San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Picks and Predictions September 8th 2024

From PETCO Park in San Diego, we have the Giants and Padres facing off in an NL West matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 4:10 PM ET, and NBCS will be televising the Giants.

San Francisco is 70-73 overall, while the Padres are 81-63. Joe Musgrove will start for the Padres, while the Giants are starting Spencer Bivens. San Diego is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -201 compared to the Giants at +166.

San Francisco vs. San Diego Key Information

• Teams: Giants at Padres
• Where: PETCO Park San Diego
• Date: Sunday, September 8th
• Betting Odds SD -201 | SF +166 O/U 8

The Giants Can Win If…

Right-hander Spencer Bivens gets the start for the Giants today as he faces the Padres on the road. Bivens has made 19 appearances this season and has a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 2.86. Most of his work has come out of the bullpen, but he did make one start, which came on September 4th against the Diamondbacks. In that outing, he went four innings, giving up two earned runs, three hits, and two walks. Bivens finished with a no-decision in that outing. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three appearances.

For the season, the Giants are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. This is also where they rank in terms of home runs, as they are batting a collective .239, which is 15th in the MLB. As a team, they are 16th in on-base percentage and 16th in slugging. San Francisco’s offense has been led by Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos, who have 22 and 20 homers, respectively.

Michael Conforto, Matt Chapman, and Heliot Ramos all come into the game on three-game hitting streaks. Over his last four games, Grant McCray has gone 5/12 with two homers and five RBIs. Tyler Fitzgerald has also been swinging the bat well, going 6/20 in his last five games.

• The Giants are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Giants are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• San Francisco has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Giants have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Giants are 4-6
• Looking back across the Giants last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• San Francisco has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Giants have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Padres Can Win If…

Joe Musgrove will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Tigers, he went six innings and gave up just three hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Musgrove has made 15 starts and has a record of 5-4. His ERA for the season is 4.09, along with a WHIP of 1.23. Musgrove has turned in seven quality starts this year and is averaging 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 10 homers. Musgrove’s ERA on the road is 6.19 compared to 4.26 at home.

San Diego’s offense comes into today’s game as the league’s top batting average team, hitting a combined .265. They are also one of the top scoring teams in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game.

Over the team’s last nine games, both Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado have three homers. Machado has gone 12/38 in this stretch, while Merrill is hitting .281. Machado’s 11 RBIs in this stretch is also the best on the team. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are also both on a three-game hitting streak.

• The Padres are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Padres are 5-5
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

The San Diego Padres are gearing up for a pivotal game against the San Francisco Giants on Sunday, and it’s all on the line. After a tough 6-3 loss on Saturday, the Padres are eager to bounce back and secure the series victory, with ace Joe Musgrove set to take the mound. As both teams push for a wild-card spot, every game counts in this intense playoff race.

Jackson Merrill’s Injury Status: Will He Play?

Rookie sensation Jackson Merrill has been one of the most exciting players for the Padres this season, but his status for Sunday’s game is uncertain after taking a foul ball to the knee on Friday. Diagnosed with a patella contusion, Merrill was held out of Saturday’s game but made a brief pinch-hit appearance in the ninth inning, though he was unable to get on base.

Padres manager Mike Shildt is hopeful that Merrill will be able to return for the series finale. Merrill has been a force for San Diego, posting a .289 average with 22 home runs and 82 RBIs — setting a franchise record for rookie RBIs. His presence in the lineup could be key for the Padres as they look to close out the series strong.

Even with both Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined on Saturday, the Padres managed to get 10 hits off Giants ace Logan Webb. However, they couldn’t string together the hits they needed, as Webb’s ability to induce three double plays kept the Padres from capitalizing on their opportunities. With San Diego holding a slim 1.5-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the top National League wild-card spot, they need to lock down the win on Sunday.

Joe Musgrove: The Padres’ Ace in the Hole

When the Padres need a win, they turn to Joe Musgrove — and for good reason. Musgrove (5-4, 4.09 ERA) has been absolutely dominant since returning from the injured list. Over his last five starts, he’s given up only four runs, and in his most recent outing, he tossed six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Musgrove allowed just three hits and struck out eight, continuing his hot streak at the perfect time for the Padres.

Since coming back from injury, Musgrove has managed to lower his ERA by nearly a full run, and he’ll look to continue his dominant run against the Giants. He’s had mixed results against San Francisco in the past, with a 4-4 record and a 4.03 ERA in 14 career starts. Earlier this season, he struggled in an 8-3 loss to the Giants, allowing four runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings. But with his recent form, Musgrove looks poised to give the Padres a strong outing on Sunday.

Giants Banking on Rookie Standout Grant McCray

The San Francisco Giants (70-73) are coming off a big win on Saturday, thanks in large part to rookie Grant McCray, who had a career night. McCray belted two home runs, with his second bomb traveling an impressive 425 feet in the ninth inning for extra insurance runs. His emergence has been one of the bright spots for the Giants this season, as he continues to prove he belongs in the big leagues.

Giants manager Bob Melvin is excited about what the future holds for his outfield, especially with players like McCray, Jung Hoo Lee, and Heliot Ramos showing promise. Ramos, in particular, has been a breakout star this season, hitting 20 home runs and solidifying his spot in the Giants’ lineup.

Giants’ Pitching Situation: Spencer Bivens Steps In

The Giants were initially set to start Kyle Harrison on Sunday, but with Harrison hitting the injured list due to left shoulder inflammation, San Francisco will now turn to right-hander Spencer Bivens. Bivens (3-1, 2.86 ERA) has primarily worked out of the bullpen this season, making 19 appearances with just one start under his belt. Sunday’s game will be a big test for the 27-year-old, who has never faced the Padres before.

For the Giants, Bivens will need to deliver a strong performance to give them a shot at winning the series. His ability to navigate through the Padres’ lineup, especially if key hitters like Jackson Merrill return, could make all the difference.

Key Things to Watch: Musgrove vs. McCray

Sunday’s game is loaded with storylines that could shape the playoff race for both teams. With Joe Musgrove on the mound, the Padres have a real shot at securing the series win, but they’ll need their offense to step up and capitalize on opportunities — something they failed to do on Saturday.

On the other side, Grant McCray and the Giants’ young core are making waves, and with Spencer Bivens stepping in for a spot start, it’ll be interesting to see if the rookie can keep San Diego’s lineup in check. The Giants are fighting to stay alive in the wild-card race, and a series win over the Padres would be a huge boost to their playoff hopes.

High Stakes Showdown

Sunday’s game is a must-win for both the Padres and Giants as they fight for postseason positioning. With Joe Musgrove on the mound, the Padres are counting on their ace to lead them to victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are looking for more magic from rookie Grant McCray and hoping that Spencer Bivens can hold his own in a spot start. This game could have huge playoff implications, making it a can’t-miss showdown for baseball fans everywhere.

The Lean

Looking at who we are leaning on taking for a money line pick in this Giants vs. Padres matchup, we like the Giants to come out on top. We are also leaning towards taking the over, as this is our highest projected scoring game of the day. The Giants have the 2nd best team hits projection and 3rd best home runs projection. On the other side, Joe Musgrove has the 8th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.