Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions August 27th 2024

Justin Verlander, with no plans to slow down, faces Phils

There are 14 games on the MLB schedule for Tuesday, with the first one starting at 6:40 PM ET and the last one starting at 10:10 PM ET. This interleague matchup features the Astros and Phillies, and it is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The forecast for Tuesday’s game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 90s.

Philadelphia comes into the game with a record of 77-54 and is currently on a three-game winning streak. They are favored on the money line at -144, while the Astros have a money line payout of +121. Tuesday’s pitching matchup is Justin Verlander for the Astros and Aaron Nola for the Phillies.

Houston vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Tuesday, August 27th
• Betting Odds PHI -144 | HOU +121 O/U 8.5

The Astros Can Win If…

Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 11 starts this season and has a record of 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. Looking back at his last outing, he took the loss vs. the Red Sox, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. He has allowed at least one homer in three of his last four outings. Per nine innings, Verlander has 8.27 strikeouts and just 2.61 walks.

Yainer Diaz has been the Astros’ hottest hitter of late, going 15/43 in his last 10 games with four homers. For the season, he is batting .300 with 16 homers and 72 RBIs, which leads the team. Yordan Alvarez is also having a strong season, hitting .305 with 25 homers (11th in the league) and 67 RBIs (2nd on the team). Alex Bregman has 21 homers this season, which is 2nd on the team and 14th in the league.

As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They are also one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts. Houston comes into the game with a team batting average of .260 and an on-base percentage of .320.

• The Astros are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 7-3
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 4.7 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Astros at home. Nola has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 11-6 with a 3.45 ERA. So far, he has turned in 16 quality starts, one shutout, and one complete game. Nola’s ERA for the season is 3.49 at home compared to 4.48 on the road. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had gone two straight outings without giving up an earned run. He will look to bounce back from the outing before that, where he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work.

Over the past eight games, Bryson Stott has been swinging a hot bat for the Phillies, going 11/28 with one home run. Alec Bohm has been a consistent hitter for the Phillies this season, batting .291 with 13 home runs. Kyle Schwarber has also been a big power threat for the Phillies, as his 28 home runs are 8th in the league, and he is 2nd on the team with 82 RBIs.

Philadelphia’s offense comes into the game as one of the league’s best, as they are 5th in the league in runs per game at 4.9. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Overall, the Phillies are 4th in team batting average and have the league’s 4th best on-base percentage.

• The Phillies are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 6.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 4-6
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Philadelphia has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Despite this Astros vs. Phillies matchup being one of the lowest-scoring games in the league today, we are actually leaning towards taking the over. As for how we would play the money line, we would be leaning towards the Astros to come out on top. Houston starter Justin Verlander has the 7th best strikeout projection among today’s starters, but we still like the Phillies’ Aaron Nola to work deep into the game.

As Justin Verlander continues his journey toward the elusive milestone of 300 career wins, the veteran right-hander remains laser-focused on maintaining both his performance on the mound and his overall health. With 260 victories already under his belt, Verlander’s next challenge comes against the Philadelphia Phillies—a pivotal game in his ongoing quest for baseball immortality.

A Comeback Fueled by Determination

After missing two and a half months due to neck stiffness, Verlander returned to action with a solid outing against the Boston Red Sox. In that game, he allowed just two runs on four hits over five innings, striking out six and walking one. Though he was pulled after 76 pitches, Verlander’s performance signaled that he’s back in form.

“I felt good,” Verlander remarked post-game. “The stuff was pretty good, and as the game went along, the location started to hone in, and the mechanics felt good. So I was happy about it.”

At 41 years old, Verlander is not just focused on recovering from his recent injury but also on reaching the prestigious 300-win club, a feat achieved by only 24 pitchers in MLB history. Despite his age, Verlander has no plans to retire anytime soon, a testament to his enduring passion for the game.

“Only time will tell. I’m not trying to put a cap on anything,” Verlander said during an appearance on ESPN. “I put in all the work behind the scenes. There’s a big, shiny number that I would really like to get to that’s going to be a few years away. I’ve got a lot of goals.”

Facing the Phillies: A Critical Matchup

Verlander’s next test is against the Philadelphia Phillies, who enter Tuesday’s game with momentum following a thrilling 3-2 walk-off victory in the series opener. Bryce Harper, who delivered the game-winning hit, continues to lead a Phillies team that has won three straight games and is pushing hard in the National League East.

For the Astros, the matchup is equally crucial. They’re relying on Verlander’s experience and skill to counter the Phillies’ lineup, which has been hitting its stride. Verlander has a strong track record against Philadelphia, boasting a 3-0 record with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts against the team. However, his performance against the Phillies in the 2022 World Series was mixed, where he went 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts.

On the opposing side, Phillies’ right-hander Aaron Nola will take the mound. Nola, who holds an 11-6 record with a 3.45 ERA, has not won in his past seven starts, a streak he’s eager to break. Historically, Nola has been dominant against the Astros, holding a 3-0 record with a minuscule 0.44 ERA in three starts. Yet, his struggles in the 2022 World Series, where he went 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA against Houston, could weigh on his mind.

Health and Longevity: The Keys to Verlander’s Success

Health remains a critical factor for Verlander as he pursues his career goals. His recent return from injury is a positive sign, but it also highlights the importance of managing his workload as he continues to pitch deep into his 40s. The Astros will be careful with his pitch count, ensuring that Verlander remains effective and avoids further injuries.

Verlander’s ability to stay healthy and continue performing at a high level is essential not just for his personal milestones but also for the Astros’ success. His presence on the mound provides a stabilizing force for a team that is navigating the pressures of a highly competitive season.

Team Dynamics and the Road Ahead

Both the Astros and the Phillies face critical junctures in their seasons. For the Phillies, who are leading the National League East, maintaining their momentum is crucial as they aim for a deep playoff run. The absence of left-handed reliever Jose Alvarado, who was placed on the restricted list due to a personal issue, could be a factor in the series, putting additional pressure on the Phillies’ bullpen.

For the Astros, the focus will be on executing offensively to support Verlander. In the series opener, they fell just short, with Shay Whitcomb driving in both of Houston’s runs and Yordan Alvarez returning to the lineup after missing three games due to neck stiffness. Houston manager Joe Espada remains optimistic, saying, “Just one hit away, but our at-bats were really good.”

The Legacy Continues

As Verlander takes the mound on Tuesday, the stakes are high—not just for the game, but for his legacy. His relentless pursuit of 300 wins embodies his passion for the game and his refusal to be defined by age or setbacks. While the outcome of this single game won’t determine his future, it’s another step in a journey that continues to captivate baseball fans.

For Verlander, the message is clear: the journey isn’t over. Whether it’s this season or the next few years, he’s not just pitching to win games—he’s pitching to secure his place among the greatest to ever play the game.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Justin Verlander’s determination to continue his career and chase the milestone of 300 wins exemplifies his enduring love for baseball. His upcoming start against the Phillies is a key moment in this journey, as he faces a team with momentum and a pitcher equally eager to prove himself. For Verlander and the Astros, staying healthy and focused will be the keys to success as they navigate the challenges of the season and beyond.

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