Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions October 2nd 2024

Zach Eflin eager to face Royals, keep Orioles’ season alive

The over/under line for Wednesday’s Royals vs. Orioles matchup is currently at 7.5 runs, with the under paying out at -111 compared to -110 for the over. Baltimore is the favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -158, while the Royals are +134.

First pitch for this one is set for 4:38 PM ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Seth Lugo is starting for the Royals, and he is facing off against Zach Eflin and the Orioles, who have won three straight. This game will be televised on ESPN.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore Key Information

• Teams: Royals at Orioles
• Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore
• Date: Wednesday, October 2nd
• Betting Odds BAL -158 | KC +134 O/U 7.5

The Royals Can Win If…

As the Royals head into game two of their series against the Orioles, they hold a 1-0 lead and will look to close things out on the road. Kansas City finished the regular season with an 86-76 record, going 45-36 at home and 41-40 on the road. They’ve won two straight as road underdogs.

During the regular season, the Royals posted a run line record of 90-73, with an average run margin of +0.6 per game. They’ve covered the run line in three consecutive road games. The under has hit in four straight Royals games, and their over/under record stands at 69-89. Today’s 7.5-run line is lower than 80.9% of their games this season.

Seth Lugo will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Braves on September 28th, he started and went 2 innings, not giving up a run. In that outing, he gave up one hit and one walk. Looking back further, Lugo has made 33 starts and has a record of 16-9. His ERA for the season is 3.00, along with a WHIP of 1.09. Lugo has one complete game shutout this year and 22 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.88 strikeouts and just 2.09 walks. For the year, Lugo has allowed 16 homers.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the league, and are one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts. Kansas City’s team on-base percentage of .306 is 16th in the league, and they are also 11th in slugging percentage.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, as he is batting .332 with 32 home runs and 109 RBIs. His 109 RBIs are 5th in the league. Salvador Perez is also having a good season at the plate, with a batting average of .271 and 27 homers. Witt Jr. comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak, but Hunter Renfroe has struggled of late, going just 3/18 in his last six games.

• The Royals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Royals are 7-3
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Kansas City has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

The Orioles Can Win If…

Facing a must-win game against Kansas City, Baltimore looks to even the series at home, where they posted a 44-37 record this season. The Orioles went 47-34 on the road and finished the regular season 91-71. They’ve dropped their last three games at home and as the favorite.

On the run line, Baltimore went 87-76 overall, including 38-44 at home. They’ve also lost three straight against the run line at home. The Orioles’ over/under record is 87-64, and 79.6% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line.

Zach Eflin gets the start for the Orioles today and comes in with a record of 10-9 and an ERA of 3.59. So far this year, he has made 28 starts, and opponents are batting .252 off the right-hander. Eflin has made 13 quality starts this year and is averaging 7.29 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Eflin finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had gone six straight starts without giving up more than two earned runs. Eflin has given up a homer in three straight outings.

As a team, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and are also among the league leaders in runs per game, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. They have been especially good on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Over the team’s last five games, Emmanuel Rivera and Ryan O’Hearn have both hit two home runs, with Rivera batting .556 and O’Hearn at .385.

Anthony Santander is 3rd in the league with 44 home runs this season, and he is also 10th in the league with 102 RBIs. However, he is batting just .235. Gunnar Henderson has been the team’s top hitter this season, batting .281 with 37 homers.

• The Orioles are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Orioles are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Baltimore has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Orioles have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Orioles are 6-4
• Looking back across the Orioles last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Baltimore has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Orioles have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Royals vs. Orioles matchup is to take the Royals to win. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the under, as this is our highest projected game in terms of home runs, and this line is set at 7.5 runs. The Royals offense is our top projected unit in terms of hits, and Seth Lugo is 5th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

Baltimore – With their season hanging by a thread, the Baltimore Orioles are turning to right-hander Zach Eflin in a do-or-die Game 2 of the American League Wild-Card series against the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles, after a narrow 1-0 defeat in Game 1, are on the verge of elimination and will need Eflin to deliver a standout performance to break their nine-game postseason losing streak.

Eflin, who started the season with the Tampa Bay Rays, now faces a far more intense stage in front of a raucous Camden Yards crowd. Having been acquired by the Orioles in a mid-season trade, he will take the mound Wednesday night as Baltimore tries to extend their season.

