Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions August 12th 2024

Astros’ Framber Valdez looks for another big outing at Rays

Monday’s Astros vs. Rays game has a first pitch set for 6:50 PM ET from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL. Framber Valdez is starting for the Astros, and he is facing off against Taj Bradley for the Rays. Houston is 62-55 and they have won five straight, while the Rays are 59-58 and are 4th in the AL East.

The money line odds have the Astros at -122 compared to the Rays at +103, and the over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs. BSSUN is carrying this one on TV.

Houston vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Rays
• Where: Tropicana Field St. Petersburg
• Date: Monday, August 12th
• Betting Odds HOU -122 | TB +103 O/U 7.5

The Astros Can Win If…

Framber Valdez will be looking to build off his last outing, where he came one out away from a complete game. Against the Rangers on August 6th, he went 8 2/3 innings, giving up just two earned runs on five hits. He finished with the win in that outing. Valdez has been pitching well recently, as he hasn’t lost a start since June 26th. In his 20 starts, he has a record of 11-5, an ERA of 3.46, and WHIP of 1.19. Valdez’s batting average allowed is .235, and he has one complete game and 12 quality starts this year.

Yordan Alvarez has been on fire for the Astros of late, going 13/28 in his last eight games with five homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .307 with a league-leading 63 RBIs and 25 homers. Kyle Tucker is also a big power threat for the Astros, as he has gone deep 19 times this season, which is 2nd on the team and 13th in the league. He comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are one of the league’s best-hitting teams, with a team batting average of .262. They are also one of the league’s best home run-hitting teams and have the 7th best slugging percentage in the league.

• The Astros are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 6.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 6-4
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Houston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 5.0 runs per game on offense

The Rays Can Win If…

Taj Bradley gets the start for the Rays today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cardinals. In that start, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up five runs (all earned), and took the loss. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in two straight starts. Bradley’s ERA for the season is 3.07, along with a record of 6-6. Out of his 16 starts, he has seven quality starts and is averaging 10.48 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Bradley has allowed 12 homers and is averaging 3.07 walks per nine innings.

So far this season, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the MLB. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.6 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .234 and have the league’s 22nd ranked home run total. However, the team does have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late. Brandon Lowe is 9/34 in his last eight games with two homers, and Josh Lowe has also gone deep twice while hitting .348.

Christopher Morel has been the Rays’ top power hitter this season, as his 20 homers are 12th in the league. However, he is batting just .193. Yandy Diaz is batting .271 and is 2nd on the team with 51 RBIs. Morel leads the team in RBIs and has gone deep 20 times this season.

• The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Rays are 5-5
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 4.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

There should be no shortage of offense in today’s Astros and Rays matchup, and not only are we leaning towards the Astros picking up the win, but we are also leaning towards the over. Framber Valdez has the highest strikeout projection among today’s starters, and on the other side, we have Taj Bradley with the worst chance to pick up a win.

When the Houston Astros open their three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night in St. Petersburg, all eyes will be on left-hander Framber Valdez. Fresh off a performance that nearly etched his name into the record books again, Valdez will look to continue his red-hot form and help the Astros extend their winning streak.

Framber Valdez’s Stellar Form and Near No-Hitter

Valdez (11-5, 3.46 ERA) is coming off one of the most impressive starts of his career. Last Tuesday, against the Texas Rangers, Valdez was just one out away from pitching his second career no-hitter. With two outs in the ninth inning, and after inducing a double play, Valdez’s 107th pitch—a cutter—was taken deep by Corey Seager, ending his bid for history with a two-run homer.

Reflecting on the near miss, Valdez remained upbeat, focusing on the positives. “I’m happy,” he said. “Not everybody gets to get a no-hitter all the way to the ninth inning. For me, the most important thing is the team won and I won and I battled.”

Valdez’s recent run of form has been nothing short of spectacular. Over his last eight starts, he’s 6-0 with a 2.81 ERA, and the Astros have won all of those games. This consistency makes him one of the most reliable arms in the Houston rotation as they push towards the postseason.

Houston Astros Riding a Wave of Momentum

The Astros are hitting their stride at a crucial point in the season. They come into this series riding a five-game winning streak, capped by a commanding 10-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. The team’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, with Alex Bregman, Jeremy Peña, and Yordan Alvarez leading the charge. In their recent three-game sweep of Boston, the Astros launched nine home runs, showcasing their power and depth.

“That’s a playoff team over there,” Bregman said of the Red Sox. “They’re a really good ballclub. … Our pitching threw the ball well, I thought we put together quality at-bats all three days and we got to continue to do that. Especially when we play against really good teams.”

This combination of strong pitching and potent offense has positioned Houston as one of the most formidable teams in the league as the postseason approaches.

Tampa Bay Rays: A Team in Need of Wins

While the Astros are surging, the Rays find themselves in a more precarious position. Tampa Bay is currently 5 1/2 games out of an American League wild-card spot, making this series crucial for their playoff hopes. They managed to avoid a sweep against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday, pulling out a 2-1 win thanks to a clutch sacrifice fly by Curtis Mead in the eighth inning.

On the mound for the Rays will be right-hander Taj Bradley (6-6, 3.07 ERA), who has shown flashes of brilliance this season. Bradley was named the AL Pitcher of the Month for July, highlighted by a three-start stretch where he didn’t allow a single run over 20 innings. However, his August campaign started on a sour note as he struggled against the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up five runs on nine hits over just 4 2/3 innings.

Bradley acknowledged the highs and lows, saying, “Month to month, I always try to perform better for myself or beat my own expectations. Awards like [Pitcher of the Month] are cool to come by, but I always think in my head there’s more ahead.”

Pitching Duel: Valdez vs. Bradley

This game sets up an intriguing pitching duel. Valdez, with his current form, enters as the more consistent and battle-tested arm. His ability to induce ground balls and work deep into games makes him a tough matchup for any lineup, including the Rays’. On the other hand, Bradley’s potential to dominate, as evidenced by his July performance, adds an element of unpredictability. However, his recent struggles suggest he’ll need to quickly find his form against a surging Astros lineup if the Rays hope to start the series on a high note.

Conclusion

As the Astros and Rays clash, much of the outcome will hinge on the performance of the starting pitchers. Valdez is looking to maintain his dominance and extend Houston’s winning streak, while Bradley seeks to bounce back and keep Tampa Bay’s postseason dreams alive. With both teams having much at stake, this series opener promises to be a must-watch for baseball fans.

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