Philadelphia Phillies vs Ny Mets Picks and Predictions October 6th 2024

First pitch for Sunday’s matchup between the Mets and Phillies is set for 4:08 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. The Phillies are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154, while the money line odds for the Mets are at +131. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

This NL East matchup features Luis Severino for the Mets and Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies. New York is 89-73 overall, while the Phillies are 95-67 and in 1st place in the NL East. The Mets are 2nd in the division. FS1 will be televising this game.

New York vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Sunday, October 6th
• Betting Odds PHI -154 | NYM +131 O/U 7.5

The Mets Can Win If…

As the Mets prepare for game two of their series against the Phillies, they hold a 1-0 lead and are on the road. New York finished the regular season with a 43-38 road record, compared to 46-35 at home. As road underdogs, they went 25-23 this year.

New York’s run line record is 85-81, including 47-38 on the road. They’ve covered the run line in two straight road games. The Mets’ over/under record is 84-77, and 67.3% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 11-7 and an ERA of 3.91. So far, he has made 31 starts and has one complete game shutout. Looking at his overall numbers, Severino has made 32 appearances and has a WHIP of 1.24. In his last outing, he gave up three earned runs in six innings of work and got the win. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Opponents are batting .232 off Severino this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.96 strikeouts and 2.97 walks.

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.7 runs per game. This is a number that they have been able to maintain both at home and on the road. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams, and they have a team batting average of .246.

Francisco Lindor has been the Mets’ top run producer this season, as he has 91 RBIs to go along with 33 homers. Pete Alonso is right behind him with 34 homers and 88 RBIs. Lindor has gone 6/25 in his last seven games, including two homers.

• The Mets are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 5-5
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

As the Phillies prepare for game two of their series against the Mets, they find themselves needing a win to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole. Philadelphia posted a 95-67 regular season record, including a strong 54-27 mark at home and a 41-40 record on the road. As favorites, they went 82-50, while finishing 13-18 as underdogs.

Philadelphia’s games have averaged 9 runs this season, while today’s over/under line sits at 7.5 runs. Their over/under record is 79-75, and they’ve seen the over hit in six straight games. The Phillies’ run line record is 78-85 overall.

Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez finished with a no-decision in his last outing, going 4 2/3 innings vs. the Cubs. In that outing, he gave up three earned runs, four hits, and one homer. Before that, he had turned in a quality start in two straight outings. Sánchez has a record of 11-9 this season and an ERA of 3.32. Opposing batters are hitting .250 off the left-hander this season. Sánchez has made 31 starts, and his WHIP for the season is 1.24.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the top offensive teams in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .257, which is the 4th best mark in the MLB. They have also been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, as their 198 homers are 7th in the league. The Phillies have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per game.

Kyle Schwarber has had a strong season for the Phillies, hitting a team-high 38 home runs and driving in 104 runs, which is also the best mark on the team. However, he is hitting just .248 this season and has gone 5/23 in his last six games. Bryce Harper is batting .285 for the season and has 30 homers and 87 RBIs. Over his last six games, Harper has gone 7/17.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 8-1-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 3-7
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

It has already been a momentous week for Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, and it’s about to get even more significant. The 27-year-old left-hander, fresh off welcoming his first child, will take the mound for the Phillies in Game 2 of their National League Division Series (NLDS) against the New York Mets on Sunday afternoon. The Phillies will be aiming to even the best-of-five series at one game apiece after a tough 6-2 loss in Game 1.

Sanchez, who has enjoyed a breakout season, also became a father six days ago when his wife, Kaimary, gave birth to their son, Cristopher Jr. Amidst this life-changing event, Sanchez remains focused on the task at hand, hoping to give his team a boost in this critical game.

Home-Field Advantage for Sanchez

The decision to start Sanchez in Game 2 was influenced by his impressive home record this season. Sanchez pitched to a sparkling 2.21 ERA in 17 starts at Citizens Bank Park, compared to a 5.02 ERA in 14 road games. The comfort of pitching at home has made a significant difference for Sanchez, and the Phillies are banking on that edge as they seek to stay competitive in the series.

Sanchez had a successful year overall, finishing the regular season with an 11-9 record and a 3.32 ERA, earning his first All-Star selection. He also performed well against the Mets in recent weeks, defeating them 12-2 on September 20, allowing just two runs over five innings despite issuing a season-high five walks. On September 15, Sanchez went seven innings against New York, allowing just one run on six hits in a no-decision as the Phillies won 2-1.

