Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 8th 2024

From PNC Park in Pittsburgh, we have the Nationals and Pirates facing off. Sunday’s matchup is NL matchup, and the Nationals are 4th in the NL East with a record of 64-78, while the Pirates are 5th in the NL Central with a record of 66-76.

The moneyline odds have the Pirates at -160 compared to the Nationals at +135. Today’s over/under line is 8.5 runs, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Jared Jones is starting for the Pirates, while the Nationals are going with Patrick Corbin. MASN will be televising this game.

Washington vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

• Teams: Nationals at Pirates
• Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
• Date: Sunday, September 8th
• Betting Odds PIT -160 | WSH +135 O/U 8.5

The Nationals Can Win If…

So far this season, Patrick Corbin has made 28 starts and has a record of 5-12. His ERA is 5.41, along with a WHIP of 1.52. Corbin has pitched much better at home, coming in with a record of 3-5 and an ERA of 4.73. On the road, he is 2-7 with a 7.11 ERA. Corbin has won each of his last three starts, most recently coming out of the game with the lead against the Marlins on September 3rd. In that outing, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs on seven hits. His ERA for the month of September is 3.60.

Washington’s offense has been one of the better teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts this season, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league. Overall, they are batting a collective .245, which is 10th in the league. However, they are near the bottom of the league in home runs and isolated power. As a team, they are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league.

Luis García Jr. and CJ Abrams have been two of the Nationals’ top power threats this season, as they have 15 and 18 homers, respectively. Both players are also tied for the team lead in RBIs. Over his last 10 games, Andrés Chaparro has four home runs and is batting .243. José Tena has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 12/41 in his last 10 games.

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• The Nationals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Nationals are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Washington has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Nationals have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Nationals are 5-5
• Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Washington has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

The Pirates Can Win If…

Jared Jones will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up three earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, which came against the Cubs, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Jones has made 18 starts and has a record of 5-7 to go along with an ERA of 3.91. Opponents have hit .223 off Jones this season, and he has a total of 10 quality starts. Per nine innings, Jones is averaging 9.41 strikeouts compared to just 2.75 walks. At home, his ERA is 3.12 compared to 5.64 on the road.

Heading into today’s game, Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top hitter this season, batting .278 with a team-leading 22 homers and 79 RBIs. Bryan De La Cruz is second on the team in homers, but he is batting just .235 for the season. Reynolds is also 1st on the team in RBIs. Jared Triolo has gone 4/17 in his last five games, while Rowdy Tellez has just two hits in his last 12 at-bats.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Overall, they are 22nd in home runs and are near the bottom of the league in team on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

• The Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Nationals and Pirates matchup should be a lower-scoring game than anticipated, as we have this one as our 2nd lowest combined scoring game of the day. However, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we are leaning towards the Nationals to pick up the win. Patrick Corbin has the 4th worst strikeout projection among today’s starters, but we still like the Nationals to come out on top. The Pirates starter, Jared Jones, has the 15th best strikeout projection.

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Why Nationals and Pirates Still Find Meaning in Every Game

Don’t tell the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates they’ve got nothing to play for in September. Sure, they’re out of the postseason race, but both teams are still grinding for pride, player development, and a glimpse of what the future could hold.

As they get ready for the last game of their four-game series in Pittsburgh, there’s more on the line than just another W. Both squads are battling for the season series, and it’s clear that both the present and the future matter. After sweeping Saturday’s doubleheader, the Nationals have a chance to clinch the series, with both teams locked at 3-3 heading into Sunday’s showdown.

Doubleheader Drama: Nationals’ Late Comeback Steals the Show

Saturday’s doubleheader was nothing short of dramatic for both teams. The Nationals (64-78) took the opener 5-3, but the nightcap is where things really heated up. Trailing 6-4 in the ninth inning, Washington came roaring back with a four-run rally to win 8-6. Key hits from Andres Chaparro and Ildemaro Vargas sealed the deal, with Vargas delivering a two-out, two-run double on a 3-2 pitch that left Pirates fans (66-76) stunned.

Nationals’ closer Kyle Finnegan played a massive role in both wins, locking down his 35th and 36th saves of the season. After a long day of baseball, Finnegan showed mental and physical toughness that set him apart.

