Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions September 10th 2024

The forecast from Pittsburgh on Tuesday calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s. First pitch for this NL matchup is set for 6:40 PM ET from PNC Park. SN PT will be televising this one, and the Pirates are favored on the money line at -145. The money line odds for a Marlins win are sitting at +122, and they are 5th in the NL East with a record of 54-90. Pittsburgh is 5th in the NL Central at 68-76 and they will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak.

Adam Oller will be starting for the Marlins, and he will be facing off against Carmen Mlodzinski for the Pirates. Miami is 5th in the NL East, while the Pirates are 5th in the NL Central. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the Marlins have lost 2 straight heading into Tuesday’s game.

Miami vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

• Teams: Marlins at Pirates
• Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
• Date: Tuesday, September 10th
• Betting Odds PIT -145 | MIA +122 O/U 9

The Marlins Can Win If…

Adam Oller is getting the start for the Marlins today against the Pirates. He has started 3 games this season and has a 1-1 record. Oller’s last start was a loss to the Phillies, where he went 5 1/3 innings and gave up 4 earned runs.

For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 14th in the league, and have the 21st ranked home run total in the league.

Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 home runs are the best on the team and 15th best in the league. He is also 1st on the team with 60 RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is right behind him in terms of RBIs, with 59, and has 17 homers this season. Sánchez comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak.

• The Marlins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Marlins are 5-5
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Miami has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

The Pirates Can Win If…

Pittsburgh is giving the ball to right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski today, and he has made three starts this year. Mlodzinski has made 31 appearances and has a record of 2-5 with a 3.73 ERA. His WHIP for the season is 1.24, and opponents are batting .235 this year. Mlodzinski most recently pitched on September 8th out of the bullpen, where he went one inning, giving up one earned run, two hits, and a walk. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had put together back-to-back scoreless outings. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for the Pirates this season, as he is batting .275 and leads the team with 82 RBIs and 22 home runs. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are also near the top of the Pirates’ home run leaderboard, with 19 homers apiece. Cruz is also on a four-game hitting streak but has only gone 5/22 in his last six games.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game and are just 20th in home runs. They have been a below-average team in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in strikeouts.

• The Pirates are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 5.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

Oller’s Steady Start With the Marlins

As the Miami Marlins look ahead to the future, one player trying to make his mark is right-hander Adam Oller. Oller, who was signed by the Marlins (54-90) in July after being released by the Cleveland Guardians, has been showing potential since his call-up from Triple-A Jacksonville in August. On Tuesday night, Oller will take the mound for the second game of a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, eager to prove his worth after a tough loss in his last start.

In four starts with Miami, Oller has posted a 1-2 record with a 4.15 ERA. His best stretch came in August, where he sported a 3.31 ERA across three outings. The 29-year-old has shown flashes of what he can bring to the rotation, and the Marlins are giving him the chance to show that he belongs in their future plans.

Oller’s most recent start was against the Philadelphia Phillies last Thursday, where he allowed four runs over 5 1/3 innings, striking out six but walking five. Despite keeping Miami in the game, the bullpen couldn’t prevent inherited runners from scoring, leading to a 5-2 loss.

Reflecting on his performance, Oller remained positive: “Going into the sixth inning, still giving the team a chance to win, I hang my hat on that. But I’m not happy with how it ended.” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker echoed that optimism, adding, “There’s some really good things happening with him.” Oller will look to continue showing his potential against a young Pirates lineup in what will be his first career start against Pittsburgh.

Oneil Cruz Finds His Power Again for the Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates (68-76) grabbed a narrow 3-2 win in Monday’s series opener, thanks in part to a towering 444-foot home run from Oneil Cruz. The 6-foot-7 outfielder, who had been in a bit of a power slump, hadn’t homered since August 9.

Despite the home run drought, Cruz had a strong August overall, batting .389 for the month. Pirates manager Derek Shelton praised his approach, saying, “He stayed within his swing and didn’t try to force it. He’s going to hit them, and tonight showed that.”

Cruz’s homer came with two strikes, and he shortened his swing to make solid contact, sending the ball just shy of the batter’s eye in center field. With his power seemingly back, Cruz will be a key player to watch as the Pirates aim to finish their season strong.

Carmen Mlodzinski to Open for the Pirates

For the Pirates, right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski (2-5, 3.73 ERA) will take the ball as the opener on Tuesday. Mlodzinski has excelled in this role, posting a 2.08 ERA in his three previous starts as an opener. His latest appearance was on Sunday, where he allowed one run in one inning of relief against the Washington Nationals.

This will be Mlodzinski’s fourth start and 32nd appearance of the season. His track record against Miami is limited, having faced them just three times last year in relief, where he posted a 7.71 ERA. Still, the Pirates are confident in his ability to set the tone early.

What’s at Stake?

For the Marlins, these remaining games are about evaluating players like Adam Oller, who is trying to secure a spot in Miami’s 2024 rotation. A strong finish to the season could solidify his place in their future plans. On the other side, the Pirates are focusing on developing their young talent, including Oneil Cruz, whose power and potential make him a cornerstone of their lineup moving forward.

Key Players to Watch

• Adam Oller (MIA): Oller will be looking to build on his recent strong performances and bounce back after a tough outing against the Phillies.
• Oneil Cruz (PIT): After breaking his home run drought, Cruz will be looking to keep his power surge going as he continues his development in center field.
• Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT): As the opener, Mlodzinski will aim to give the Pirates a strong start and set the tone for the game, keeping Miami’s bats quiet early on.

Tuesday’s matchup presents an intriguing duel between a Marlins pitcher eager to prove his worth and a Pirates lineup fueled by their emerging stars.

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the under, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. As for a straight-up pick, we would be leaning toward the Pirates to come out on top. Pittsburgh starter Carmen Mlodzinski has our 2nd best projection in the league in terms of earned runs allowed, and Adam Oller has the worst chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.