Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions August 29th 2024

Braves face critical division matchup with Phillies

There are a pair of NL East rivals facing off on Thursday, as the Braves and Phillies are playing at 6:40 PM ET at Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies are 1st in the NL East with a record of 78-55, while the Braves are 2nd in the division at 73-60.

Charlie Morton will start for the Braves, while the Phillies are sending Cristopher Sanchez to the mound. Philadelphia is the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -149 compared to the Braves at +125. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Atlanta vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Braves at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Thursday, August 29th
• Betting Odds PHI -149 | ATL +125 O/U 8.5

The Braves Can Win If…

Right-hander Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 7-7 with an ERA of 4.24. Morton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. In his 24 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 9.09 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Morton finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

For the season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 11th in the league, and have the 4th most home runs in the league.

Marcell Ozuna comes into the game with a three-game hitting streak and is batting .309 for the season with a team-high 37 home runs and 98 RBIs. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, but he is batting just .231 this season. However, he has gone 10/39 in his last 10 games with two homers.

• The Braves are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 5.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Braves are 8-2
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Atlanta has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.7 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Braves at home. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 9-9 with a 3.51 ERA. Sánchez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.27. In his 25 appearances, he has turned in 14 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout. Sánchez’s most recent outing came on August 22nd, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as they are 7th in runs per game (4.9), and are also near the top of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. At home, they are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. The Phillies have also done a good job of not striking out too much this season.

Over his last seven games, J.T. Realmuto has gone 10/25 with two homers and nine RBIs. For the season, Realmuto is hitting .291. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the Phillies’ top home run hitters this season, and Schwarber’s 82 RBIs are the 2nd most in the MLB right now.

• The Phillies are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 6.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 4-6
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick would be to take the Phillies to come out on top at home vs. the Braves. We are also leaning towards taking the over, as this is projected to be the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the 7th highest home run projection. Charlie Morton is our 2nd ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts, but we still have the Phillies putting together a good day offensively. Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez has the 2nd best hits allowed projection among today’s starters.

The Atlanta Braves are poised for a pivotal four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies, beginning Thursday in Philadelphia. This matchup holds significant implications for the National League East (NL East) division race, with the Braves eyeing an opportunity to close the gap on the division-leading Phillies.

Setting the Stage: A Battle for the NL East

The Phillies currently lead the NL East by five games, but the Braves are steadily chipping away at that advantage. Atlanta recently won two out of three games against the Phillies in Atlanta, and they followed that up with a 5-1 record in their subsequent games against the Washington Nationals and Minnesota Twins. The Braves are riding a wave of momentum, having completed a three-game sweep of the Twins with a commanding 5-1 victory on Wednesday.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, is looking to bounce back after a disappointing 10-0 loss to the Houston Astros, where they managed only three singles in the entire game. The Phillies need a strong showing in this series to solidify their position at the top of the division.

Pitching Matchups: Veteran Experience vs. Emerging Talent

Atlanta Braves:
The Braves will send veteran right-hander Charlie Morton (7-7, 4.24 ERA) to the mound for the series opener. Morton has been in strong form this August, boasting a 1.96 ERA across four starts. Despite a rough outing against the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this month, Morton has otherwise been reliable. His career record against the Phillies is mixed, with a 5-7 record and a 4.81 ERA over 19 starts. As a former Phillie himself, Morton has added motivation to deliver a standout performance.

Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies counter with left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (9-9, 3.51 ERA). Sanchez has shown consistent improvement this season, allowing three runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. However, he has struggled against the Braves, posting a 0-3 record with a 4.66 ERA in four career games (three starts) against Atlanta. Sanchez will need to overcome this history to give the Phillies a fighting chance in the series.

Key Players to Watch

Atlanta Braves:

• Jorge Soler: The powerful slugger continues to be a driving force in the Braves’ lineup. Soler hit a crucial home run in the team’s recent win over Minnesota and will look to continue his hot streak in Philadelphia.
• Marcell Ozuna: With a strong track record against Sanchez (3-for-7 with a double), Ozuna could be a key contributor in the Braves’ offense.
• Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia: Both players are in the midst of cold streaks, with Harris hitting just 6-for-32 in his last nine games and Arcia going 15 games without a multi-hit performance. Their ability to break out of these slumps could be pivotal for the Braves.

Philadelphia Phillies:

• Bryce Harper: Harper has excelled against Morton, hitting .423 in his career against the veteran pitcher. Harper’s performance will be crucial for the Phillies’ offense, especially given the stakes of this series.
• Alec Bohm: Another Phillie with success against Morton, Bohm has hit .444 in his career against the Braves’ starter, making him a key player to watch.
• Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos: Both players have struggled against Morton, with Turner hitting just 3-for-17 and Castellanos 1-for-17. Their ability to turn things around will be critical for the Phillies.

Historical Context and Series Implications

The Braves have dominated the head-to-head matchups this season, winning six out of nine games against the Phillies. However, Philadelphia has a history of upsetting the Braves in the playoffs, having eliminated them in each of the last two postseasons. This adds an extra layer of intrigue to the series, as both teams are well aware of the stakes.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson emphasized the importance of this series, particularly the need to win at home and within the division. For the Braves, a strong performance in Philadelphia could set the stage for another NL East title, while the Phillies are fighting to maintain their lead and avoid a late-season collapse.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Series Ahead

As the Braves and Phillies prepare to face off, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Atlanta has momentum on their side, but the Phillies have home-field advantage and a determination to bounce back from recent struggles. With key matchups on the mound and pivotal players on both sides, this series has all the ingredients for a thrilling battle that could reshape the NL East race.

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