Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions August 26th 2024

Pirates, Cubs hope for big hits in series opener

Wednesday’s matchup between the Cubs and Pirates is set to get started at 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The money line odds have the Pirates favored at -166, while the Cubs are sitting at +141. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Chicago comes in with a record of 67-66 and has won two straight, while the Pirates are 62-70 overall and have lost two in a row. Kyle Hendricks is starting for the Cubs, and he is facing off against Paul Skenes. Pittsburgh is 5th in the NL Central, while the Cubs are in 2nd place.

Chicago vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

• Teams: Cubs at Pirates
• Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds PIT -166 | CHC +141 O/U 8

The Cubs Can Win If…

Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Pirates on the road. This year, he has made 18 starts and has a record of 3-10 with a 6.33 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Hendricks has a WHIP of 1.45 and has allowed a total of 19 home runs. In his last outing, the right-hander finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had turned in three straight quality starts. So far, he has three quality starts this year.

Over his last nine games, Seiya Suzuki has gone 15/37 with three homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .276 with 19 home runs, which is the 2nd most on the team. Ian Happ comes into the game with a three-game hitting streak and is the Cubs’ leader in homers (23) and RBIs (72). However, he is batting just .237 for the season.

As a team, the Cubs are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game. Overall, their batting average of .238 is 15th in the league, and they are also 15th in home runs.

• The Cubs are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 9.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cubs are 6-4
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Chicago has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 6.9 runs per game on offense

The Pirates Can Win If…

Pittsburgh starter Paul Skenes has been pitching well this year, as he comes into the game with a record of 8-2 and an ERA of 2.16. Skenes has made 17 starts this year and has turned in 13 quality starts. In his last outing, he didn’t give up a run, picking up the win after going six innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Skenes has given up two earned runs in each of those starts. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 2.75 compared to 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA on the road.

Oneil Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Pirates of late, going 9/19 in his last five games. However, he has yet to hit a home run during that stretch. Bryan Reynolds and Bryan De La Cruz are the Pirates’ top two home run hitters, with Reynolds batting .279 for the season and De La Cruz at .243. Reynolds has gone just 4/19 in his last five games, while De La Cruz is 4/18.

Collectively, the Pirates are batting just .235 this season, which is 18th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in terms of strikeouts and on-base percentage. Overall, they are 23rd in the league in scoring at 4.2 runs per game.

• The Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 1-9
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean in this Cubs vs. Pirates matchup is to take the Cubs to win straight-up. As for the over/under line, we are leaning towards taking the over. This is projected to be the 5th lowest-scoring game of the day, and 3rd fewest home runs are projected to be hit. Looking at today’s starters, Paul Skenes is 6th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are gearing up to face the Chicago Cubs in a crucial three-game series at PNC Park. As the 2024 MLB season enters its final stretch, both teams are at a crossroads, each with vastly different stakes. While the Pirates cling to dwindling playoff hopes, the Cubs are fighting to solidify their position in the National League Wild Card race. The series opener could set the tone for both teams’ fortunes.

Pirates’ Challenges: Joey Bart’s Injury Looms Large

Joey Bart has been a cornerstone for the Pirates since his mid-season acquisition from the San Francisco Giants, boasting a .272 batting average over 63 games. However, Bart’s status is in question after he exited Sunday’s 4-3 victory against the Cincinnati Reds due to left hamstring discomfort. The injury occurred as Bart sprinted to first base in an attempt to beat out a ground ball while serving as the designated hitter.

Pirates manager Derek Shelton underscored Bart’s importance, stating, “Him, Bryan [Reynolds], and Oneil [Cruz] have been the catalysts when we go offensively, and he just continues to have quality at-bats.”

Should Bart be sidelined, veteran catcher Yasmani Grandal, who delivered a dramatic walk-off two-run homer in Sunday’s game, will be called upon to fill the void. Grandal has been in excellent form, hitting .297 in August, a stark contrast to his struggles earlier in the season.

