wild-card push.

Despite his potential pitch limitations, Lorenzen is committed to giving everything he has in what is a crucial game for the Royals. “No excuses, just give everything you can,” Lorenzen said ahead of the start. “I’ll let [Quatraro] decide how long I stay out there, but I want to give as many innings as I can.”

Washington Nationals: Opposing Lorenzen will be rookie left-hander DJ Herz (4-8, 4.30 ERA), who has endured a rollercoaster season. After stringing together back-to-back wins, Herz was rocked by the New York Mets in his most recent outing, allowing seven runs on six hits in just 3 1/3 innings. Herz had retired nine of the first 11 batters he faced but struggled mightily in the fourth inning, leading to the worst performance of his young career.

Martinez noted that Herz’s struggles stemmed from control issues and frustration, particularly when trying to close out batters after getting ahead in the count. “When he fell behind, he would walk guys. When he got ahead, he couldn’t put guys away,” Martinez explained. “It felt like everything was speeding up on him.”

Wednesday’s game offers Herz a chance to rebound, but his inexperience and recent performance raise questions about his ability to handle the Royals’ lineup, even with their recent offensive struggles.

Game-Changing Defense

The Royals won Tuesday’s game in part due to defensive miscues by Washington. In the 10th inning, Royals outfielder Kyle Isbel scored the game’s only run on a throwing error by Nationals shortstop Nasim Nunez. The Nationals’ 17th shutout loss of the season once again highlighted their difficulties in executing in critical moments. For Kansas City, this defensive gift was a much-needed break as they try to regain their momentum.

Cole Ragans, the Royals’ starting pitcher on Tuesday, delivered a standout performance with six scoreless innings, helping set the tone for a much-needed victory. Kansas City’s bullpen also shined, combining to hold the Nationals to just five hits. Quatraro acknowledged that the team may need more games like this—a grind-it-out approach that emphasizes strong pitching and defense—if they are to remain competitive in the playoff hunt.

Roster Changes and Injuries

As the season nears its conclusion, both teams are making adjustments. Washington recalled outfielder Stone Garrett from Triple-A Rochester and placed infielder Andres Chaparro on the paternity list. The Royals, on the other hand, suffered a blow with the news that reliever Hunter Harvey, who was acquired from the Nationals in July, will miss the remainder of the season with a back injury. This loss puts added pressure on Kansas City’s bullpen, which has been a bright spot amid their offensive struggles.

Keys to the Game

1. Royals’ Offensive Urgency: With the wild-card race tightening, Kansas City must break out of its scoring slump. Timely hitting, especially with runners in scoring position, will be crucial. If their bats remain cold, they risk falling behind in the playoff chase.
2. Lorenzen’s Impact: How long Lorenzen can pitch effectively after his return from injury will be a major factor. If he can give the Royals five or more solid innings, it will take pressure off the bullpen and increase Kansas City’s chances.
3. Herz’s Bounce-Back Performance: Herz’s ability to control his emotions and limit free passes will be vital for Washington. If he can command his pitches and avoid big innings, the Nationals might keep it close against Kansas City’s struggling offense.
4. Defensive Execution: Both teams have made defensive mistakes in recent games that have proven costly. Solid defense, particularly in late innings, could tip the scales in a low-scoring affair.

Conclusion: A Must-Win for Kansas City

Wednesday’s game is a must-win for the Royals, who cannot afford to drop games against a Nationals team far removed from postseason contention. While both offenses have been underwhelming, Kansas City’s need to secure runs is paramount if they are to remain in the playoff race. The performance of Michael Lorenzen in his return from injury and whether DJ Herz can bounce back from his poor outing will likely determine the outcome of this pivotal game.

With the wild-card race in full swing, Kansas City knows that each game is critical, and failing to capitalize on matchups like this could spell the end of their postseason hopes.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS