Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions August 11th 2024

At 1:35 PM ET, the Astros and Red Sox face off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, and the Astros are slight money line favorites (-139). The Red Sox have a line of +118 and are looking to snap a three-game losing streak.

James Paxton is starting for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Hunter Brown. The over/under line is at 10.5 runs, and the Astros come in with a record of 61-55, while the Red Sox are 61-54.

Houston vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Sunday, August 11th
• Betting Odds HOU -139 | BOS +118 O/U 10.5

Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 3.98. Brown’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.37. In his 22 starts, he has turned in 13 quality starts and is averaging 9.59 strikeouts per nine innings. Brown’s last outing came against the Rangers, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in six innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear of late for the Astros, going 12/34 with four homers over his last nine games. For the season, he is batting .304 with 24 homers, which is the best mark on the team and 10th in the league. Alvarez also leads the Astros with 62 RBIs. Kyle Tucker is 2nd on the team with 19 homers and is batting .266 for the season.

As a team, the Astros are 2nd in the league in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have the league’s 8th best slugging percentage. Houston comes into the game with a team batting average of .261.

• The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 6-4
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Houston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

Left-hander James Paxton gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Astros at home. Paxton has made 20 starts this year and has a record of 9-3 with a 4.42 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Paxton has a WHIP of 1.44 and opponents are batting .243 this year. In his 20 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, Paxton has allowed 12 homers and is averaging 4.52 walks per nine innings. In his last outing, he gave up two earned runs in six innings of work, picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts.

So far this season, the Red Sox have been one of the league’s best offenses, averaging five runs per game, which is 4th in the MLB. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .261, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Boston’s team on-base percentage is 5th in the league, and they have the 2nd best slugging percentage in the league.

Heading into today’s game, Jarren Duran is on a nice little hot streak, batting .325 over his last nine games and has gone deep once during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .293 with 14 homers. Rafael Devers has also been a big power threat for the Red Sox, as his 25 homers are the best mark on the team and 9th best in the MLB.

• The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 8-2 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 5-5
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 6.8 runs per game on offense

The Boston Red Sox are gearing up to face the Houston Astros in the series finale on Sunday, desperate to snap their three-game losing streak and avoid getting swept at Fenway Park. The Sox have had a tough time keeping the ball in the yard lately, and they’ll need to bring their A-game to keep the Astros’ powerful lineup in check.

Red Sox Struggling with the Long Ball

It’s been a rough stretch for the Red Sox, who have dropped three in a row, mainly because they’ve been giving up way too many home runs. Since the All-Star break, Boston has surrendered a whopping 44 homers in just 20 games—the most in the majors during that span. The trend continued this weekend, with the Astros going deep twice in Friday’s 8-4 win and adding four more homers in Saturday’s 5-4 victory.

Yordan Alvarez was the star of the show for Houston on Saturday, smashing two homers to notch his fourth multi-homer game of the season. Red Sox manager Alex Cora couldn’t help but compare Alvarez to some of baseball’s biggest sluggers.

Astros Eye Sweep with Hunter Brown on the Mound

The Astros, riding high on a four-game winning streak, will send Hunter Brown to the mound on Sunday. Brown has been a solid presence in Houston’s rotation, with a 9-7 record and a 3.98 ERA. He’s shown consistency, pitching at least six innings in 13 of his last 14 starts. This will be Brown’s first career start against the Red Sox, and he’ll be looking to help the Astros complete the sweep at Fenway.

Houston’s offense has been red-hot, scoring 23 runs over their last four games. With the long ball being a big part of their recent success, the Astros will be aiming to keep the power surge going in the series finale.

Red Sox Turn to James Paxton to Stop the Bleeding

The Red Sox will counter with James Paxton, who’s had a rough go since joining the team in late July. Paxton has posted a 4.35 ERA in his first two starts with Boston, and he’ll need to step it up if the Sox hope to salvage a win. On the bright side, Paxton has a decent track record against the Astros, with an 8-5 record and a 3.72 ERA in 15 career starts.

Boston has been better on the road this season, sporting a 34-24 record away from Fenway, compared to just 27-30 at home. The Sox have been plagued by errors and have allowed more runs at home, which has contributed to their inconsistent play.

Managerial Insights

Red Sox manager Alex Cora is frustrated with the team’s struggles at Fenway.

With their backs against the wall, the Sox will need to figure out how to keep the Astros’ bats in check and turn things around at home.

Wrapping It Up

As the Red Sox look to snap their losing streak and avoid a sweep, all eyes will be on James Paxton and whether he can contain the Astros’ powerful lineup. On the other side, Hunter Brown will be aiming to keep his strong form going and lead Houston to a series sweep. With both teams having plenty to play for, Sunday’s game is shaping up to be a critical showdown.

Our lean for a money-line pick would be to take the Red Sox to come out on top at home. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the under, as we have this as the 8th lowest-scoring game of today’s slate. These teams are projected to finish with the 7th most hits, and the 3rd fewest home runs. James Paxton is our 14th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts, and we have him finishing with more than Hunter Brown for the Astros.