Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 5th 2024

The Twins and Rays will face off in an AL matchup at 1:10 PM ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL. Minnesota is 75-64 and they are starting Pablo Lopez, while the Rays are 69-70 and Taj Bradley on the mound.

Thursday’s money line odds have the Twins favored at -141 compared to the Rays at +120. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and the game can be seen on BSSUN.

Pablo López will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that start vs. the Blue Jays, he went 7 2/3 innings. Looking back further, López has been solid, as he has given up two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The right-hander has a record of 13-8 this season and an ERA of 4.05. For the year, he has made 27 starts, 15 of which were quality starts. López’s ERA at home is 4.63, compared to 4.91 on the road.

Heading into today’s game, the Twins are 9th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. This includes averaging 4.9 runs per game at home, which is also 9th in the league. Overall, they are 7th in team batting average (.252) and have the 5th best team on-base percentage in the league. Minnesota’s offense is also near the top of the league in slugging percentage and OPS.

Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers come into the game tied for the team lead with 20 home runs, with Willi Castro just behind them with 11 homers. Santana has driven in a team-high 60 runs, with Jeffers at 59. Byron Buxton is 2nd on the team in homers (16) and 4th in RBIs (49). Over his last five games, Santana has gone 3/15 with two homers.

Taj Bradley gets the start for the Rays today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Padres. In that start, he gave up 8 earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings of work. Bradley has taken the loss in each of his last three outings. Overall, he is 6-9 with a 4.35 ERA and has issued 3.12 walks per nine innings compared to 9.93 strikeouts. Bradley has made eight quality starts this year. At home, his ERA is 5.63 compared to 6.0 on the road.

Over his last eight games, Josh Lowe has gone 11/30 (.367) with one home run and two RBIs. This has helped him put together a three-game hitting streak. Yandy Diaz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/21 with three homers in his last six games. Diaz’s 61 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and he is batting .276 for the season.

As a team, the Rays are batting just .231, which is 19th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in scoring, averaging just 3.9 runs per game. This is a team that strikes out a lot and doesn’t have a lot of power, as they are 21st in home runs and have a collective ISO of just .138.

The Minnesota Twins are looking to bounce back and even their four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. After taking a tough 8-0 loss on Wednesday, the Twins will turn to their ace Pablo López in hopes of finishing strong. On the other side, Tampa Bay aims to keep up their momentum behind Taj Bradley, a pitcher searching for his form after a rough stretch.

Rays Offense Breaks Out in Crucial Inning

The Rays (69-70) took control of the series with a massive eight-run explosion in the fourth inning of Wednesday’s game. Tampa Bay sent 11 batters to the plate in their best offensive inning of the season, collecting five hits and showing off their depth at the plate.

Leading the charge was Taylor Walls with three RBIs, while Yandy Díaz put the exclamation point on the inning with a towering 423-foot, two-run homer to dead center. The offensive onslaught secured the season series against Minnesota, with Tampa Bay taking four of six games.

Walls summed up the team’s energy, saying, “Seeing guys put together good at-bats and square balls up… it gives you this almost subconscious sense that you’re going to do it soon.” That contagious energy helped the Rays secure a dominant victory and build momentum heading into the series finale.

Twins Turn to Pablo López for Series Split

For the Twins (75-64), Thursday’s game offers a chance to salvage a series split, and they’ll be relying on their ace, Pablo López (13-8, 4.05 ERA), to get the job done. López has been in exceptional form this summer, posting a 5-1 record with a 2.01 ERA over his last seven starts. He’s been lights out in his last three outings, stringing together 20 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings.

In his most recent start, López dominated the Toronto Blue Jays, pitching 7 2/3 innings of shutout baseball in a 2-0 victory. His ability to generate weak contact, as seen by his 13 groundouts in that game, has been a hallmark of his success this season.

However, López has had his struggles against Tampa Bay. In seven career starts, he holds a 1-3 record with a 4.05 ERA, and the Rays have hit him well, batting .235 with eight home runs. Despite these past struggles, López will be looking to continue his hot streak and give the Twins a shot at a split.

Taj Bradley Struggles After Stellar July

For the Rays, Taj Bradley (6-9, 4.35 ERA) will take the mound, trying to shake off a disastrous August after an incredible July performance. Bradley was named American League Pitcher of the Month in July, thanks to a 1.45 ERA and a .160 opponents’ batting average across five starts. His peak came with a dominant six-inning, scoreless outing against Toronto on July 25.

But things have gone downhill fast for Bradley since then. In August, he posted a 0-4 record with a sky-high 10.41 ERA. Opposing batters feasted on his pitches, hitting .366 during that stretch. Now, he’s hoping to turn things around and get back to the form that made him one of the best young pitchers in the league earlier this season.

Bradley has faced the Twins twice in his career, including a June 19 start this season where he allowed two runs on seven hits over six innings. While he didn’t factor into the decision, the Twins eventually won that game 3-2. Bradley will need to rediscover his best stuff to stop Minnesota from pulling off a split.

Key Matchup: Pitching in Different Directions

Thursday’s game presents an intriguing contrast between two pitchers headed in opposite directions. Pablo López has been on a roll, shutting down offenses and giving the Twins consistent, quality starts. He’ll be looking to stay dominant and provide Minnesota with a strong chance to leave St. Petersburg with a split.

Meanwhile, Taj Bradley is fighting to get back on track. After a rough August, he’s in desperate need of a bounce-back performance to help the Rays stay competitive in the American League East and keep pushing for postseason contention.

Both teams have a lot on the line as the regular season winds down. With each game becoming more critical, Thursday’s matchup will be a pivotal test for both clubs as they look to solidify their playoff positions.

Final Thoughts

As the Twins and Rays prepare to face off one last time in this series, both teams are feeling the pressure. Minnesota needs a win to salvage a split and keep pace in the playoff race, while Tampa Bay is hoping to build on their offensive breakout and avoid falling further behind in the standings.

Will Pablo López continue his run of brilliance, or can Taj Bradley recapture his July form and lead the Rays to victory? With everything on the line, this game is shaping up to be a crucial battle as both teams fight to finish the series strong.

Our lean in this one is to take the Twins to win straight-up over the Rays. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is our 2nd lowest projected scoring game of the day, but we still have this one finishing with more than 7 runs. Minnesota starter Pablo López is 8th in our projections in starting pitcher strikeouts, and we have Taj Bradley as the 6th best among today’s starters.