Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions August 28th 2024

Nick Castellanos, Phillies chase sweep of Astros

The Astros and Phillies are set to face off in an interleague matchup at 4:05 PM ET. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Astros are slight -108 favorites on the money line. The Phillies are -111, and the over/under line is 9.5 runs.

Spencer Arrighetti is starting for the Astros, and he is facing off against Taijuan Walker. The Astros are 1st in the AL West, while the Phillies are 1st in the NL East. Walker’s Phillies have won four straight, while the Astros have dropped two in a row.

Houston vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds PHI -111 | HOU -108 O/U 9.5

The Astros Can Win If…

Houston is sending Spencer Arrighetti to the mound today vs. the Phillies, and he comes in with a record of 6-11 and an ERA of 4.94. Arrighetti has made 23 starts this year and has pitched well lately, going 2-1 in his last three outings. In his most recent start, he pitched six scoreless innings, picking up the win and giving up just three hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Arrighetti has a WHIP of 1.41 and is averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 17 homers and is averaging 4.09 walks per nine innings.

Yordan Alvarez has been a big power threat for the Astros this season, as his 25 homers is 1st on the team and 11th in the league. Alvarez is also 2nd on the team in RBIs, with 67. He is batting .305 for the season and has a very strong on-base percentage of .394. Alex Bregman has 21 homers this season, which is 2nd on the team, but he is just 7/31 in his last seven games.

The Astros come into the game with the 3rd best team batting average in the league at .260. Overall, they are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. Houston has been a good home run hitting team this season and are also near the top of the league in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.

• The Astros are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 3.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 6-4
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Right-hander Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Astros at home. Walker has made 13 starts this year and has a record of 3-5 with a 6.26 ERA. His WHIP for the season is 1.58. Walker has turned in just two quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing against the Royals, where he gave up six earned runs in three innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Walker has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four starts.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Overall, the Phillies are 8th in home runs and have the league’s 4th best team batting average.

Over his last four games, J.T. Realmuto has gone 8/17 with two homers and seven RBIs. Nick Castellanos has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/21 with two homers over his last five games. Castellanos also comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak.

• The Phillies are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 6.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 4-6
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Philadelphia has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Astros vs. Phillies matchup is to take the Phillies to come out on top. We are also leaning towards the under, as this is our 8th lowest projected scoring game of the day. Looking at the starters for this matchup, we have Taijuan Walker as our highest projected innings eater of the day, and he has the 5th best odds to pick up a win.

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Nick Castellanos has become the embodiment of resilience for the Philadelphia Phillies this season. Despite early struggles, Castellanos has steadily turned his season around, reflecting the team’s determination as they aim to complete a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros on Wednesday.

Castellanos’ Journey from Slump to Success

Castellanos began the 2023 season on shaky ground, with a disappointing .521 OPS through April. His performance in May wasn’t much better, leaving fans and analysts questioning his form. However, as the summer months progressed, Castellanos found his rhythm, proving that perseverance pays off.

Now, as August draws to a close, Castellanos is in the midst of a hot streak, having hit safely in five straight games and 13 of the last 15. His resurgence was most evident during Tuesday night’s game, where he smashed a clutch three-run homer off Justin Verlander, propelling the Phillies to a 5-0 victory.

“I don’t really have an approach,” Castellanos said candidly after his 18th home run of the season. “I look for the baseball and hit it as hard as I can.”

The Trust Factor: Rob Thomson’s Unwavering Confidence

Much of Castellanos’ revival can be attributed to the unwavering support of Phillies manager Rob Thomson. Since Opening Day, Thomson has made it clear that he trusts Castellanos, penciling him into the lineup every single game. This commitment has not gone unnoticed by Castellanos, who nearly played a full season last year with 157 games under his belt.

“From a coaching standpoint, trust is the biggest thing you can have for your players,” Castellanos remarked. “If you don’t feel like a manager has your back, that’s pretty uninspiring to lace up your cleats for him.”

Thomson’s faith in Castellanos has been rewarded, as the right fielder’s third-inning blast on Tuesday helped secure the Phillies’ fourth consecutive win, pushing them closer to the playoff picture.

Pitching Challenges: Walker’s Struggles and Nola’s Dominance

As the Phillies prepare for the final game of the series, their pitching situation remains a mixed bag. Aaron Nola was dominant on Tuesday, delivering seven scoreless innings and proving why he’s one of the team’s aces. His performance set a high bar for Taijuan Walker, who has struggled significantly this season.

Walker, with a 3-5 record and a concerning 6.26 ERA, is at a critical juncture. After giving up six runs in just three innings against the Kansas City Royals last Friday, Walker knows that his spot in the rotation is on shaky ground.

“It just hasn’t been good lately,” Walker admitted after his last outing. “You want to help the team as much as possible. … It would be nice for myself to be able to pick the team up. I just haven’t really done that, so it’s frustrating.”

Walker will need to deliver a strong performance on Wednesday to help the Phillies complete the sweep and to secure his place in the rotation.

Astros Struggling to Avoid Sweep

The Astros, a perennial powerhouse, are not in a good place. With six losses in their last eight games, they are teetering on the brink of their first sweep since late April. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti will take the mound for Houston, carrying a 6-11 record and a 4.94 ERA into the game. Despite his overall numbers, Arrighetti has been a bright spot recently, posting a 2.55 ERA in four starts this month.

“I’m a competitive person. I’m always trying to outdo the other guy,” Arrighetti said, reflecting his determination to turn things around for the Astros.

However, Arrighetti will need more support from his offense. Key players like Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Peña have struggled in this series, with Diaz going 1-for-9 with five strikeouts and Peña hitless in his last eight at-bats. The Astros’ inability to generate runs has been a significant factor in their recent slide.

Verlander’s Perspective: A Veteran’s Insight

Justin Verlander, a seasoned veteran, provided some context to the Astros’ recent woes, noting that sometimes the outcome of games hinges on the smallest details.

“Sometimes in these stretches, one pitch doesn’t go your way, one ball doesn’t go your way, one whatever — it’s the difference between winning and losing,” Verlander observed. “Against tough opponents, I feel like we’ve played pretty damn well. Just the wins haven’t shown up.”

Conclusion: A Crucial Game for Both Teams

As the Phillies chase a sweep and the Astros fight to avoid it, Wednesday’s game is crucial for both teams. For Philadelphia, it’s an opportunity to build on their momentum and strengthen their playoff hopes. For Houston, it’s a chance to stop the bleeding and get back on track as the season heads into its final stretch.

Nick Castellanos’ journey from a slow start to a strong finish is emblematic of the Phillies’ own season – one that started with uncertainty but now brims with potential. With trust, resilience, and determination, both Castellanos and the Phillies are proving they have what it takes to compete at the highest level.