San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions September 5th 2024

Casey Mize gets the start for the Tigers, as they are on the road to face the Padres, who are 80-61. The game is being played at 8:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Tigers are on a two-game losing streak. The Padres are 2nd in the NL West, while the Tigers are 4th in the AL Central.

San Diego is the heavy favorite on the money line, with the odds sitting at -155 compared to the Tigers at +130. Thursday’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and BSDET will be televising this interleague matchup.

Casey Mize will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up four earned runs in six innings of work. In that start vs. the Red Sox, he gave up one homer. Mize finished with a no-decision in that outing. Looking back further, he has made 17 appearances and 17 starts this season, coming away with a record of 2-6 and an ERA of 4.36. Opponents have a batting average of .280 vs. Mize this season. Out of his 17 starts, Mize has five quality starts and is averaging 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed eight homers on the road and has an ERA of 7.46 away from home.

For the season, the Tigers are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. As a team, they are batting just .233. Detroit will need their top two home run hitters, Riley Greene and Matt Vierling, to get back on track, as Greene is hitting just .172 over his last eight games, and Vierling is batting .310 over that stretch.

Greene and Vierling are the Tigers top two home run hitters for the season, with 20 and 16 homers, respectively. Greene also leads the team with 58 RBIs, while Vierling is 3rd on the team with 51 RBIs. Kerry Carpenter has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/22 in his last seven games, with two homers.

Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Tigers at home. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 4-5 with an ERA of 4.71. Looking at his overall numbers, Perez has a WHIP of 1.53 and has allowed a total of 20 home runs. In his last outing, Perez picked up the win, going five innings and giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Before that, he had three straight no-decisions. Perez has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 7.14 strikeouts per nine innings.

So far this season, the Padres have been the league’s top-hitting team, batting a combined .265. They have also been one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, as they are 11th in home runs and have the league’s best slugging percentage. San Diego’s offense has been consistent, averaging 4.8 runs per game and 5.1 runs per game on the road.

Jackson Merrill has been swinging a hot bat for the Padres, going 9/24 with three homers and seven RBIs over his last six games. This has helped him move into the team’s 2nd home run hitter this season, with 22 homers. Manny Machado is just ahead of him with 23 homers and has a team-high 86 RBIs.

Martin Perez Looks to Continue Perfect Padres Record in Series Finale Against Tigers

The San Diego Padres made a smart move when they acquired veteran left-hander Martin Perez at the trade deadline. Since joining the team, Perez has been a crucial part of their push for a National League West title. In six starts for the Padres, Perez has posted a 2-0 record with a solid 3.41 ERA, and the team has won all six of his outings. Now, he’ll look to keep that unbeaten streak alive on Thursday as the Padres aim to sweep the visiting Detroit Tigers in a three-game series.

Perez Finds New Success with San Diego

Perez (4-5, 4.71 ERA overall) struggled earlier in the season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, putting up a 2-5 record and a 5.20 ERA in 16 starts. However, since arriving in San Diego, Perez has leaned more on his curveball, finding success in his revamped pitching approach. Even when he’s not at his sharpest, Perez’s veteran experience has allowed him to battle through tough outings. This was evident in his most recent start, where he gave up four runs in the second inning but regrouped to pitch five solid innings, ultimately earning the win in a 13-5 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

While Perez has a career 2-5 record with a 5.56 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts) against the Tigers, he had one of his best outings of the season against them earlier this year on April 9. Back then, he pitched eight innings of one-run ball and struck out seven while with the Pirates, though he didn’t factor into the decision.

Padres Chasing NL West Title and Wild Card Spot

The Padres (80-61) are in the thick of the playoff race. They trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by just four games in the NL West, and they’re also in a solid position in the NL Wild Card standings. With the season entering the final stretch, every win counts, and a victory on Thursday would give the Padres a crucial three-game sweep and further secure their postseason position.

Tigers Struggling After Crushing Loss

For the Detroit Tigers (70-70), the stakes are equally high, though things haven’t been going their way lately. Wednesday’s 6-5 loss in 10 innings was a tough pill to swallow. The Tigers blew a 5-0 lead, and the defeat left them 5 1/2 games behind the Kansas City Royals for the final AL Wild Card spot with just 22 games left in the regular season.

Despite the disappointing results, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch has tried to keep things steady by employing a mix of openers and bulk relievers to maximize matchups, a strategy that has brought some success.

For Thursday’s game, however, the Tigers will go with a more traditional approach, handing the ball to Casey Mize (2-6, 4.36 ERA). Mize recently returned from a two-month hamstring injury and made his first start last Friday, allowing four runs (three earned) over six innings in a 7-5, 10-inning loss to the Boston Red Sox. He will face the Padres for the first time in his career on Thursday, hoping to shake off the rust and deliver a strong outing.

Series Outlook

As the Padres look to continue their hot streak, Martin Perez will be key in maintaining his team’s perfect record when he’s on the mound. His recent success with his curveball has been a game-changer, and San Diego’s offense will need to keep rolling to back him up. On the other side, the Tigers are looking to Casey Mize to help stop the bleeding and avoid a sweep.

For Detroit, the pressure is mounting, with every loss pushing them further from the AL Wild Card chase. With both teams fighting for playoff spots, the series finale is shaping up to be a critical game with high stakes for each club’s postseason hopes.

Today’s matchup between the Tigers and Padres has the 5th highest combined run projection and 4th highest hits projection. We are leaning towards taking the Tigers to win straight-up, and our lean on the over/under line is to take the over. Looking at today’s starters, we have Casey Mize as the 9th best strikeout option compared to Martín Pérez, who is the 4th worst.