Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 11th 2024

Phillies in position to sweep visiting Rays

The Philadelphia Phillies have a veteran roster filled with All-Stars, but lately, it’s been rookies and role players who have carried the team to victories.

The Phillies head into this interleague matchup vs. the Rays looking to make it three straight, as they are 87-58 and sit atop the NL East. Tampa Bay is 4th in the AL East with a record of 71-74 and they will be trying to snap a two-game losing streak. The money line odds have the Phillies at -204 compared to the Rays at +172. This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 80’s.

First pitch for this one is set for 6:40 PM ET, and BSSUN will be carrying the game on TV. Wednesday’s pitching matchup has Shane Baz for the Rays and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Wednesday, September 11th
• Betting Odds PHI -204 | TB +172 O/U 7.5

The Rays Can Win If…

Right-hander Shane Baz gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 10 starts this season and has a record of 2-3 with a 3.27 ERA. Baz’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.24. In his last outing, Baz took the loss, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on three hits. One of the hits he allowed was a home run. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came on the road. Baz has made five quality starts this season.

Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter this season, as he is batting .280 and has a team-high 65 RBIs. Diaz is also on a good stretch of games, as he has gone 10/25 in his last six games, including two home runs. Jonny DeLuca has also been swinging the bat well for Tampa Bay, going 11/31 in his last eight games.

For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. As a team, they are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a collective batting average of just .231. Currently, their team OPS of .674 is 20th in the league.

• The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 4-4-2 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Zack Wheeler has been pitching well for the Phillies, as he has a record of 14-6 and an ERA of 2.59. In his 28 starts, Wheeler has turned in 22 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. Against the Marlins, he gave up just two hits and issued one walk. Wheeler has made 15 starts at home, going 9-3 with a 2.53 ERA. On the road, he is 5-3 with a 3.66 ERA. Wheeler’s ERA for the month of September is 1.29.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, as they are 8th in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the league. Philadelphia also has the 3rd best OPS in the league and have the 2nd best collective on-base percentage in the MLB.

Kyle Schwarber has been on a tear of late, going 14/31 (.452) with seven homers over his last eight games. This has helped him move into the team lead in home runs (35) and RBIs (95). For the season, he is batting just .251, but his on-base percentage of .372 is 3rd best on the team. Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper are also having strong seasons, with Harper batting .291 and Bohm at .290.

• The Phillies are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 6.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 6-4
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 6.9 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as we have this as the 3rd lowest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have the Phillies coming out on top. Zack Wheeler is our 3rd ranked starting pitcher of the day in terms of strikeouts, and he also has the 2nd best chance to pick up a win.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the verge of completing a three-game sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays, and it’s not just the stars leading the charge. While the Phillies boast a veteran roster filled with All-Star talent, their recent surge has been fueled by rookies and role players stepping up in crucial moments.

As the Phillies (87-58) gear up for the series finale on Wednesday, they have already claimed two thrilling victories, setting them up for a potential sweep.

Rookies Shine in Back-to-Back Wins

In Monday’s opener, it was Kody Clemens who sealed the game with a dramatic walk-off single in the ninth inning, leading to a 2-1 victory. The young players were in the spotlight again on Tuesday when Clemens delivered an eighth-inning double, setting the stage for Cal Stevenson’s two-run double that broke a 4-4 tie. Buddy Kennedy, another recent addition to the roster, played a key role in both rallies on Monday and Tuesday.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson highlighted the importance of these contributions: “It’s been great. It’s been that way for the last couple of years. Guys come up because of injury or for whatever reason and they come through. I think it’s a testament to our clubhouse and how our veteran guys make the younger guys feel comfortable and needed. They relax and just be themselves.”

The performances of Clemens, Stevenson, and Kennedy underscore the team’s depth and the ability to rely on more than just their star players during critical moments.

Benches Clear After Phillies’ Five-Run Rally

Tuesday’s game took an intense turn during the Phillies’ five-run rally in the eighth inning. Rays reliever Edwin Uceta hit Nick Castellanos with a 96 mph sinker, leading to a benches-clearing moment and Uceta’s immediate ejection.

While tensions flared briefly, Thomson downplayed the incident, saying, “Boys will be boys.” Rays manager Kevin Cash added that “ideally” his team would “move on and just get off the field” once the game seemed out of reach.

Wheeler on the Mound for Sweep Opportunity

The Phillies are in a strong position to complete the sweep with ace Zack Wheeler (14-6, 2.59 ERA) taking the mound on Wednesday. Wheeler has been dominant since August, going 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA. In his last outing, he gave up just one run over six innings in a 16-2 rout of the Miami Marlins.

“I’m just trying to go out there and put up zeros and hope for the best. That’s all I can do,” Wheeler said.

However, Wheeler has struggled historically against the Rays, going 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three career starts, his last appearance coming in August 2021. But with the team’s current momentum and home-field advantage, Wheeler is poised to improve his record and guide the Phillies to victory.

Injury Concerns for Kyle Schwarber

Despite the team’s success, the Phillies may have to play Wednesday’s game without slugger Kyle Schwarber. The lefty exited Tuesday’s game after experiencing elbow discomfort from an awkward slide, and his availability is listed as day-to-day. This could impact the Phillies’ offense, as Schwarber’s power and leadership are key elements of the lineup.

Rays Look to Shane Baz to Avoid the Sweep

The Rays (71-74) have dropped four of their last six games and will be relying on 25-year-old right-hander Shane Baz (2-3, 3.27 ERA) to steady the ship and prevent a sweep. Baz has been solid throughout the season, allowing three runs or fewer in nine of his ten starts. In his last outing, he pitched six strong innings, giving up only two runs (one earned) in a 2-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, one of the top teams in the league.

“I definitely won’t complain about what Shane Baz did tonight. An outstanding effort on his part,” Cash said after Baz’s hard-luck loss to Baltimore.

Baz will need to be at his best as he faces a formidable Phillies lineup, including Trea Turner, who belted two two-run homers on Tuesday, and Bryce Harper, who collected three doubles and a single in a 7-5 win. Baz will also face the challenge of neutralizing the roaring crowd at Citizens Bank Park, which has provided a distinct advantage for the Phillies.

Philadelphia’s Push Toward Postseason Success

With the Phillies now just one win away from reaching 30 games over .500 for the first time this season, the team is surging at the right time. They have won eight of their last ten games, and if their recent form is any indication, they have the depth and talent to continue their winning streak into the postseason.

Rookie Cal Stevenson captured the energy of the moment, saying, “I’ve never played in an atmosphere like that. It’s not even close.” The electric home crowd could play a key role as the Phillies look to carry their momentum through September.

Conclusion

The Phillies are primed for a sweep of the Rays, with a perfect blend of veteran leadership, rookie contributions, and strong pitching. With Zack Wheeler on the mound and a home crowd behind them, Philadelphia has every reason to be confident heading into Wednesday’s game. Meanwhile, the Rays will lean on Shane Baz in hopes of staving off the sweep and turning their recent struggles around.

The Best Expert MLB Picks and Odds