San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions September 17th 2024

From PETCO Park in San Diego, we have an interleague matchup between the Astros and Padres. The Astros are 1st in the AL West with a record of 81-69, while the Padres are 2nd in the NL West at 86-65. Houston is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 9:40 PM ET, and the forecast is clear in San Diego. Hunter Brown will start for the Astros, while the Padres are going with Michael King. San Diego is on a four-game winning streak.

Houston vs. San Diego Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Padres
• Where: PETCO Park San Diego
• Date: Tuesday, September 17th
• Betting Odds SD -114 | HOU -103 O/U 7.5

The Astros Can Win If…

Hunter Brown will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Athletics, as he gave up five earned runs in five innings of work. In that start, he gave up one homer. Brown took the loss in that outing. Before that, he had turned in three straight solid starts, notching a quality start in each. Brown’s ERA for the season is 3.59, along with a record of 11-8. Out of his 28 starts, he has made 17 quality starts. Per nine innings, Brown is averaging 9.57 strikeouts and 3.19 walks.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ most consistent hitter this season, batting .308 with a team-high 34 home runs and 85 RBIs. Jose Altuve is also having a strong season, hitting .302 with 19 homers and 63 RBIs. Alex Bregman has 23 homers but is hitting just .254 for the season and has gone just 6/34 in his last eight games.

As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up an average of 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, Houston is 10th in home runs and is 3rd in the league in strikeouts.

• The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 4-6
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Houston has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.7 runs per game on offense

The Padres Can Win If…

Right-hander Michael King gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Astros at home. King has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 12-9 with a 3.06 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, King has a WHIP of 1.21 and has issued 3.34 walks per nine innings compared to 10.63 strikeouts. In his last outing, King took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins was a complete-game shutout. Opponents are batting .219 off King this season.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a combined batting average of .266. They are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the best team slugging percentage in the league. The Padres are also the top team in the league in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.

Luis Arraez has been on a tear of late, going 16/32 over his last seven games, and is currently on a 14-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .323 with four homers. Manny Machado has been the team’s top power threat, as his 26 homers are 15th in the league, and his 99 RBIs are 8th best in the MLB.

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.1 runs per game on offense

Padres Seek Fifth Straight Win Against Astros as Postseason Race Heats Up

The San Diego Padres, riding a hot streak, will aim to stretch their winning run to five games as they host the Houston Astros on Tuesday night in the second game of a crucial three-game series. The Padres took the opener 3-1, thanks to a dominant pitching performance by Yu Darvish and timely home runs from Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar. With the playoffs approaching, both teams are eyeing this matchup with serious postseason implications on the line.

San Diego’s Late Surge Fuels Playoff Hopes

The Padres, now sitting 21 games over .500, are in a commanding position in the National League wild-card race, holding a 2.5-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the top spot. With their recent surge—going 36-15 since July 20—San Diego is also looking to chase down the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the NL West by 3.5 games. Every win counts as they push for home-field advantage in the wild-card round.

The Padres will hand the ball to Michael King (12-9, 3.06 ERA), who aims to rebound after a tough loss against the Seattle Mariners in his last start. King allowed three runs (one earned) over five innings but struck out six, continuing his strong form. Historically, King has fared well against Houston, boasting a 3-1 record with a 2.61 ERA in six career appearances against them, dating back to his time with the New York Yankees.

Astros Eye Bounce-Back After Game 1 Defeat

The Houston Astros (81-69) need a win to avoid losing ground in the American League West race, where they hold a four-game lead over the Seattle Mariners. The Astros will counter with Hunter Brown (11-8, 3.59 ERA), who is coming off a tough outing against the Oakland Athletics, where he allowed five runs on nine hits over five-plus innings.

Houston’s offense, led by Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez, will need to step up after being held in check by Darvish in Game 1. Tucker, still recovering from a shin injury, has struggled since his return, hitting just .259. The Astros will be relying on his resurgence as they aim to secure the division title.

Key Matchups to Watch

Michael King vs. Astros’ Offense
King’s previous success against Houston makes this a must-watch matchup. With Houston’s offense capable of explosive innings, the duo of Álvarez and Bregman will be the biggest threats to King’s control. Expect King to utilize his strikeout ability to counter the power-hitting Astros.

Hunter Brown vs. Padres’ Hitters
After a shaky start against Oakland, Brown needs a bounce-back performance to keep the Astros in contention. San Diego’s lineup, which has been red-hot lately, will challenge him, with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. capable of breaking the game open at any moment. Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar, fresh off home runs in Game 1, add depth to San Diego’s offense.

Injury Updates Impacting the Series

San Diego Padres Injuries

• Joey Bosa (back) is listed as questionable, while safety Alohi Gilman (knee) is doubtful.
• Puka Nacua (knee) will miss time, along with other key defensive players.

Houston Astros Injuries

• Derrick Brown (knee) is out for the season, weakening the Astros’ defense.
• Max Muncy (knee) and Christian McCaffrey (foot) will also be out, adding more pressure to Hunter Brown’s performance on the mound.

What’s at Stake

For the Padres, another win would help solidify their wild-card standing and keep pressure on the Dodgers in the division race. With home-field advantage on the line, every game down the stretch is critical for San Diego.

For the Astros, maintaining their lead in the AL West is the priority. A loss would give the Mariners a chance to gain ground in the standings, tightening the race as the season nears its conclusion.

Conclusion

With the Padres seeking their fifth consecutive win and the Astros needing a bounce-back victory, Tuesday’s matchup is set to be a high-stakes battle between two playoff contenders. Both teams will need standout performances from their pitchers and contributions from key hitters as they fight for crucial postseason positioning.

The Lean

As the Padres host the Astros today, we are leaning towards the Padres picking up a win at home. We also like the over in this one, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of the day, and the 5th in terms of hits. San Diego starter Michael King has the 7th best odds to pick up a win among today’s starters.