San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions August 20th 2024

At 9:40 PM ET, the Twins and Padres will square off in an interleague matchup. This one is taking place at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Twins are favored on the money line (-114). The money line odds for the Padres are sitting at -105.

The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the forecast for Tuesday’s matchup in San Diego calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 80s. Martin Perez is slated to start for the Padres, while the Twins are starting Bailey Ober. Minnesota is 70-55 this season, while the Padres are 71-55.

Right-hander Bailey Ober is getting the start for the Twins today as he faces the Padres on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA. Ober’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.00, and opponents are batting .205 off him this year. In terms of rankings, he comes in at third in the league in starter wins. Ober’s most recent outing came against the Rangers, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Carlos Santana has been a solid power threat for the Twins this season, as he is 2nd on the team with 18 homers and 55 RBIs, but he has struggled at the plate of late, going just 3/20 over his last six games. Catcher Ryan Jeffers has also been a key power source for the Twins, as he leads the team with 19 homers and 57 RBIs. Jeffers is batting just .230, and Willi Castro comes in at .256 for the season.

As a team, the Twins are 8th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are among the league’s best home run-hitting teams and have the 6th best slugging percentage in the MLB.

Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he picked up the win. Looking back further, he has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Perez has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 3-5 with a 4.62 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .281 off the left-hander this season. Perez has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 7.46 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a batting average of .265. They also have the fewest strikeouts in the league and are 1st in team on-base percentage. The Padres have been a good home run hitting team this season, as they are 13th in the league in home runs and have the league’s 10th best slugging percentage.

Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are tied for the team lead in home runs, with 19, and Profar is the team’s top run producer, with 73 RBIs. Machado is right behind him, with 71 RBIs. Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth are also near the top of the Padres’ home run leaderboard, with 17 and 15 homers, respectively. Merrill has gone 6/16 in his last four games, while Cronenworth has gone just 3/15 in his last five games.

Padres Riding High in Post-All-Star Break Surge

The San Diego Padres, boasting the best record in Major League Baseball since the All-Star break at 21-6, are set to face the Minnesota Twins in the second game of a three-game series on Tuesday night. After securing a 5-3 victory in the series opener, the Padres are determined to keep their momentum going as they aim to solidify their hold on the National League’s first wild-card spot.

Padres’ Post-All-Star Surge

Since the All-Star break, the Padres have been nearly unstoppable, winning 21 of their last 27 games. This incredible run has allowed them to maintain a one-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the top wild-card position in the NL. With the Diamondbacks also in top form, going 21-8 since the break, the Padres’ success has been both impressive and crucial for their playoff hopes.

Recap of Monday’s Victory

In Monday’s series opener, the Padres edged out the Twins 5-3, thanks to a pivotal three-run double by Jackson Merrill in the third inning that broke a 2-2 tie. The Padres’ pitching staff was solid, with starter Michael King and three relievers combining to limit the Twins to just five hits. The win not only kept the Padres in the lead for the wild-card race but also continued their post-break dominance.

Pitching Duel: Perez vs. Ober

Tuesday’s game features a compelling pitching matchup between San Diego’s Martin Perez and Minnesota’s Bailey Ober.

Martin Perez, a veteran left-hander with a 3-5 record and a 4.62 ERA, will take the mound for the Padres. Perez has been in excellent form since joining San Diego, posting a 1.95 ERA across his first three starts, all of which the Padres have won. His last outing saw him earn his first win with the team, allowing just one run over 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, Perez has historically struggled against the Twins, going 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 career appearances. The Twins have also hit 10 home runs off him in just 48 1/3 innings, a vulnerability that could play a crucial role in Tuesday’s game.

On the other side, the Twins will rely on Bailey Ober, their standout right-hander, who has been a model of consistency this season. Ober enters the game with a 12-5 record and a 3.49 ERA, coming off a strong performance against the Texas Rangers last Thursday, where he allowed two runs over six innings in a no-decision that the Twins eventually won 3-2. Ober has been dominant in his recent starts, going 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last five outings. He has struck out 34 batters while allowing just 16 hits in 34 innings during that span. With 10 consecutive quality starts, Ober’s current streak is the longest by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana’s Cy Young Award-winning season in 2004.

Twins’ Wild-Card Chase and Injury Concerns

The Twins find themselves in a tight battle for the American League’s second wild-card spot, currently tied with Kansas City and sitting 4.5 games ahead of the Boston Red Sox. However, Minnesota is dealing with a significant injury as center fielder Byron Buxton remains on the 10-day injured list due to an inflamed right hip. Buxton’s absence weakens the Twins’ lineup, though he is expected to return next week, which could provide a crucial boost as the playoff race heats up.

High-Stakes Battle in San Diego

As the Padres and Twins square off on Tuesday, both teams have plenty at stake. For the Padres, continuing their post-All-Star break dominance is key to maintaining their lead in the wild-card race. For the Twins, securing a win behind Bailey Ober’s strong pitching could not only even the series but also keep them firmly in the hunt for a playoff spot in the crowded AL wild-card race.

With a crucial pitching duel on the horizon and playoff implications for both teams, this game promises to be a hard-fought contest that could have a significant impact on each team’s postseason aspirations. Fans should expect a tense and competitive game as the Padres look to extend their hot streak and the Twins aim to cool them off.

Our lean for a money-line pick would be to take the Padres to come out on top at home. We also have this as the 5th highest-scoring game of the day and would be leaning towards taking the over. San Diego starter Martín Pérez has the 6th best team hits projection and 3rd lowest team strikeout projection among today’s starters.