Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions August 14th 2024

Surging Astros have sights on series sweep vs. Rays

The Astros are the favorites heading into Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Rays, with their money line odds sitting at -121 compared to the Rays at +102. This one is getting started at 6:50 PM ET from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. Ronel Blanco is starting for the Astros, and they are 7-0 over their last 7 games, putting them 1st in the AL West. Zack Littell is on the mound for the Rays, and they are 4th in the AL East.

The over/under line for this game is currently at 8 runs, and the under is paying out at -110 compared to -110 for the over. In the AL, the Astros have the best record of 64-55, while the Rays are 59-60 and have lost two straight. The Astros are +142 on the run line, while the Rays are -171.

Houston vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Rays
• Where: Tropicana Field St. Petersburg
• Date: Wednesday, August 14th
• Betting Odds HOU -121 | TB +102 O/U 8

The Astros Can Win If…

Houston is sending Ronel Blanco to the mound today vs. the Rays, and he comes in with a record of 9-6 and an ERA of 3.02. Blanco’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.05. In his 22 starts, Blanco has one complete game shutout and 11 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.86 strikeouts and 3.59 walks. Blanco most recently faced the Red Sox, where he gave up two earned runs in four innings of work. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Astros are 2nd in the league in batting average at .262 and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up an average of 4.8 runs per contest. Houston is also near the top of the league in slugging percentage and on-base percentage. The Astros have been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts this season but are just 25th in walks.

Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman have been two of the Astros’ top power threats this season, with Alvarez leading the team with 25 homers and Bregman sitting in 2nd with 19. Over his last seven games, Bregman is hitting .469 with four homers, while Alvarez has gone 11/26 with five homers in that stretch. Catcher Yainer Diaz has the team’s top batting average at .301 and is on a seven-game hitting streak.

• The Astros are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 6.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 8-2
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Houston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 5.5 runs per game on offense

The Rays Can Win If…

Zack Littell gets the start for the Rays today and will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he took the loss. Against the Orioles on August 9th, he gave up three earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back further, Littell had put together two straight scoreless outings before that. His record for the season is 5-8, and he has an ERA of 4.12. Littell’s WHIP for the season is 1.35. Opposing batters are hitting .283 off Littell this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging just 1.73 walks compared to 8.16 strikeouts.

So far this season, the Rays offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the MLB. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.6 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .232 and have the 25th ranked slugging percentage in the league.

Christopher Morel is leading the Rays with 20 home runs this season, but he is batting just .190. Yandy Diaz is batting .270 and has the 2nd most RBIs on the team. Over his last nine games, Brandon Lowe has gone 9/38 with two homers and nine RBIs.

• The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Rays are 5-5
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 4.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the over, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Astros to pick up the win. Looking at the starters for this matchup, we like the strikeout potential of Ronel Blanco, and we have him finishing with the 7th most strikeouts among today’s starters.

The Houston Astros are poised to complete a three-game sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays, fueled by a potent combination of offensive firepower and solid pitching. With Tuesday’s 3-2 victory, the Astros extended their winning streak to seven games, solidifying their lead in the American League West. As they head into the final game of this road series in St. Petersburg, Florida, the Astros seem unstoppable, while the Rays are searching for answers.

Astros on a Hot Streak

Houston’s current form is nothing short of impressive. The Astros have stormed through their nine-game road trip with a 7-1 record, showcasing their dominance over both the Boston Red Sox and now the Rays. Leading the charge is Alex Bregman, who has been in scintillating form. Bregman has homered in four consecutive games and boasts a remarkable .432 batting average (16-for-37) with eight RBIs over his last eight games. His resurgence has been a key factor in the Astros’ recent success.

“Bregman’s found his groove; his swing is right where it needs to be,” said Astros manager Joe Espada. “He’s always confident, but right now, he’s putting together some really good swings.”

Supporting Bregman are Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz, both contributing crucial hits during this stretch. The Astros’ lineup has been relentless, consistently putting pressure on opposing pitchers.

Reinforcements on the Horizon

The Astros are already playing at a high level, but help is on the way. Veteran pitcher Justin Verlander and outfielder Kyle Tucker are expected to return soon, potentially making the team even more formidable. Verlander, a 260-game winner and future Hall of Famer, is set to make his final rehab start with Double-A Corpus Christi before rejoining the Astros. Tucker, sidelined with a right shin contusion, is also nearing a return.

At 41, Verlander has his sights set on reaching 300 career victories, and his comeback could be pivotal as the Astros battle the Seattle Mariners for the division title. Tucker’s return will add more depth to an already potent lineup, giving the Astros an edge as they head into the final stretch of the season.

Rays Struggling to Find Form

On the other side of the diamond, the Rays are in a slump, having dipped below .500 for the first time since July 19. The timing of the Astros’ visit couldn’t have been worse for Tampa Bay, as the team has struggled offensively, scoring two runs or fewer in eight of their last twelve games. Rays manager Kevin Cash acknowledged the tough timing, noting that the Astros have been on a tear since their series in Boston.

“They went into their last series, and everybody got hot,” Cash said. “Bregman seems like he’s doubled his production from just the week that we saw him, so it was probably just a matter of time, and we’re catching them at a bad time.”

Despite these challenges, the Rays are hopeful about the recent call-up of top prospect Junior Caminero. The 21-year-old Dominican slugger made his 2024 debut on Tuesday, going 1-for-4 with a blistering 116.3 mph infield single. While Caminero’s offensive contribution was limited, his defensive play was outstanding, making two diving stops at third base to prevent runs.

“(His defense) was probably the highlight of the game. Really encouraging,” Cash said of the young infielder, who has been thrust into a key role following the trade of All-Star Isaac Paredes to the Chicago Cubs.

Pitching Matchup for the Series Finale

The Astros will send right-hander Ronel Blanco (9-6, 3.02 ERA) to the mound for the series finale. Blanco has faced the Rays twice in his career, including a start on August 3, where he allowed two runs on five hits over six innings, striking out seven. Despite his solid performance, he took the loss in that outing.

Tampa Bay counters with Zack Littell (5-8, 4.11 ERA), who has been effective against Houston in the past. Littell is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts against the Astros, including a win in that same August 3 matchup, where he limited Houston to one run on four hits over 5 2/3 innings.

Conclusion

As the Astros aim for a series sweep, they have all the momentum on their side, backed by a lineup that’s firing on all cylinders and the impending return of key players. The Rays, meanwhile, face an uphill battle as they look to snap out of their recent funk. With the division race heating up, both teams have plenty at stake, but Houston appears to have the upper hand as they close out their road trip.

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