San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Padres welcome back Yu Darvish for meeting with Tigers

The forecast looks good for Wednesday’s Tigers vs. Padres matchup, as temperatures are in the mid-80s and there will be a clear sky in San Diego. First pitch from PETCO Park is set for 9:40 PM ET. Detroit is 70-69, and they are 4th in the AL Central, while the Padres are 79-61 and 2nd in the NL West.

Yu Darvish will be on the mound for the Padres, and they are the heavy favorites on the money line at -192. The Tigers have Keider Montero starting, and they will be looking to pull off the upset, as they are +161 on the money line. Wednesday’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and BSDET will be televising this one.

Detroit vs. San Diego Key Information

• Teams: Tigers at Padres
• Where: PETCO Park San Diego
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds SD -192 | DET +161 O/U 7.5

The Tigers Can Win If…

Right-hander Keider Montero gets the start for the Tigers today as he faces the Padres on the road. Montero has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 4-6 with an ERA of 5.17. In his 13 appearances, Montero has a WHIP of 1.35 and has allowed a total of 13 home runs. Looking back at his last outing, Montero took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Montero’s ERA at home is 5.9 compared to 4.72 on the road.

Over the past 10 games, Spencer Torkelson has been swinging a hot bat for the Tigers, going 10/37 with three home runs. Zach McKinstry has also been hot of late, going 11/24 in his last eight games. Both hitters have been swinging the bat well, but the Tigers are hoping that they can get some more consistent production from their lineup, as they are just 22nd in runs per game this season.

Riley Greene comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and is the Tigers’ leader in home runs (20) and RBIs (58). Greene is batting .258 for the season, and he will be looking to improve on the Tigers’ team batting average of just .233. Matt Vierling is batting .261 and has 15 homers this season.

• The Tigers are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Tigers are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Detroit has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Tigers have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Tigers are 6-4
• Looking back across the Tigers last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Detroit has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Tigers have averaged 5.0 runs per game on offense

The Padres Can Win If…

Yu Darvish will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Marlins, as he gave up three earned runs in three innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Before that start, Darvish had picked up the win in three straight outings. His ERA for the season is 3.19, along with a record of 4-3. Darvish’s WHIP for the season is 1.06. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 8.47 strikeouts per nine innings. The right-hander’s ERA at home is 4.35, compared to 1.8 on the road.

San Diego comes into the game with the league’s best team batting average at .265 and are also the top team in the league in terms of fewest strikeouts per game. Overall, they are 8th in the league in runs scored (4.8) and are 4th in the league in road games at 5.1 runs per contest. The Padres have been even better at home this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game.

San Diego’s offense is led by Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar, as both players have 21 home runs this season. Machado’s 84 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and he is also on a four-game hitting streak. Luis Arraez has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/20 in his last five games.

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Padres are 5-5
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Tigers vs. Padres matchup is to take the Tigers to win. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 9th highest-scoring game of today’s 15-game slate, and this one has the 4th lowest combined strikeout projection. Yu Darvish is our highest projected starting pitcher of the day in terms of strikeouts, but we still like the Tigers’ offense to put up some runs. Looking at today’s starting pitching matchup, we have Yu Darvish working deeper into the game, but we like Keider Montero’s strikeout potential.

With less than a month remaining in the regular season, the San Diego Padres are nearing full strength as they continue their playoff push. After the return of All-Star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres are set to welcome back Yu Darvish, their Opening Day starter, when they face the Detroit Tigers in the second game of a three-game series on Wednesday night.

Yu Darvish’s Return Boosts Padres’ Playoff Hopes

Darvish (4-3, 3.20 ERA) last pitched on May 29 in a loss to the Miami Marlins before landing on the injured list due to a groin strain, followed by elbow inflammation. After pausing his rehab for personal reasons in July, Darvish rejoined the team on August 23, and now he’s ready to make his much-anticipated return to the rotation.

His return couldn’t come at a better time for the Padres, who are battling for playoff positioning in the National League Wild Card race. Darvish has been stellar this season, including a remarkable stretch of 25 consecutive scoreless innings. His career numbers against Detroit are equally impressive: a perfect 7-0 record in eight starts, with a 3.35 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 53 2/3 innings.

Darvish’s dominance over the Tigers makes him a key asset as the Padres look to build momentum with the postseason in sight.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Energizes Padres Lineup

In Monday’s 3-0 win over the Tigers, Tatis returned to the lineup after missing more than two months due to injury. Although he went 0-for-4, his presence was felt by the home crowd, which gave him a roaring ovation. Padres manager Mike Shildt emphasized how much Tatis’ energy and leadership mean to the team:

Tatis’ return provides flexibility for Shildt, allowing him to rest other players like Jurickson Profar, who had played without a break since June. Tatis’ contributions, both offensively and defensively, could be crucial as San Diego tries to maintain its position in the playoff race.

Padres’ Playoff Picture

The Padres (79-61) are locked in a tight race for the top National League Wild Card spot. As of Tuesday, San Diego held a one-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks and trailed the Los Angeles Dodgers by five games in the NL West.

With Darvish and Tatis back in the lineup, the Padres are in a strong position to fend off challengers and secure a postseason berth. Their focus remains on playing consistently down the stretch, as every game counts in this tightly contested race.

Tigers’ Playoff Push and Recent Performance

On the other side, the Detroit Tigers (70-69) are also chasing a playoff spot, though their path is more challenging. Despite a 3-0 loss on Monday, the Tigers have been surging recently, winning 15 of their last 21 games. They are still five games behind the Kansas City Royals for the final American League Wild Card position, with only 23 games left in the regular season.

Detroit’s success has been driven by strong pitching and the versatility of utility man Zach McKinstry, who batted .368 in August while playing five different positions. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch praised McKinstry’s contributions:

McKinstry’s ability to impact both offensively and defensively has helped the Tigers remain competitive as they cling to postseason hopes.

Upcoming Pitching Matchup: Darvish vs. Montero

For Wednesday’s game, the Tigers will turn to rookie right-hander Keider Montero (4-6, 5.17 ERA). Montero is coming off a loss to the Los Angeles Angels in which he allowed three runs and five hits over five innings. The young pitcher has struggled with consistency this season and will face the Padres for the first time in his career.

The Padres, with Darvish on the mound, clearly have the advantage in this pitching matchup. Darvish’s veteran experience and proven success against the Tigers make him a formidable opponent for Detroit, while Montero will need to step up in a high-stakes game to keep the Tigers’ slim playoff hopes alive.

Final Thoughts

The return of Yu Darvish and Fernando Tatis Jr. marks a critical moment for the Padres as they push for the playoffs. Darvish’s dominance on the mound and Tatis’ electrifying presence in the lineup could provide the spark San Diego needs to secure a postseason spot.

For the Tigers, the road ahead is tough, but with contributions from players like McKinstry and the solid pitching they’ve displayed recently, they remain a threat to make a late playoff run.

As both teams gear up for Wednesday’s matchup, the Padres seem poised to take control with Darvish leading the charge. For the Tigers, Montero’s performance will be key in determining whether they can hang on in the postseason race.

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