Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions September 19th 2024

From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have the Red Sox and Rays facing off in an AL East matchup. The Red Sox are currently favored on the money line, and the money line odds have them at -106 compared to the Rays at -114. The over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 6:50 PM ET, and BSSUN is carrying the game on TV. Brayan Bello is starting for the Red Sox, and the Rays are going with Zack Littell. The Red Sox are 76-76, while the Rays are 74-78, and these teams are 3rd and 4th in the AL East, respectively.

Boston vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Rays
• Where: Tropicana Field St. Petersburg
• Date: Thursday, September 19th
• Betting Odds TB -114 | BOS -106 O/U 7.5

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Rays on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 14-7 with a 4.60 ERA. Bello’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.38. In his last outing, he pitched 5 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run on four hits. Bello finished with two strikeouts in that outing. Leading up to that start, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight outings. Bello has a total of 19 homers this season.

Over the past eight games, Masataka Yoshida has been swinging a hot bat for the Red Sox, going 9/29 (.310) with one home run and six RBIs. Trevor Story and Rafael Devers have also been swinging the bat well, with Story batting .292 and Devers hitting .274 for the season. Devers is also the team’s leader in RBIs and is 2nd on the team with 28 homers.

For the season, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game and are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams. As a team, they are batting .254, which is the 5th best mark in the league. Boston’s team BABIP of .32 is the best in the MLB right now.

• The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 2-7-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 2-8
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 2.6 runs per game on offense

The Rays Can Win If…

Zack Littell will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that start vs. the Guardians, he went six innings and gave up just five hits. Littell has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 7-9. His ERA for the season is 3.73, along with a WHIP of 1.29. Opposing batters are hitting .268 off the right-hander this season. Littell has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 21 homers.

For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a team batting average of just .231. The team’s top hitter so far has been Yandy Diaz, who is batting .282 and has 14 homers.

Brandon Lowe and Christopher Morel are the Rays’ top home run hitters, but Lowe is batting just .244 this season, and Morel is hitting just .196. Lowe has two homers in his last seven games but is just 7/29 in that stretch. Jonathan Aranda and Jose Siri are both on three-game hitting streaks.

• The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

Red Sox Seek Series Win Against Rays Despite Sluggish Offense

The Boston Red Sox are aiming to ignite their inconsistent offense and secure a series win against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday night in St. Petersburg, Florida. Despite being limited to just nine hits over the first two games of the series, the Red Sox (76-76) find themselves in a position to win the three-game set after pulling off a 2-1 victory on Wednesday.

In a tightly contested game, Boston relied on small ball to break a 1-1 tie in the eighth inning. Trevor Story, who homered in the sixth to even the score, sparked the game-winning rally with a single, followed by a pair of stolen bases. Jarren Duran then drove in the game-winning run with a grounder through the Rays’ drawn-in infield, clinching a much-needed win.

Red Sox Searching for Offensive Spark

Boston’s offense has struggled throughout the series, managing just three hits in the 8-3 loss in the opener. While power has been limited, Triston Casas has been a bright spot, going 2-for-5 with a home run and a double in the series. Casas, a Florida native, has also enjoyed playing in his home state with family in attendance, despite feeling the added pressure.

“Having them around always makes me feel good,” Casas said. “But they do put a little pressure on me to do well.”

The Red Sox have been strong on the road this season, improving to 41-36 away from Fenway Park. Additionally, their ability to succeed in close games is noteworthy, as Boston is 17-12 in one-run contests, showing resilience in tight situations.

Rays Look to Bounce Back

The Tampa Bay Rays (74-78) squandered an opportunity to tie the game on Wednesday despite a stellar outing from Ryan Pepiot, who struck out a career-high 12 batters over six innings. Tampa Bay’s offense had a chance to capitalize in the eighth inning with runners on the corners and just one out but couldn’t find the clutch hit to get the run home.

“First and third, you’ve got to find a way to get that run in,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said in frustration following the loss.

Pitching Matchup: Littell vs. Bello

The Rays will turn to Zack Littell (7-9, 3.73 ERA), a former Red Sox right-hander who is enjoying a breakout season with Tampa Bay. Littell has set career highs in starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts this year. Over his past six starts, Littell has been especially strong, posting a 2.05 ERA. Despite this success, Littell’s career numbers against Boston aren’t as dominant, with a 4.26 ERA in three appearances.

Boston will counter with Brayan Bello (14-7, 4.60 ERA), the team’s leader in wins this season. Bello has been solid in recent starts, going 4-2 over his last six outings. However, he has struggled against Tampa Bay throughout his career, with a 2-3 record and a 6.47 ERA in six starts versus the Rays.

What’s at Stake

As the series finale approaches, both teams are looking to finish strong. The Red Sox are aiming to find offensive consistency and take the series, while the Rays hope to avoid being swept at home and bounce back from missed opportunities. With Bello and Littell on the mound, this game will likely hinge on which pitcher can best navigate their opponent’s lineup and who can seize those key scoring moments.

For Boston, a win would keep their faint postseason hopes alive, while the Rays are playing for pride and building momentum for next season.

The Lean

Our projections have this as the 3rd highest-scoring game of the day, and with the line sitting at 7.5 runs, we are leaning towards the over. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning towards the Red Sox to come out on top. Boston’s offense has some good individual projections, as their hits, runs, and home runs projections are the best in today’s slate of games.