Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 8th 2024

The money line odds for today’s Padres vs Pirates game have the Padres favored at -104 compared to the Pirates at -115. This NL matchup is set for 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. MLBN is carrying this game on TV.

The Padres are 63-52 and they have won four straight, while the Pirates are 56-57 and have lost three in a row. Luis L. Ortiz is starting for the Pirates, and he is facing off against Randy Vasquez for the Padres. San Diego is 3rd in the NL West, while the Pirates are 3rd in the NL Central.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

Randy Vásquez is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Orioles, where he gave up six earned runs in just two innings of work. In that July 28th start, he also gave up four walks and four hits. Vásquez finished with the loss in that outing. Before that, he had pitched well, not giving up an earned run in two straight starts. Vásquez’s ERA for the season is 4.62, along with a record of 3-6. Opponents are batting .298 off the right-hander this season. So far, he has made 16 appearances and 16 starts.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the top hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .265. They have also been tough to strike out, as their 6 strikeouts per game is the best mark in the league. The Padres are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the best slugging percentage in the league.

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Jurickson Profar has been the Padres top power threat this season, as his 19 homers are 14th best in the league, and he is also tied for the team lead in RBIs (71). Over his last seven games, Profar has gone deep three times. Manny Machado has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/29 in his last seven games, with three homers and six RBIs. Machado is 3rd on the team with 62 RBIs.

Pittsburgh is sending Luis L. Ortiz to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 28 appearances this year and has a record of 5-2 with a 3.21 ERA. So far, Ortiz has made three quality starts and is averaging 6.96 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had not allowed a run in two straight starts. At home, his ERA is 3.91 compared to 3.5 on the road.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Overall, the Pirates are 20th in home runs and have a team batting average of just .233. However, they do have a collective BABIP of .29, which is 12th in the league.

Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top hitter this season, batting .288 with 19 homers and 68 RBIs. He has also been on a nice run of late, going 9/22 in his last six games. Bryan De La Cruz is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 18 homers this season but is batting just .240. De La Cruz is 3rd on the team with 52 RBIs.

• The Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 7-3
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 4.9 runs per game on offense

Our lean in this Padres vs. Pirates matchup is to take the Padres to win straight-up. We also have this as the 5th highest-scoring game of the day and are leaning towards the over. Neither starter is projected to put up big strikeout numbers, but between the two, Randy Vásquez is ranked 11th among today’s starters compared to Luis L. Ortiz, who is our lowest projected starter in terms of strikeouts today.

Padres’ Jackson Merrill Will Look to Continue Late-Game Magic at Pirates

On paper, Jackson Merrill might be a rookie but at the plate, he’s got the clutch bat of a veteran.

Merrill’s Clutch Performances

On Wednesday, the 21-year-old conveyed the game-tying grand slam in the 10th inning of the San Diego Padres‘ 9-8 extra-innings win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s the third time this season he’s scored a game-tying or game-dominating shot in the 10th, most in the majors. He and the Padres will search for that to proceed when they go for the breadth of the host Pirates on Thursday.

“He embraces it,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said. “He loves it, thrives on it. … He’s got that ‘it’ factor.”

Merrill’s Impact

Merrill’s tying impact was his second homer of the game, wherein he completed 4-for-6. The middle defender’s .288 batting average leads all certified rookies, and he positions second among them in slugging rate (.467) and third in on-base-in addition to slugging rate (.785). He’s been especially great out and about, hitting .337 and slugging .520 with a .877 Operations contrasted with a .237/.411/.688 result at home.

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What’s more, similar to his group, he’s been doing great since the All-Star break, interfacing at a .344 clasp with an eye-popping .997 Operations. He’s in good company to help the Padres to 13 dominates in 16 matches since the timetable continued. Second baseman Xander Bogaerts is hitting .409 since the break.

Pitching Matchup

Randy Vasquez (3-6, 4.62 ERA) will toe the rubber for San Diego. He allowed two hits in 1 1/3 innings in a no-decision in his lone previous appearance against Pittsburgh in 2023.

Pirates’ Recent Struggles

The Pirates, meanwhile, are trying to overcome what has become a trend on this six-game homestand, with several blown leads. On Wednesday, Pittsburgh led 6-5 in the top of the ninth before closer David Bednar gave up Merrill’s solo shot. Reliever Colin Holderman came in for the 10th inning and was tagged for the loss for the fourth time in the past eight days.

“We’re in every game,” manager Derek Shelton said. “We’re battling. We’re battling back. We just haven’t been able to finish games, and we got to do that. To continue to do what we’ve done through the first 110 games, 120 games, whatever it is, we have to just continue to finish games. Unfortunately on this homestand so far, we have not. We’ve had leads in three of the losses in the seventh or later.”

Pirates’ Efforts to Bounce Back

The Pirates pulled inside one in their half of the tenth and had the triumphant sudden spike in demand for base with one out.

“We kept battling. I think that’s the thing,” Shelton said. “We ended the game with the winning run on base. It’s a challenge when you get down three runs in an extra-inning game. We continued to have really good at-bats and gave ourselves a chance to win, just didn’t get a hit to win it.”

Pittsburgh has lost three in succession and five of its beyond six. It stays four games out of the last special case spot in the National League, held by the Atlanta Conquers, with three different groups between them.

Pirates’ Starting Pitcher

The Pirates will go to Luis Ortiz (5-2, 3.21) as they hope to stay away from the scope. He’s confronted the Padres once in his profession, with a 7.71 ERA, allowing four sudden spikes in demand for six hits in a no-choice in 2023.