In his career, Sanchez has posted a 3.62 ERA in nine appearances (six starts) against the Mets, and the Phillies will look for him to build on that history as he tries to even the series.

Mets Counter with Luis Severino

Opposing Sanchez on the mound for the Mets will be veteran right-hander Luis Severino, who has been a solid addition to New York’s rotation after spending eight years with the Yankees. Severino brings postseason experience and a history of success against the Phillies, making him a formidable opponent.

Severino, who went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA this year, recently helped the Mets advance in the playoffs by leading them to a win in the Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers. In that game, he pitched six innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits as the Mets claimed an 8-4 victory.

Severino has also faced the Phillies twice in recent weeks, delivering steady performances each time. On September 19, he allowed three runs on five hits over six innings in a 10-6 Mets win. He also pitched six innings of three-run ball in a no-decision on September 14, a game Philadelphia ultimately won 6-4. Overall, Severino is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies.

Heading into Game 2, Severino knows the challenge he faces, especially in the loud, raucous atmosphere of Citizens Bank Park. “I’m just going to focus on doing my job and trying to make my pitches,” Severino said. He acknowledged the danger of the Phillies’ power hitters—Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner—who are all capable of changing the game with one swing.

Game 1 Recap: Mets’ Late Surge Sinks Phillies

Game 1 saw the Phillies get off to a strong start behind ace Zack Wheeler, who was masterful, allowing just one hit over seven shutout innings. Wheeler gave the Phillies every chance to take the opener, but the bullpen struggled mightily in the late innings.

The Mets scored five runs in the eighth inning and added another in the ninth, completing a stunning comeback. Phillies manager Rob Thomson expressed his frustration, describing the bullpen collapse as “stunning” given the elite arms he deployed. The Mets, however, showed patience and resilience, putting together strong at-bats against some of the best relievers in baseball.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza was proud of his team’s effort, crediting “really good at-bats against some elite arms.” One of the key moments came from outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who delivered an RBI single against Matt Strahm in the eighth inning to break a 1-1 tie and give the Mets the lead. The Mets’ comeback marked their third late-inning victory in the past week, a testament to the team’s resilience.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Cristopher Sanchez vs. Mets Offense

Sanchez will need to navigate a Mets lineup that has shown a knack for late-game heroics, as demonstrated in Game 1. With his impressive home record and recent success against New York, Sanchez will aim to keep the Mets off-balance and limit scoring opportunities. His ability to manage the game and avoid giving up big innings will be crucial.

2. Luis Severino vs. Phillies Power Hitters

Luis Severino faces a tough task in dealing with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, all capable of turning the tide with a single swing. Severino’s strategy will be to execute his pitches and avoid the long ball, especially against the middle of the Phillies’ order. If he can manage the big bats, the Mets will have a strong chance of taking a commanding 2-0 series lead.

3. Phillies’ Bullpen Response

After allowing six runs in the final two innings of Game 1, the Phillies’ bullpen will be looking to bounce back. Manager Rob Thomson has a talented group of relievers, and a strong outing from them will be necessary to support Sanchez and protect any lead they might build. The Mets have shown they are capable of late rallies, and the Phillies’ bullpen will need to be sharper to prevent another comeback.

Game 2 Expectations and Prediction

Game 2 is pivotal for both teams, with the Phillies aiming to avoid a 2-0 hole and the Mets hoping to take a commanding series lead. Cristopher Sanchez, riding the wave of new fatherhood and pitching at his best at home, has the potential to put the Phillies in a good position. However, he must remain cautious against a Mets lineup that has proven dangerous in the late innings.

On the other side, Luis Severino brings experience and a track record of success against Philadelphia, making this an intriguing pitching matchup. Severino will need to stay composed in the hostile environment of Citizens Bank Park and execute his game plan against the Phillies’ potent lineup.

Ultimately, the game could come down to which starter can outduel the other and which bullpen steps up when it matters most. If Sanchez can continue his strong home performances and the Phillies bullpen can recover from its Game 1 collapse, Philadelphia should be able to even the series. However, if the Mets continue to find ways to rally late and Severino delivers a quality start, New York could head back home with a commanding 2-0 lead.

Expect a closely contested matchup with high stakes, as both teams are determined to swing the momentum in their favor. With Cristopher Sanchez motivated by his recent personal milestone and his strong home numbers, the Phillies have a slight edge to bounce back and level the series.

The Lean

Look for the Phillies to come out on top as they host the Mets today, and we are leaning towards taking them on the money line. We have this as the lowest projected scoring game of the day, and our lean would be towards the under. Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez is our projected strikeout leader in this one.