“It’s a really special place here in October,” Eflin said about playing in Baltimore’s storied ballpark. “We’re looking forward to keeping this going.”

Should the Orioles win Game 2, they would host a decisive Game 3 on Thursday. However, their history of playoff struggles, which includes a sweep at the hands of the Texas Rangers last year in the Division Series, looms over them. The Orioles’ manager, Brandon Hyde, isn’t planning any rallying speeches but acknowledges the pressure his team is under.

“Everybody understands the position we’re in,” Hyde said. “I don’t think it’s a team-meeting rally cry, it’s just focusing on playing good baseball.”

Eflin’s Experience and Pressure-Handling Ability

Eflin enters the matchup as one of Baltimore’s more experienced postseason pitchers. Across 11 playoff appearances (one start) with the Phillies (2022) and Rays (2023), Eflin holds a 5.17 ERA over 15 2/3 innings. While his postseason numbers aren’t spectacular, the ninth-year veteran is unshaken by the stakes of October baseball.

“At the end of the day, you treat it like any other game,” Eflin said. “Obviously, knowing the circumstances behind the game, but you’ve got to stay free and easy and play like that.”

During the 2023 regular season, Eflin posted a solid 10-9 record with a 3.59 ERA, making him a key figure in the Orioles’ pitching rotation. He will need to replicate that form against a Royals team that is just one win away from advancing to the AL Division Series to face the top-seeded New York Yankees.

Royals Riding High with Witt Jr.’s Heroics

The Royals, who last made the playoffs during their 2015 World Series run, are just one victory away from hosting a playoff game in Kansas City for the first time in nearly a decade. One of the breakout stars for the Royals in Game 1 was 24-year-old shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who drove in the game’s only run with a two-out single in the sixth inning.

For Witt, the idea of bringing playoff baseball back to Kansas City gives him chills.

“Hearing the crowd here (in Baltimore), I can’t imagine what it’s going to be like in Kansas City,” Witt said. “That’s what we worked for last offseason – bringing October baseball back to Kansas City.”

Despite his youth, Witt isn’t fazed by the magnitude of the moment. His composed approach mirrors Eflin’s mindset, treating the postseason with the same fundamentals as any other game.

“It’s just one of those things where it’s the same game you’ve always played,” Witt said. “The pitcher is 60 feet, 6 inches away. First base is 90 feet away. Second base is another 90 feet away.”

The Pitching Showdown: Eflin vs. Lugo

Facing off against Eflin will be Kansas City’s ace, Seth Lugo. Lugo, who has revitalized his career in his first season with the Royals, posted a standout 16-9 record with a 3.00 ERA during the 2023 regular season. His performance earned him his first career All-Star appearance and established him as a reliable arm for Kansas City’s postseason push.

Though Lugo has only minimal postseason experience (three games, two scoreless innings for the Mets in 2022), his consistent form throughout the year gives the Royals confidence heading into Game 2.

Lugo’s familiarity with the Orioles is limited; he has faced Baltimore only three times in his career, with a 0-1 record and a 3.86 ERA. However, he will look to draw on the poise he’s shown all season to help Kansas City close out the series.

Eflin, on the other hand, has a 3-1 record against Kansas City in four career starts, though his 5.09 ERA against the Royals shows they’ve been able to challenge him at times.

A Crucial Moment for Baltimore

For the Orioles, Wednesday’s game represents a critical juncture. They must shake off their postseason demons and find a way to stay alive, leaning on Eflin’s experience and the support of the home crowd to push the series to a decisive Game 3. The Orioles’ lineup, which was held scoreless in Game 1, will need to come to life against Lugo if they are to avoid another early postseason exit.

If Eflin can deliver and the Orioles’ bats wake up, Baltimore will have a chance to rewrite their recent playoff history. However, with Kansas City playing with confidence and the promise of a home playoff game on the horizon, the Royals will be equally motivated to clinch the series.

Conclusion

Game 2 between the Orioles and Royals promises to be a high-stakes affair, with both teams relying on veteran pitching and rising stars to define their postseason fates. Baltimore will hope Eflin’s postseason composure and Camden Yards’ energy can help them stave off elimination, while Kansas City looks to continue their momentum and secure a trip to the AL Division Series.

The stage is set for a thrilling contest, with everything on the line for both teams