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There appears to be a chance for light rain in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, where the forecasted temperature is 89 degrees. First pitch for this Padres and Pirates matchup is set for 6:40 PM ET from PNC Park. San Diego is favored on the money line (-170), while the Pirates are the slight underdogs (+143). The over/under line is currently 8 runs.
SN PT will be televising this NL matchup, and the Padres are looking to extend their two-game winning streak. They are 61-52 and 3rd in the NL West, while the Pirates are 3rd in the NL Central with an overall record of 56-55.
San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Key Information
- Teams: Padres at Pirates
- Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
- Date: Tuesday, August 6th
- Betting Odds SD -170 | PIT +143 O/U 8
The Padres Can Win If…
Dylan Cease has been pitching well for the Padres, coming into the game with a record of 11-8 and an ERA of 3.42. He has made 23 starts this season and has pitched well on the road, going 6-3 with a 4.99 ERA. Cease’s ERA at home is 3.29. Cease most recently faced the Dodgers, where he picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Before that, he had three straight starts without giving up an earned run. Cease has one complete game shutout this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Padres are the league’s top hitting team, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They also have the league’s best team batting average and have been the toughest team in the league to strike out. San Diego has been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are 12th in home runs.
Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado have been two of the Padres’ top power threats this season, with Profar leading the team with 19 homers and Machado right behind him with 17. Over their last 10 games, both have four homers and have hit over .300. Machado also comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak.
- The Padres are 8-2 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Padres are 3-2 vs. the run line.
- San Diego has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
- The Padres have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 8-2
- Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
- San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense
The Pirates Can Win If…
Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Astros on July 30th, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four starts, Falter has alternated between wins and losses. His overall record is 5-7, and he has an ERA of 3.95. Opposing batters are hitting .241 off the left-hander this season. Falter has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 6.02 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, Bryan Reynolds and Bryan De La Cruz have been the Pirates’ top power threats this season, as Reynolds has 19 homers and De La Cruz has 18. Reynolds is also batting .289 for the season and is 14th in the league with 66 RBIs. De La Cruz is hitting just .242 this season. Joey Bart has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/34 in his last 10 games, with two homers and seven RBIs.
As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game and have been a little better on the road (4.4 RPG) than at home (4.0 RPG). Overall, they are 23rd in home runs and are batting just .233, which is 17th in the league. Their team OPS of .672 is 25th in the MLB.
- The Pirates are 5-5 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Pirates are 4-1 vs. the run line.
- Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
- The Pirates have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 7-3
- Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 4.9 runs per game on offense
Dylan Cease’s Stellar July Performance
San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease had an unforgettable July, and he’s looking to keep his momentum going as he takes the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday in the opener of a three-game series. Cease (11-8, 3.42 ERA) was named the National League Pitcher of the Month for July, going 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and holding hitters to a .143 average. He has won four straight starts, allowing just one run and five hits over 27 2/3 innings, including a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals on July 25. In his most recent outing, an 8-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 31, he gave up the lone run.
The 28-year-old pitcher has a solid track record against Pittsburgh, with a 1-0 record and a 2.53 ERA in two career starts. Over his last four outings, he boasts a 0.33 ERA and 36 strikeouts.
“Every game we’re playing now is extremely important,” Cease said after beating the Dodgers. “We need to bring this focus, intensity, and effort to every game. We’re really looking good right now.”
Padres’ Recent Surge
After a rocky first half of the season, the Padres have been on fire since the All-Star break. They’ve won 11 of their last 14 games and five straight series, most recently taking two of three from the Colorado Rockies.
“We’ve been able to do a lot of things consistently together,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said. “Starting pitching, scoring runs, playing clean defense, and smart baserunning. That’s usually a good recipe for success.”
The Padres are currently holding the second wild card spot in the National League, with a half-game lead. They’re also just 4 1/2 games behind the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West.
Pirates’ Struggles and Focus
The Pirates are looking to bounce back after a tough 6-5 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, where they blew a 4-0 lead. This was their third loss in the last four games, dropping them 3 1/2 games behind Arizona for the final wild card spot in the National League. “Not finishing was the story of the two games we lost in this series,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said. “We did not execute pitches with two strikes, and we have to.”
Reliever Colin Holderman struggled in the seventh inning on Sunday, walking the first two batters before giving up a three-run homer to Joc Pederson, which gave the Diamondbacks the lead. “It’s just frustrating when you don’t win,” Pirates All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds said. “It happens. You’ve just got to bounce back from it. We were right there in all of them. Sometimes things happen. They got the better end of it twice. We’ve just got to move forward and get a hot streak.”
Pitching Matchup: Cease vs. Falter
Bailey Falter (5-7, 3.95 ERA) will start for the Pirates on Tuesday. The left-hander has struggled against the Padres, with a 16.20 ERA in 1 2/3 innings over two appearances (zero starts), allowing three runs on three hits.
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The Lean
Today’s matchup between the Padres and Pirates has the highest projected runs total in the league, and our lean would be to take the over. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Padres to come out on top. San Diego’s offense has the best team hits and runs scored projections, and Dylan Cease has the best strikeout projection among today’s starters.
