Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions September 24th 2024

Brewers back on gas pedal ahead of visit to Pirates

The Pirates host the Brewers today at PNC Park in Pittsburgh and will be looking to move above .500 for the season. However, they come into the game as +120 underdogs on the money line. On the other side, the Brewers are 1st in the NL Central with a record of 89-67.

SN PT will be televising today’s game, and the forecast from Pittsburgh calls for light rain and temperatures in the low 70s. Tuesday’s starting pitching matchup features Tobias Myers for the Brewers and Bailey Falter for the Pirates.

Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

• Teams: Brewers at Pirates
• Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
• Date: Tuesday, September 24th
• Betting Odds MIL -140 | PIT +120 O/U 8

The Brewers Can Win If…

Milwaukee is sending right-hander Tobias Myers to the mound today vs. the Pirates. He has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 8-6. Myers’ ERA for the season is 3.05, along with a WHIP of 1.19. In his 25 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts. Myers’ most recent outing came on September 19th, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. In his last three outings, he has given up a total of four home runs.

William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers, going 6/13 in his last four games with a home run. For the season, he is batting .285 and is 2nd on the team with 92 RBIs. Willy Adames has been a big power threat for the Brewers this season, as his 32 home runs are 9th in the league and leads the Brewers. He also comes into the game 4th in the league with 110 RBIs.

As a team, the Brewers are 5th in the league in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 8th in team batting average and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league.

• The Brewers are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Brewers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Milwaukee has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

The Pirates Can Win If…

Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates today and is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cardinals. In that start, he took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Looking back further, Falter had put together a nice streak of starts, as he had picked up the win in three straight outings. Falter’s record for the season is 8-8, and he has an ERA of 4.15 to go along with a WHIP of 1.27. Opposing batters are hitting .251 off the left-hander this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.16 strikeouts and 2.75 walks.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 23rd in the MLB. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.9 runs per game. The Pirates have been near the bottom of the league in home runs this season and are also in the bottom half of the league in team batting average and on-base percentage.

Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz have been the Pirates’ top power hitters this season, with Reynolds leading the team with 22 homers and Cruz right behind him with 21. Reynolds also has a team-high 85 RBIs, while Cruz has 76. Both players have been swinging the bat well of late, with Reynolds going 5/17 in his last six games, and Cruz is 4/14 in his last five games.

• The Pirates are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the day, and for a money-line pick, we are leaning toward the Brewers to come out on top. Milwaukee has the 2nd highest team run scored projection and 4th highest home run projection. Looking at today’s starters, Tobias Myers is 10th in our projections in starting pitcher strikeouts, while Bailey Falter is 3rd worst.

The Milwaukee Brewers (89-67) are back on track after one of the most dramatic comeback victories in franchise history. On Sunday, the Brewers overcame an 8-0 deficit to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-9, avoiding a four-game sweep. This comeback marked their largest in 20 years, second only to a nine-run rally against the Cincinnati Reds in April 2004. With the postseason looming, Milwaukee is keen to keep the pressure on as they open a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (73-83) on Tuesday evening.

Brewers Show Resilience After Clinching NL Central

The Brewers recently clinched the National League Central title but hit a rough patch, losing three straight to Arizona before Sunday’s dramatic victory. Despite trailing 8-0 by the third inning, the Brewers clawed their way back, showing the type of fight that will be crucial come October.

“We’re not good enough to take our foot off the gas,” said Brewers manager Pat Murphy after the game, stressing the importance of staying sharp after securing the division. First baseman Rhys Hoskins, who drove in three runs during the comeback, echoed that sentiment, noting how the team refused to “roll over” even after a rough stretch. “That’s a good team over there, and they made it tough for us, but we didn’t give in.”

This victory not only prevented a sweep but also maintained the Brewers’ record as the only MLB team that hasn’t lost four straight games this season. Now, as they head to Pittsburgh, Milwaukee will look to extend their momentum and sharpen their focus ahead of the playoffs.

Pitching Matchups: Myers vs. Falter

Milwaukee will turn to right-hander Tobias Myers (8-6, 3.05 ERA) to start the series opener. Myers has been a reliable arm for the Brewers but enters this game after a pair of mixed outings against the Diamondbacks. In his first start against Arizona on September 14, he allowed four runs over six innings in a 15-8 Brewers victory. However, he struggled in the rematch on September 19, allowing three runs (one earned) in four innings during a 5-1 loss.

Myers has already faced Pittsburgh twice this season, delivering strong performances in both starts. He made his major league debut against the Pirates on April 23, allowing just one run over five innings in a 2-1 loss. His second outing against them on July 10 was a standout performance, where he pitched eight scoreless innings, helping the Brewers to a commanding 9-0 win.

On the other side, the Pirates will send left-hander Bailey Falter (8-8, 4.15 ERA) to the mound. Falter has been solid in September, winning his first two starts before a tough 3-1 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals last Tuesday. Despite some mechanical issues in his last outing, Falter remains a formidable opponent, particularly against Milwaukee. In his three career appearances (two starts) against the Brewers, he boasts a 1-0 record with an impressive 1.23 ERA.

Falter and Myers previously faced off on April 23, with Falter earning the win after allowing just one run over seven strong innings. The Brewers will need to bring their best to beat him this time around.

Pirates Seek to Finish Season Strong

Though the Pirates have been eliminated from postseason contention, they aren’t going down without a fight. Pittsburgh avoided a sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds with a 2-0 victory on Sunday, and they’ll be looking to play spoiler as they host Milwaukee.

While the Pirates’ season hasn’t lived up to expectations, their ability to pull off wins against playoff-caliber teams has been a bright spot. In fact, Pittsburgh has competed well against the Brewers this season, and they’ll aim to replicate that success in this upcoming series.

Key Storylines to Watch

1. Brewers’ Post-Clinching Form: After clinching the NL Central, the Brewers lost three straight before their dramatic win on Sunday. Will they show more consistency in this series, or will complacency set in again?
2. Tobias Myers’ Road to Redemption: Myers has shown flashes of brilliance but has also struggled with consistency in recent starts. Can he find his best form against a Pirates lineup that he’s dominated in the past?
3. Bailey Falter’s Mastery Over Milwaukee: Falter has historically performed well against the Brewers. Will he continue to stifle Milwaukee’s offense, or can the Brewers break through this time?
4. Building Momentum for October: With the playoffs just around the corner, the Brewers are focused on regaining their winning edge. How they perform in this series will be crucial as they aim to enter the postseason firing on all cylinders.

Conclusion: Brewers Must Keep Their Foot on the Gas

Milwaukee’s comeback win against Arizona sent a clear message: this team doesn’t quit, even when the odds are stacked against them. However, the Brewers need to maintain that intensity throughout the remainder of the regular season. Their upcoming series against the Pirates provides an opportunity to build momentum and work out any remaining kinks before the playoffs.

With Tobias Myers on the mound and a resilient lineup backing him, Milwaukee has a strong chance to get off to a good start in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Pirates, led by Bailey Falter, will look to spoil the Brewers’ plans and end their season on a high note.

Fans can expect a competitive series as both teams have plenty to prove.

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