Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions August 31st 2024

At 7:15 PM ET, the Braves and Phillies face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line at -146. The money line odds for a Braves win are sitting at +124, and the over/under line is currently 8 runs.

Max Fried will start for the Braves, and he is facing off against Zack Wheeler. The Braves are 74-61 this season, while the Phillies lead the NL East with a record of 79-56.

Atlanta vs. Philadelphia Key Information

Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA. Fried’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his last outing, Fried picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three runs on four hits. He has made 11 quality starts this year and has a shutout to his name. Per nine innings, Fried is averaging 8.48 strikeouts and 3.1 walks. For the season, he has allowed 10 homers.

Heading into today’s game, the Braves offense is 4th in home runs and is averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 12th in the league.

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Marcell Ozuna comes into the game with a five-game hitting streak and is batting .309 for the season with 37 homers and 98 RBIs. Matt Olson has also been on a tear of late, going 13/40 in his last 10 games with four homers and 14 RBIs. Olson is batting just .236 for the season but does have 25 homers.

Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Braves at home. Wheeler has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with a 2.75 ERA. So far, he has turned in 20 quality starts and is averaging 9.86 strikeouts per nine innings. Wheeler’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.00. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Wheeler has only given up more than two earned runs once in his last eight outings.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the better offensive teams in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. The Phillies are also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, coming in at 10th in the league. As a team, they are batting .258, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, with Schwarber’s 28 homers leading the team and Harper’s 26 homers being the 2nd most on the team. Harper has been on fire of late, going 13/33 in his last nine games. Alec Bohm comes into the game with a team-high 89 RBIs and has a batting average of .290.

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Braves vs. Phillies matchup is to take the Phillies to win. And despite our projections pointing to this being the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day, we are leaning towards taking the over. Zack Wheeler is our 7th ranked starting pitcher in terms of innings pitched, and he also has the 4th best chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.

Orlando Arcia, Braves Bid to Battle Boo Birds in Philly

Each time Orlando Arcia, shortstop for the Atlanta Braves, enters the batter’s box at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia Phillies fans greet him with a barrage of boos. However, following his performance on Friday night, Arcia could be wishing for those boos to persist since they appear to be driving his success.

Arcia’s Night with Multiple Home Runs

In the Braves’ 7-2 win against the Phillies on Friday, Arcia excelled by hitting two home runs. This was his first time hitting multiple home runs in a game as a Brave and only the second time in his career. The last time he hit more than one home run in a game was in 2019 while playing for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The tension between Arcia and Phillies fans began during the NL Division Series last year when he was caught making fun of Bryce Harper for a baserunning error. The constant reminder of that moment is the booing he receives at Citizens Bank Park.

“I like to think that I am a player who goes out there and tries to enjoy his game,” Arcia said. “If they boo me, I still have to go out there and take those at bats, so it doesn’t change much.”
Braves’ Momentum and Pitching Plans

After losing a close game on Thursday in which the Phillies overcame a four-run deficit to win 5-4, the Braves responded strongly on Friday. Arcia’s two home runs, combined with solid pitching from starter Reynaldo Lopez, helped Atlanta trim Philadelphia’s division lead to five games.

The Braves, who have won 10 of their last 13 games, will look to build on that momentum when left-hander Max Fried (8-7, 3.50 ERA) takes the mound on Saturday. Fried, a 30-year-old All-Star, is coming off a win against the Minnesota Twins on Monday, where he struck out seven and allowed three runs (one earned) over five innings.

In his most recent game against the Phillies on August 21, Fried pitched seven innings allowing two runs, however he did not get the decision as the Braves lost 3-2. Throughout 22 games versus Philadelphia, which includes 16 starts, Fried has a record of 4 wins and 5 losses with a 4.05 ERA.

Phillies’ Playoff Push

With 27 games remaining in the regular season, the Phillies are in a strong position to clinch their first NL East title since 2011. They currently hold a five-game lead over the Braves, and a pair of wins over the next two days could create a comfortable cushion between the division’s top two teams.

The Phillies and Braves have become familiar foes in the postseason, meeting in the NLDS the past two seasons, with the Phillies emerging victorious both times in four games.

For veterans like Bryce Harper, the significance of this late-season series is clear.

“That’s a really good team over there,” Harper said of the Braves. “They’re playing real good baseball right now. We’ve got a chance to go and beat them the next two.”

Harper stood out as one of the Phillies’ few positives on Friday, going 3-for-4 with two doubles. The player who has won the NL MVP twice has been a reliable presence in the Phillies’ lineup, as they are currently tied for the fourth-highest team batting average in MLB at .258.

Wheeler is ready to begin his journey to Philadelphia.

The Phillies aim to recover on Saturday with Zack Wheeler (12-6, 2.74 ERA) pitching. The experienced pitcher, who is from Georgia, is coming from two starts in a row in which he only allowed two runs in six innings. Wheeler has been successful against the Braves, with a 12-8 record and 3.07 ERA in 29 career starts facing them.

Outlook on Series

As the Braves and Phillies keep competing for dominance in the NL East, the weekend series holds significant importance. Arcia is flourishing despite receiving negative reactions from Philadelphia fans, while the Phillies are counting on their experienced pitcher Wheeler to compete in what is expected to be a fiercely contested game on Saturday.