Philadelphia Phillies vs Chi. Cubs Picks and Predictions September 25th 2024

There appears to be a chance for light rain in Philadelphia on Wednesday, where the Phillies and Cubs will face off at Citizens Bank Park. The game gets started at 6:05 PM ET, and MARQ will be televising it.

Chicago is 81-77 and in 2nd place in the NL Central, while the Phillies are 93-65 and in 1st place in the NL East. Philadelphia is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -192 compared to the Cubs at +160. The over/under line is currently 8 runs, and the Phillies will be facing off against the Cubs’ Javier Assad.

Chicago vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Cubs at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Wednesday, September 25th
• Betting Odds PHI -192 | CHC +160 O/U 8

The Cubs Can Win If…

Right-hander Javier Assad gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 7-5 with an ERA of 3.34. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .243 this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.37. In his last outing, Assad finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without taking the loss. Assad has allowed at least one homer in three straight starts.

Chicago’s offense has been very good on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per contest, which is 12th in the league. The Cubs have the 12th best team batting average in the league at .243 and are 15th in home runs.

Over the team’s last seven games, Nico Hoerner has been on fire, going 11/25. For the season, he is batting .272 and has five homers. Ian Happ has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 6/24 with two homers in his last seven games. Happ leads the Cubs with 86 RBIs and is tied with Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki for the team lead in homers.

• The Cubs are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cubs are 6-4
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Chicago has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 7.1 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Through 30 starts, Cristopher Sánchez has a record of 11-9 and an ERA of 3.25. This year, he has pitched much better at home, coming in with a record of 7-3 and an ERA of 2.23. Sánchez has made 30 appearances this year and has a WHIP of 1.24. Opponents are batting .251 off the left-hander this year. Sánchez has turned in 17 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout. In his last outing, he got the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on three homers. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up a homer.

As a team, the Phillies are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per game. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .258. Not only are they one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, but they also do a good job of avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 13th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been a great 1-2 punch for the Phillies this season. Schwarber comes into the game with a team-high 38 homers, while Harper is right behind him with 30. Harper also has a team-high 87 RBIs, and Schwarber is 11th in the league in RBIs. Schwarber has three homers in his last eight games, batting .257 over that stretch, while Nick Castellanos has gone 11/29 in his last eight games.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 4-4-2 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 3-7
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

Phillies’ Recent Performance: Mixed Results in the Series

Philadelphia’s journey through this series has been a roller-coaster ride. On Monday, they clinched their first National League East title in 13 years with a 6-2 victory over the Cubs. However, Tuesday’s game didn’t go as planned, as the Phillies were overwhelmed 10-4 despite home runs from sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

“We’ve just got to shake that one off and focus on what’s next,” Schwarber said after Tuesday’s loss. “It’s all about maintaining our focus in these last few games.”

With just four games remaining in the regular season, the Phillies (93-65) are battling the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-64) for the top seed in the National League playoffs. They trail the Dodgers by half a game but hold the tiebreaker advantage, adding urgency to every remaining matchup.

Cristopher Sanchez’s Home Dominance

Starting for the Phillies is left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (11-9, 3.25 ERA), who has been in excellent form. In four September starts, Sanchez has gone 2-0 with a stellar 1.80 ERA. However, his last outing against the New York Mets saw him issue a career-high five walks, raising concerns about his control despite allowing just two runs in five innings.

A significant factor in Sanchez’s success this season has been his dominance at Citizens Bank Park. He boasts a 2.05 ERA in home games, in stark contrast to his struggles on the road (5.02 ERA). Phillies fans will be hoping that home-field advantage plays a role, especially after Sanchez’s rough outing at Wrigley Field earlier this season. On the Fourth of July, he allowed seven runs in four-plus innings during a 10-2 loss to the Cubs—his only career start against Chicago.

Javier Assad Takes the Mound for the Cubs

The Cubs counter with right-hander Javier Assad (7-5, 3.34 ERA), who has also had a breakout season. Assad has handled increased responsibility well, earning the praise of Cubs manager Craig Counsell, who said, “Javy’s had a really good season. He’s taken on more responsibility and handled it like a pro.”

Like Sanchez, Assad has been more effective at home (2.47 ERA) than on the road (4.17 ERA). But Assad has found success against the Phillies, holding them scoreless across two career appearances, including one start. He’ll look to replicate that performance as the Cubs try to finish the season strong.

Cubs’ Offensive Surge in Game 2

Chicago (81-77) enters the series finale with confidence after a dominant offensive showing on Tuesday, where they outhit the Phillies 15-7. Cody Bellinger led the way with a 3-for-5 performance, driving in four runs. Seiya Suzuki contributed two RBIs, and Nico Hoerner added three hits in a well-rounded effort.

“We had guys on base all night,” Counsell said. “It was a great offensive performance, and we’ll look to carry that into tomorrow.”

However, the Cubs could be shorthanded in Wednesday’s game, as both Michael Busch and Suzuki left Tuesday’s contest with injuries. Busch was hit by a pitch in the second inning and left with a right arm injury, while Suzuki sprained his right ankle in the sixth inning. Their availability remains uncertain, potentially affecting Chicago’s lineup.

Bryce Harper Heating Up for Philadelphia

For the Phillies, Bryce Harper’s bat is heating up at the perfect time. Harper hit his 30th home run of the season on Tuesday, marking his second consecutive multi-hit game. Phillies manager Rob Thomson praised Harper’s recent surge, noting, “It’s great to see him swinging the bat well right now.”

Adding to the team’s offensive firepower is Austin Hays, who returned to the lineup after missing more than three weeks due to a kidney infection. Hays went 1-for-4 in his return and is expected to be a key contributor down the stretch, with Schwarber adding, “I feel like that guy’s going to be a big piece of what we’re doing as we get ready for the playoffs.”

Playoff Implications for the Phillies

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Philadelphia. While they have already secured the NL East title, seeding in the playoffs remains on the line. With four games left in their regular season (one fewer than the Dodgers), every win is crucial in their quest to finish as the top seed in the National League.

The Phillies hold the tiebreaker against Los Angeles, meaning if both teams finish with identical records, Philadelphia would claim the higher seed. This adds even more importance to the final game of the series against the Cubs and their upcoming final series.

Key Matchup: Sanchez vs. Cubs’ Offense

The game will likely come down to the performance of Cristopher Sanchez and how well he can handle the Cubs’ lineup, which has found success at the plate in recent games. With Sanchez’s home-field dominance, the Phillies have a solid chance to bounce back from Tuesday’s loss.

On the other side, the Cubs’ offense will be looking to replicate their success from Game 2, with players like Bellinger and Hoerner leading the charge. If Chicago can keep up the offensive pressure, they could make it difficult for Sanchez to settle into his usual rhythm.

What’s at Stake for Chicago?

For the Cubs, finishing the season on a positive note is crucial, even if they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention. This game presents an opportunity to build momentum for next year while evaluating younger talent in the lineup. The absence of key players like Suzuki and Busch, if confirmed, could be a challenge, but the Cubs will look to their depth to compete against a formidable Phillies squad.

Final Thoughts

As the Phillies and Cubs prepare to face off in the series finale, all eyes will be on Cristopher Sanchez’s performance and whether Philadelphia can keep their winning streak alive. With playoff implications on the line for the Phillies and a chance for the Cubs to play spoiler, this game promises to be an exciting showdown.

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over as the Cubs and Phillies are our highest projected game in terms of runs scored. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Phillies to come out on top. Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sánchez has the 3rd best chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.