Despite winning four of their last six games, the Pirates find themselves eight games behind the final National League Wild Card spot, with several teams to leapfrog. But for Shelton and his squad, the belief remains unshaken.

“We still have September, and I’ve seen a lot of things happen in September,” Grandal emphasized. “You’ve just got to keep believing.”

Cubs’ Momentum: Building on Recent Success

On the other side, the Chicago Cubs arrive in Pittsburgh with a surge of momentum, having won seven of their last ten games. However, their offense has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their 7-2 loss to the Miami Marlins on Sunday, where they were held to just two runs. The Cubs have shown resilience, winning three consecutive series, but they remain 5.5 games back from securing a Wild Card berth, making every game critical.

Manager Craig Counsell acknowledged the missed opportunity on Sunday but remained focused on the bigger picture. “Winning series is a good thing. We need to keep doing that,” he remarked.

Jameson Taillon, set to start for the Cubs in the opener, will look to overcome his struggles against his former team. Taillon holds a 1-2 record with a 6.19 ERA in three career starts against the Pirates, and his performance will be under the spotlight as the Cubs aim to strike first in this crucial series.

Recap: Cubs Overwhelm Pirates in a Historic Rout

In a game that quickly turned into a one-sided affair, the Cubs unleashed an offensive barrage to claim an 18-8 victory over the Pirates in the series opener. Dansby Swanson’s grand slam and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s three stolen bases were the standout moments of a historic night for Chicago, marking their most stolen bases in a game since 1913.

Crow-Armstrong led the charge with three of the Cubs’ eight stolen bases, setting a relentless tone that the Pirates could not match. The Cubs’ aggressive base running complemented their season-high 18 runs and 21 hits, with contributions from all parts of the lineup. No. 9 hitter Miguel Amaya had a career night, going 4-for-5 with four RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki also recorded four hits, underscoring the depth and versatility of the Cubs’ offense.

Taillon, facing his former team, delivered a solid performance, allowing four runs over 6 2/3 innings to secure his ninth win of the season. While the Pirates managed to pull within one run at 3-2 in the third inning, the Cubs pulled away with an eight-run explosion in the sixth, capped by Swanson’s 405-foot grand slam.

Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller, who started on the mound, struggled to contain the Cubs’ aggressive approach, particularly on the basepaths. Keller surrendered three runs on seven hits and seven stolen bases over four innings before being pulled after 97 pitches. The Pirates’ bullpen fared no better, as Domingo German was tagged for eight runs in 2 2/3 innings, effectively sealing the Pirates’ fate.

Game Breakdown: Key Moments and Strategic Insights

1. Cubs’ Aggressive Base Running: The Cubs’ eight stolen bases were a game-changing element, disrupting the Pirates’ pitching rhythm and creating numerous scoring opportunities.
2. Pirates’ Pitching Struggles: Mitch Keller’s inability to control the Cubs’ running game and German’s disastrous outing from the bullpen were critical failures that allowed the Cubs to build an insurmountable lead.
3. Offensive Outburst: The Cubs’ lineup fired on all cylinders, with Swanson’s grand slam and Amaya’s breakout performance highlighting the team’s offensive depth.
4. Pirates’ Resilience: Despite the heavy loss, the Pirates managed to put up eight runs, showing some fight even as the game slipped away.

Looking Ahead: Pirates’ Playoff Hopes Fade, Cubs Eye the Wild Card

With this lopsided loss, the Pirates’ already slim playoff hopes took another hit. The team now faces an uphill battle, needing to string together wins to keep their postseason aspirations alive. Conversely, the Cubs continue their push towards a Wild Card berth, using this game as a springboard to further solidify their position in the standings.

Conclusion: A Defining Series for Both Teams

As the series progresses, the Pirates will need to regroup quickly to avoid a sweep, while the Cubs will look to maintain their momentum and capitalize on their recent success. With playoff implications on the line, this series could prove pivotal for both teams as they navigate the final stretch of the season.