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Wednesday’s matchup between the Pirates and Padres is set to get started at 4:10 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, CA. The Padres are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -136 compared to the Pirates at +116. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
SN PT will be televising this NL matchup, and on the Padres side, they will be looking to extend their two-game win streak with Martín Pérez on the mound. The Pirates are starting Mitch Keller and are 5th in the NL Central, while the Padres are 3rd in the NL West. Pittsburgh comes in with a record of 56-63, while the Padres are 68-53.
Pittsburgh vs. San Diego Key Information
- Teams: Pirates at Padres
- Where: PETCO Park San Diego
- Date: Wednesday, August 14th
- Betting Odds SD -136 | PIT +116 O/U 8.5
The Pirates Can Win If…
Pittsburgh is sending right-hander Mitch Keller to the mound today vs. the Padres. This year, he has made 23 starts and has a record of 10-6. Keller’s ERA is 3.56, along with a WHIP of 1.23. In his 23 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 8.12 strikeouts per nine innings. Keller’s last outing was a rough one, as he gave up seven earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Dodgers. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up a homer.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are 22nd in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.2 runs per game. They have been a bit better on the road, also averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, the Pirates are batting just .235, which is 18th in the league, and are also near the bottom of the league in slugging percentage and OPS.
Bryan Reynolds is the Pirates’ top hitter this season, batting .288 with a team-high 19 home runs. He also leads the team in RBIs. Reynolds has gone 10/36 in his last eight games. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are also near the top of the Pirates’ home run leaderboard, with 18 homers apiece.
- The Pirates are 1-9 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Pirates are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
- The Pirates have an average of 2.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 3-7
- Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
- Pittsburgh has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 3.8 runs per game on offense
The Padres Can Win If…
Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces off against the Pirates at home. So far this season, he has made 18 starts and has a record of 2-5 with an ERA of 4.78. Looking at his overall numbers, Pérez has a WHIP of 1.51 and has allowed a total of 16 home runs. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had gone three straight starts without giving up a homer. Pérez has made seven quality starts this year.
So far this season, the Padres have been the league’s top offensive team in terms of batting average and also have the fewest strikeouts in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest.
Jurickson Profar has been the Padres’ top power threat this season, leading the team with 19 home runs and 72 RBIs. He is also batting .295, which is 4th best on the team. Manny Machado is 2nd on the team with 18 homers and 70 RBIs. Over his last five games, Machado is 8/22, while Jackson Merrill has two homers in this stretch but is just 4/18.
- The Padres are 9-1 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- San Diego has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
- The Padres have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Padres are 8-2
- Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
- San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 6.7 runs per game on offense
The San Diego Padres are on fire, winning 18 of their last 21 games, and they’re aiming to keep that momentum rolling. As they gear up for the final game of a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, they’re not just looking for another win—they’re gunning for a sweep and hoping for a victory that doesn’t come down to the wire.
Padres’ Hot Streak and Playoff Hopes
The Padres have been on a tear since their dominant 6-0 win over the Pirates on August 6th. In their last seven games, they’ve come out on top in six, but it hasn’t been easy. The games have been nail-biters, with a slim 11-run difference across those six wins. Three of those games were so close they went into extra innings, showcasing just how tight the competition is—and how much the Padres have been leaning on their bullpen to get the job done.
That heavy reliance has taken its toll on key relievers. Closer Robert Suarez has been on the mound five times in the last seven days, while Tanner Scott, who they picked up at the trade deadline, has pitched in six of the last eight games. Another recent addition, Jason Adam, has also been busy, appearing in four of the last six games. Despite the fatigue, this depth in pitching has been a cornerstone of the Padres’ recent success.
“When you think of great playoff teams, it’s those with deep pitching,” said Padres starter Michael King, who dominated on Tuesday, striking out 10 over six shutout innings to secure the win. “A strong bullpen and starting rotation are what win games.”
Pirates Struggling to Find Their Footing
On the other side, the Pirates are having a rough time. A nine-game losing streak has knocked them out of wild-card contention, leaving them grasping at straws as they try to stay in the playoff race. In Tuesday’s 3-0 loss, the Pirates actually outhit the Padres 9-7 but couldn’t make it count, going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. This echoed their struggles from the series opener, where they went 1-for-10 in similar situations during a 2-1 loss.
Missed opportunities have been the story for Pittsburgh lately. On Monday, Bryan Reynolds hit a line drive that looked like it would tie the game, but Padres’ center fielder Jackson Merrill made a jaw-dropping dive in right-center to snag it. If that ball had dropped, the Pirates likely would have scored the tying run from first base.
“If you had to sum up the last 10 days, that moment pretty much captures it,” said Pirates manager Derek Shelton. “We just have to create our own luck.”
Keller vs. Perez: Who Will Come Out on Top?
In an effort to stop their slide, the Pirates are turning to right-hander Mitch Keller (10-6, 3.56 ERA) for the series finale. Keller is looking to rebound from a tough outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Friday, where he got rocked for seven runs over four innings in a 9-5 loss. Historically, Keller has done alright against the Padres, with a 2-2 record and a 3.86 ERA in four starts.
The Padres will counter with lefty Martin Perez (2-5, 4.78 ERA), who has been impressive since joining the team from the Pirates on July 30th. In his last start, Perez was stellar, going seven innings against the Miami Marlins, allowing just three hits and two runs while striking out six. He’s had success against the Pirates before, posting a 4.00 ERA in three career outings and giving up only three runs over 13 innings in his two starts for San Diego since the trade.
Perez isn’t holding any grudges about being traded. “This is a business,” Perez said. “They made the trade because maybe there wasn’t room for me, but I’m really happy to be here. I think it was the right move, and I’m proud to be part of this team.”
Padres Aim for a Sweep, Pirates Desperate for a Break
As the Padres look to close out the series with a sweep and strengthen their playoff chances, the Pirates are simply trying to stop the bleeding and get back on track. The final game of the series is shaping up to be another intense battle, with both teams eager to prove themselves.
The Padres’ pitching depth will likely play a huge role again, while the Pirates need to find a way to capitalize on their scoring chances if they want to turn things around. The outcome of this game could be a turning point for both teams as they head into the final stretch of the season. For the Padres, it’s not just about winning—it’s about making a statement that they’re a team to be reckoned with come playoff time
The Lean
For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 8th highest-scoring game of today’s slate. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning towards the Padres to come out on top. San Diego starter Martín Pérez has the 8th best odds to pick up a win and is 7th worst among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.
