Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Twins, Rays set to send out openers after low-scoring game

The Twins and Rays are set to face off in an AL matchup at 6:50 PM ET. This one is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, and the Twins are the slight money line favorites, with their line sitting at -115 compared to the Rays at -105.

Wednesday’s forecast doesn’t look great in St. Petersburg, as there is rain in the area. Cole Sulser is slated to start for the Rays, and he is facing off against Ronny Henriquez. Minnesota is 2nd in the AL Central, while the Rays are 4th in the AL East.

Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Twins at Rays
• Where: Tropicana Field St. Petersburg
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds MIN -115 | TB -105 O/U 8.5

The Twins Can Win If…

Right-hander Ronny Henriquez gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Rays on the road. He has made nine appearances this season and has a record of 1-0 with an ERA of 2.46. Opponents have hit .227 off Henriquez this season, and his WHIP is currently 1.18. Henriquez most recently pitched on September 2nd out of the bullpen, where he went one inning, giving up one hit and no runs. He finished with a no decision in that outing. Henriquez has finished with a no decision in each of his last four outings.

Carlos Santana, Ryan Jeffers, and Willi Castro have been the Twins’ top power threats this season, as Jeffers leads the team with 20 homers, and Santana and Jeffers are 2nd and 3rd on the team in RBIs, respectively. However, all three are batting under .252 for the season. Over his last five games, Santana has gone just 3/15 with one homer and three RBIs. Royce Lewis has gone 6/19 in this stretch, including one home run and four RBIs.

As a team, the Twins are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been a good home run hitting team this season and are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage and OPS. Currently, Carlos Correa is on a four-game hitting streak, and Royce Lewis has hits in five straight games.

• The Twins are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Twins are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Minnesota has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Twins have an average of 2.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Twins are 5-5
• Looking back across the Twins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Minnesota has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Twins have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Rays Can Win If…

Cole Sulser is getting the start for the Rays today and has made six appearances out of the bullpen this year. He has a record of 0-0 and an ERA of 5.40 to go along with a WHIP of 1.56. The right-hander most recently pitched on September 1st against the Padres, where he went 2 2/3 innings, giving up one hit, and three walks. Sulser didn’t allow a run in that outing and finished with a no decision. Opponents are batting .250 off Sulser this year, and his BB/9 figure is currently at 6.48.

Yandy Diaz comes into the game as the Rays’ leader in RBIs this season, and he is also 2nd on the team with a batting average of .274. He has also gone deep 12 times this season. Over his last seven games, Diaz has gone 8/26 with two homers. Christopher Morel and Jose Siri have also been big home run threats for the Rays, but both come into the game with batting averages below .200.

Junior Caminero is currently on a four-game hitting streak and has gone deep twice while batting .282 over his last 10 games. Jonny DeLuca and Josh Lowe have also been swinging the bat well of late, with DeLuca batting .367 over his last nine games and Lowe going 13/36 in his last 10 games.

• The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Twins vs. Rays matchup is to take the Twins to come out on top. And despite our projections pointing to this being the lowest-scoring game of the day, we are leaning towards taking the over. Neither starter is projected to work very deep into the game, but between the two, we have Ronny Henriquez as the better strikeout option.

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The Tampa Bay Rays ended a two-game skid Tuesday night by securing a tight 3-2 win over the Minnesota Twins, leveling the series and providing a glimmer of hope in what has been a frustrating season. With both teams struggling offensively, the game served as a preview of future talent and an indicator of the challenges they face moving forward.

Rays Catching a Glimpse of the Future

One of the most promising developments for the Rays (68-70) was the performance of top catching prospect, Logan Driscoll. In his major league debut, the 26-year-old delivered what turned out to be the game-winning RBI with a crucial single in the fourth inning. Driscoll’s clutch hit marked his first contribution to the big league team, and with his promotion from Triple-A, he’s quickly making a case for more playing time.

Driscoll hit .292 with seven home runs and 37 RBIs in 70 games for Durham, and with the Rays’ struggles at the catcher position, his bat could become an important asset for the team in 2025. “I just had to stick to the approach that we kind of talked about as a team,” Driscoll said. “I was lucky enough to stick to that plan and get just enough to get that run in.”

The Rays, who are now 2-3 on their current homestand and 36-37 at Tropicana Field, have been relying on a platoon of Ben Rortvedt (.239 average, .328 slugging) and Alex Jackson (.122 average, .201 on-base percentage), both of whom have underwhelmed offensively. Driscoll’s emergence could shake things up as the Rays look to build catching depth for the future.

Twins’ Offensive Woes Continue

On the other side, the Minnesota Twins (75-63) failed to convert key opportunities, going 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position, a critical factor in their defeat. Veteran slugger Carlos Santana provided the Twins’ only offensive spark with a solo home run, his 19th of the season, in a two-hit performance.

Despite their offensive troubles, Minnesota’s bullpen was exceptional. Relievers Caleb Thielbar, Michael Tonkin, and Diego Castillo combined for three scoreless innings, allowing only one hit and keeping the game within reach. Manager Rocco Baldelli acknowledged the strong bullpen work but was frustrated by the lack of timely hitting. “We just needed to muster something—anything—to get back in the game,” Baldelli said, reflecting on the missed chances. Minnesota dropped to 21-17 in one-run games this season.

What’s Next: Bullpen Battle Looms

The series continues Wednesday, and both teams are set to use an “opener” strategy, a modern approach designed to maximize bullpen flexibility. For Minnesota, Ronny Henriquez (1-0, 2.45 ERA) will take the mound first, but Louie Varland is expected to pitch the majority of innings. Varland has struggled this season, posting a 0-5 record with a 6.14 ERA, and has not fared well against the Rays in his career, allowing a 7.56 ERA in previous appearances.

Tampa Bay will counter with Cole Sulser (0-0, 5.40 ERA) as the opener, followed by left-hander Tyler Alexander (5-4, 5.48 ERA). Alexander, who has a 3.38 ERA against the Twins across 12 appearances, will be tasked with handling most of the workload. The Rays hold a 3-2 edge in the season series, with every matchup decided by a single run, setting the stage for yet another closely contested game.

Tight Games Define the Season

Both the Rays and Twins have thrived in close games this season. Tampa Bay improved to 26-16 in one-run games with Tuesday’s win, while Minnesota fell to 21-17 in the same situation. The ability to grind out victories in these tight matchups could prove crucial as both teams push towards the end of the regular season, with the Twins looking to solidify their playoff positioning and the Rays aiming to finish strong despite a frustrating year.

Looking Ahead

As the series progresses, both teams will look to overcome their offensive struggles and rely on their bullpens to carry the load. With the Rays showcasing emerging talents like Driscoll and Minnesota demonstrating bullpen depth, the next game promises to be another nail-biter, hinging on timely hits and effective pitching management.

The Rays are hoping to continue building momentum, while the Twins need to find consistency at the plate if they want to reverse their fortunes in one-run games.