Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions August 13th 2024

‘We’ve just got to be better’: Phillies aim to beat Marlins in opener

At 6:40 PM ET, the Marlins and Phillies face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and the Phillies are heavily favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -180 compared to the Marlins at +151. The over/under line is currently 9 runs.

BSFL will be televising this Marlins and Phillies matchup, and on the season, the Phillies are 69-49, while the Marlins are 44-75. Miami is starting Valente Bellozo, while the Phillies are sending Taijuan Walker to the mound.

Miami vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Marlins at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Tuesday, August 13th
• Betting Odds PHI -180 | MIA +151 O/U 9

The Marlins Can Win If…

Valente Bellozo is making his third start of the season today for the Marlins, and it will be his first road start of the year. Bellozo has been solid in his first two outings, picking up a win in his last start vs. the Reds, where he went 5 2/3 innings and struck out 4. In his first start of the year, he went 5 innings and gave up 2 earned runs in a no-decision vs. the Braves.

Over his last six games, Jake Burger has been on fire, hitting five home runs and batting .417. For the season, he is batting .251 with a team-high 53 RBIs and 22 homers, which is 11th in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also near the top of the Marlins’ home run leaderboard, as he has 14 homers this season and is batting .239.

As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs per game at 3.7. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. Overall, they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

• The Marlins are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Marlins are 6-4
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Miami has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Taijuan Walker will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Diamondbacks, where he took the loss and gave up four earned runs in just four innings of work. In that start, he gave up three home runs. Overall, Walker has a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 5.60. Looking at his home/away splits, he has an ERA of 5.8 at home compared to 5.57 on the road. Walker has made 10 starts this year and has only turned in two quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.3 strikeouts and 3.57 walks.

The Phillies come into today’s game as one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .255, which is 6th in the league, and are also among the league leaders in home runs and on-base percentage.

Kyle Schwarber has been on a tear of late, hitting .359 over his last 10 games with five homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .257 with 27 home runs, which is 7th in the league. Alec Bohm comes into the game with a 13-game hitting streak and is batting .297 for the season with 12 homers and a team-high 80 RBIs.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 4-6
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Philadelphia has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean would be to take the over, as this is projected to be the 4th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Marlins to pick up the win. Miami’s offense is our 5th highest-rated run-scoring team in the league today, and Valente Bellozo has the 8th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

The Philadelphia Phillies are facing a pivotal moment in their season as they prepare to host the Miami Marlins in the opener of a two-game series. With a three-game losing streak and a four-game home skid hanging over them, the Phillies are in desperate need of a turnaround. The stakes are high, and the team knows that only by stepping up their performance can they get back on track and solidify their standing in the National League East.

Phillies’ Recent Struggles

The Phillies have been in a rough patch, dropping 10 of their last 14 games. Their recent performance has been marred by a porous defense and inconsistent pitching, allowing a staggering 23 runs in their last two outings alone. This stretch has exposed significant vulnerabilities, particularly in their ability to contain opposing offenses.

Returning to Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies are under pressure to deliver a strong performance and break their home losing streak. The upcoming series against the Marlins, followed by a four-game set with the Washington Nationals, presents a crucial opportunity to regain momentum.

Leadership and Urgency

Bryce Harper, one of the Phillies’ most prominent leaders, has not shied away from addressing the team’s struggles. Following a disappointing 12-5 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Harper acknowledged that the Phillies are not playing at the level required to succeed. “Not our best, obviously,” Harper remarked, emphasizing the need for the team to regroup and focus on the basics as they return home. His words resonate with the sense of urgency that now permeates the clubhouse.

Harper’s leadership will be essential as the Phillies look to overcome their recent setbacks. He stressed that despite facing a lower-ranked team like the Marlins, the Phillies cannot afford to take any opponent lightly. “We’ve just got to be better, both sides of the ball,” Harper said, signaling the need for improvement in both offense and defense.

Key Performers and Challenges

Amidst the team’s struggles, Alec Bohm has been a bright spot. Bohm extended his hitting streak to 13 games in the loss to Arizona, going 18-for-58 with nine RBIs and seven runs during that span. His consistency at the plate has been crucial, offering a reliable source of offense for a team that has otherwise been inconsistent.

However, not all Phillies have found their rhythm. Bryson Stott is enduring a rough stretch, hitting just 3-for-31 in August. Brandon Marsh also struggled until breaking out of an 0-for-20 slump with an RBI single in the seventh inning of Sunday’s game. The Phillies will need more from these players if they hope to turn their fortunes around.

Pitching Concerns and Expectations

The Phillies will turn to right-hander Taijuan Walker to start the series opener against the Marlins. Walker, who is returning from the injured list after a finger injury, has been a reliable arm when healthy. He boasts a strong career record against the Marlins, going 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts) against them.

Walker’s performance will be pivotal for the Phillies. They need a strong outing to set the tone for the series and alleviate some of the pressure on their bullpen, which has been heavily taxed during this losing stretch.

Marlins’ Key Threats

The Miami Marlins, despite being a lower-ranked team, pose a significant threat to the Phillies. Jake Burger has been on a power surge, homering in three straight games and totaling 12 home runs since the All-Star break. Burger’s confidence and recent form make him a dangerous hitter that the Phillies must carefully navigate.

In addition to Burger, Jesus Sanchez has also been productive, hitting a home run and driving in two runs in Miami’s recent 7-6 win over the San Diego Padres. The Marlins have won three of the seven meetings against the Phillies this season, proving they are capable of challenging their division rivals.

Outlook for the Series

The Phillies are at a critical juncture. The upcoming series against the Marlins is more than just another set of games; it is an opportunity for the team to prove they can overcome adversity and rise to the challenge. The pressure is on, and the team knows it must elevate its performance on both sides of the ball.

Harper’s leadership, Bohm’s consistency, and Walker’s return to the mound will be key factors in determining whether the Phillies can snap their losing streak and build momentum for the crucial games ahead. With the season hanging in the balance, the Phillies must show they have what it takes to compete at the highest level.

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