“These are the kind of days where you’re playing against your own mind and body,” Finnegan said. “You’re tired, but that’s the challenge. We’ve got a lot of guys here who take pride in being available and helping the team win.”

Pirates’ Rollercoaster Ride: Keller’s Strong Start, Chapman’s Collapse

On the Pirates’ side, Mitch Keller had a solid start in the second game, pitching six innings of two-run ball, striking out eight, and not walking anyone. It was the kind of performance the Pirates needed, but it didn’t hold up. Aroldis Chapman, their closer, blew his fifth save of the season, giving up four runs in just two-thirds of an inning, which handed the game to the Nationals.

This kind of game shows how unpredictable baseball can be. You can have a strong start, but if the bullpen falters, the game can quickly get away from you.

Sunday Showdown: Corbin vs. Jones in a Battle of the Mound

The series will wrap up with an intriguing pitching matchup. On the mound for Washington is Patrick Corbin, the 35-year-old veteran lefty making his 29th start of the season. His numbers aren’t great this year—he’s 5-12 with a 5.41 ERA—but he’s coming off a solid performance against the Marlins where he pitched 5 2/3 innings, giving up just two runs in a 6-2 win. Corbin has a bit of history on his side too, sporting a 6-3 record with a 3.04 ERA in 14 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Facing him will be Pittsburgh’s 23-year-old rookie Jared Jones. Jones has shown a lot of promise this season, with a 5-7 record and a 3.91 ERA. His 106 strikeouts rank third on the Pirates’ staff and 11th among rookies in the majors. After missing part of the summer with an injury, Jones has returned strong. His last outing, a no-decision against the Cubs, saw him go 6 1/3 innings and give up three earned runs.

Jones knows the importance of these late-season games. “I want to pitch in meaningful games for Pittsburgh,” he said. “This is like July for me,” acknowledging that his injury-shortened season has made these final games even more critical.

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Why These Games Matter: Pride, Development, and Momentum

Sure, there’s no playoff spot on the line, but that doesn’t mean these games don’t matter. For veterans like Corbin, it’s about finishing the season on a high note and maybe building some momentum for next year. For rookies like Jones, it’s a chance to gain valuable experience and prove themselves in high-pressure situations.

September games are also a great chance for younger players to prove they belong. The Pirates have a promising core of young talent, and players like Jones are making the most of every opportunity to show what they can do heading into 2024.

For the Nationals, it’s a similar story. They’re giving their young players time to develop while also letting their veterans contribute meaningfully. Washington’s comeback win on Saturday, led by Chaparro and Vargas, is a perfect example of how even in rebuilding years, a team can find joy in fighting for hard-fought victories.

Adversity and Resilience: Key Themes in the Late Season

Both the Nationals and Pirates are dealing with their own forms of adversity, whether it’s the grind of a long season, bullpen issues, or plain old fatigue. Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan summed it up perfectly when he talked about battling through the mental and physical weariness. This part of the season is all about resilience, and the players who can push through the grind will set themselves up for success down the road.

For the Pirates, Keller’s solid start and Jones’ development are crucial bright spots. But these games also highlight the team’s reliance on younger players and the inevitable growing pains that come with it. The same goes for Washington—veterans like Corbin are doing their best to overcome tough seasons and prove they still have value.

Looking Ahead: Building Toward Future Success

Even though both teams are out of the playoff race, they’re still playing with one eye on the future. Every game is a lesson for rookies and a chance for veterans to make their mark. For the Pirates, seeing Jones pitch deep into games is helping the coaching staff figure out how to use him next year. For the Nationals, players like Finnegan and Corbin are playing for pride and professional growth.

These final games are more than just a formality—they’re critical chapters in each team’s story as they look to become more competitive in the future. There’s no postseason berth up for grabs, but there’s a lot of value in the lessons learned and the groundwork being laid for what comes next.

Conclusion: Finding Meaning in Every Game

For the Nationals and Pirates, these late-season games are about more than just padding the win-loss column. They’re about pride, chemistry, and laying a strong foundation for future success. With a mix of young talent, seasoned veterans, and plenty of unexpected moments, the stakes are still high. Whether it’s a rookie like Jared Jones honing his craft or a veteran like Patrick Corbin fighting to finish strong, both teams are finding purpose in the final stretch.

In the end, even without the pressure of a playoff race, every game still counts.