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From Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, we have the Rays and Orioles facing off in an AL East matchup. The Orioles are 82-60 and they lead the AL East, while the Rays are 4th in the division with a record of 69-72. Zach Eflin will start for the Orioles, and the money line odds have them as the favorite at -185. The Rays are starting Ryan Pepiot, and they are +155 on the money line.
There does appear to be a chance of rain in Baltimore on Saturday, with the forecasted temperature being 76 degrees. MASN will be televising this matchup, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. Tampa Bay has lost two straight heading into the game.
Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore Key Information
- Teams: Rays at Orioles
- Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore
- Date: Saturday, September 7th
- Betting Odds BAL -185 | TB +155 O/U 8
The Rays Can Win If…
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Orioles on the road. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 7-6 with an ERA of 3.76. Pepiot’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.12. In his 21 starts, he has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 9.53 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his most recent outing, Pepiot finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
So far this season, the Rays have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league, as they are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the MLB. Their team batting average of .230 is also near the bottom of the league, and they are 25th in home runs. However, they do have a good team walk rate and have been average in terms of their batting average on balls in play.
Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ top hitter this season, batting .275 with 13 home runs and 62 RBIs. He has gone just 4/17 in his last four games, but did hit a home run in that stretch. Christopher Morel comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak but is batting just .197 for the season.
- The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Rays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
- Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 5-3-2 in their last ten games.
- The Rays have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
- Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense
The Orioles Can Win If…
Zach Eflin has been pitching well for the Orioles, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced the Rockies on September 1st and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Eflin has made 24 starts and has a record of 10-7. His ERA for the season is 3.60, along with a WHIP of 1.12. Opposing batters are hitting .251 off Eflin this season. The right-hander has made 11 quality starts and is averaging 7.65 strikeouts per nine innings.
As a team, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and have the top isolated power rating in the league. Overall, they are 3rd in the league in scoring at 5 runs per game. At home, they are averaging 4.8 runs per contest, which is 9th in the league. Baltimore comes into the game with the league’s top slugging percentage and are 4th in OPS.
Gunnar Henderson has been swinging a hot bat for the Orioles, going 10/23 in his last six games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .282 with 36 homers and 85 RBIs. Anthony Santander has also been a big power threat for the Orioles, as his 39 homers are 3rd in the league. However, he is batting just .241 for the season.
- The Orioles are 6-4 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Orioles are 4-1 vs. the run line.
- Baltimore has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
- The Orioles have an average of 6.2 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Orioles are 4-6
- Looking back across the Orioles last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
- Baltimore has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Orioles have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense
The Baltimore Orioles are riding high with their sights set on more than just a winning record as they lead the American League East. On Saturday, they take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of a three-game series, looking to keep their momentum going strong.
Orioles Clinch Winning Record with Another Strong Performance
The Orioles (82-60) locked in a winning record for the third straight season with a 2-0 victory over the Rays on Friday. Right-hander Dean Kremer was the star, silencing concerns after getting hit in the forearm by a line drive in his last start. Kremer took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning, ultimately giving up just two hits over six scoreless innings.
“He’s matured so much as a player, and he knows what’s at stake,” said Orioles manager Brandon Hyde. “A lot of guys would’ve asked for more rest, but he pushed through. He’s still got seams on his wrist from the ball, but he was determined.” Kremer’s resilience is a testament to Baltimore’s focus as they aim for much bigger goals this season.
Gunnar Henderson Powers Orioles’ Offense
Even though the Orioles’ pitching stole the show, the offense did just enough to secure the win. Gunnar Henderson, the Orioles’ rising star, had two of the team’s four hits. Henderson also launched his 36th home run of the season and is now batting .474 in September.
“I’ve been feeling good at the plate,” Henderson said. “I’m just trying to help the team win and keep building on what we’ve done.” His power and consistency have been key for Baltimore as they continue to lead the AL East.
Rays Struggle to Keep Wild-Card Hopes Alive
The Tampa Bay Rays (69-72) are in a tough spot, having lost four of their last six games, which has hurt their wild-card chances. On Friday, their offense managed only three singles, and they were without infielder Brandon Lowe, who’s sidelined with a finger injury.
“We need to give him some time to recover and hopefully get him back soon,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said, highlighting just how thin the Rays’ lineup has become at a crucial point in the season.
Pitching Matchup: Eflin vs. Pepiot
The Orioles will send Zach Eflin (10-7, 3.60 ERA) to the mound on Saturday. Eflin has been in red-hot form since joining Baltimore, boasting a 5-0 record with a 1.95 ERA in five starts. His last outing against the Rays on Aug. 9 saw him pitch seven shutout innings, so he’ll be looking to dominate again.
The Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot (7-6, 3.76 ERA), who is working his way back after a right knee injury. Pepiot has been solid since returning, with a 1-1 record and 3.10 ERA in his last four starts. However, his last matchup against the Orioles in June was a tough one, where he gave up four runs, including homers to Gunnar Henderson and James McCann.
Key Matchups to Watch
Dean Kremer’s Resilience:
Kremer’s ability to bounce back from injury and deliver strong outings will be crucial for Baltimore’s continued success.
Gunnar Henderson’s Hot Streak:
Henderson is on fire, and his power could once again spark the Orioles’ offense. Can the Rays contain him?
Zach Eflin vs. Ryan Pepiot:
Eflin has been dominant since joining the Orioles, while Pepiot will look to turn the tables after a tough last outing against Baltimore. This pitching duel will be pivotal.
What’s at Stake?
For the Orioles, maintaining their stronghold at the top of the AL East is just the start. With solid performances from key players, they’re aiming to secure a high seed heading into the postseason.
For the Rays, a win is essential to keep their wild-card hopes alive. With their recent struggles, they can’t afford to lose any more ground if they want to stay in the playoff race.
With both teams pushing for critical wins, Saturday’s game is shaping up to be a high-stakes battle with major postseason implications.
The Lean
For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 3rd highest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the highest home run projection. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Orioles to come out on top. The Orioles have the best team home run projection, and Zach Eflin has the 4th best innings pitched projection among today’s starters.
