Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions August 29th 2024

After near no-hitter, Jays’ Bowden Francis faces Red Sox

The forecast for Thursday’s Blue Jays vs Red Sox game calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the low 70s. This one gets started at 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, and the Red Sox are favored on the money line (-140). The Blue Jays have a money line odds of +119, and they are 5th in the AL East, while the Red Sox are 3rd.

Both teams have won two straight heading into the game, and the Red Sox are 69-64 overall, while the Blue Jays are 65-70. Kutter Crawford is starting for the Red Sox, and the Blue Jays are going with Bowden Francis. NESN will be televising this one.

Toronto vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Blue Jays at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Thursday, August 29th
• Betting Odds BOS -140 | TOR +119 O/U 9

The Blue Jays Can Win If…

Toronto is sending right-hander Bowden Francis to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made 22 appearances this season and has a record of 7-3 with a 4.02 ERA. Francis has made eight starts and has a WHIP of 1.07. In his 71 2/3 innings of work, he has issued just 19 walks compared to 8.79 strikeouts per nine innings. Francis has turned in three straight quality starts and is coming off a game in which he went eight innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. He has won each of his last three outings.

George Springer has struggled over his last nine games, hitting just .194 with four homers, but he does come into the game with 19 home runs for the season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot of late, going 13/32 (.406) in his last nine games, including two homers. Guerrero Jr. is also 9th in the league in RBIs and is batting .322 for the season.

As a team, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been an average hitting team this season, batting a collective .239. Overall, they are 20th in home runs and have the 13th best on-base percentage in the MLB.

• The Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Blue Jays are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Toronto has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Blue Jays have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Blue Jays are 5-5
• Looking back across the Blue Jays last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Toronto has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Blue Jays have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Right-hander Kutter Crawford is getting the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Blue Jays at home. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 8-11 with a 4.19 ERA. Crawford’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09, and opponents are batting .216 off him this year. In his 27 starts, he has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 8.37 strikeouts per nine innings. Crawford’s last outing came on August 24th, where he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. He has lost each of his last three starts.

So far this season, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .259, which is the 3rd best mark in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in slugging percentage and OPS. Boston’s offense is also tough to strike out, as their 9 strikeouts per game is the 27th best mark in the MLB.

Jarren Duran has been on a tear of late, going 13/36 in his last 10 games with four homers. For the season, he is batting .295 with 20 home runs. Rafael Devers is also having a strong season at the plate, with a team-high 28 homers and 80 RBIs. He is also batting .290 and is currently on a three-game hitting streak.

• The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 6-4
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 5.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

As the Red Sox host the Blue Jays, we are leaning towards the Red Sox picking up the win at home. We also like the over in this one, as this is projected to be the 5th highest-scoring game of the day. Boston starter Kutter Crawford has the 5th best chance to pick up a win among today’s starters, while Bowden Francis has the 2nd worst strikeout projection among today’s starters.

Bowden Francis has been on a tear recently, and he’s coming off a career-defining performance. The 28-year-old right-hander flirted with history in his last start, carrying a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Angels. Although his bid for just the second no-hitter in Blue Jays history was spoiled by a leadoff home run from Taylor Ward, Francis still secured a dominant 3-1 victory, notching a career-high 12 strikeouts.

This impressive outing marks Francis’ third consecutive win, improving his record to 7-3 with a 4.02 ERA. Over his last three starts, he’s been virtually unhittable, allowing just five hits, two runs, and three walks across 22 innings while striking out 27 batters. This recent success is a stark contrast to his early-season struggles, where he gave up 12 runs in his first 8 1/3 innings.

Blue Jays manager John Schneider, who decided to leave Francis in the game despite the rising pitch count, expressed confidence in his pitcher’s resilience. “He’s battled for a lot of years and has gotten to this point, so I didn’t want to take anything away from him,” Schneider said. “It was his until he gave up a hit.”

Francis’ resurgence has also caught the attention of his teammates. “We all know that at the beginning of the season, things weren’t going his way,” said Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. “But the last four or five outings, he’s been incredible. (Saturday) was unbelievable.”

Red Sox Pitching Holds the Line

On the other side, the Red Sox received an exceptional performance from their own young star, Brayan Bello. The 24-year-old delivered the best outing of his career on Wednesday, shutting down the Blue Jays over eight innings while allowing just two hits and one walk. Bello’s nine strikeouts were a testament to his ability to keep Toronto’s powerful lineup off-balance, and his performance played a key role in Boston’s 3-0 victory.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora was effusive in his praise. “That was fun to watch,” Cora said. “(Bello’s) best outing in the big leagues. Against a team that has given him trouble, he was able to keep them off balance.”

Kutter Crawford’s Consistent Contributions

Looking to build on Bello’s success, Kutter Crawford (8-11, 4.19 ERA) will take the mound for Boston in the series finale. Crawford has been a solid contributor for the Red Sox this season, although he’s faced tough luck in his last two outings. Despite allowing just five runs over 10 1/3 innings against Arizona and Baltimore, Crawford took losses in both starts.

Crawford has a mixed track record against the Blue Jays, holding a 4.26 ERA over five career appearances (four starts). However, his ability to compete, even when the odds are against him, has earned him respect within the Red Sox clubhouse. “For the most part, I felt like I competed pretty well — every single pitch,” Crawford said. “I just wasn’t in the zone enough.”

Offensive Matchups: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays

The Blue Jays’ offense has shown signs of vulnerability during this series, highlighted by their struggles against Bello. Despite entering the game with a five-game winning streak, Toronto’s bats were silenced on Wednesday, snapping a 16-game streak in which they hit at least one home run. Addison Barger’s double, extending his hitting streak to six games, was one of the few bright spots for the Jays.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been able to capitalize on timely hitting. Tyler O’Neill’s two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth on Wednesday provided crucial insurance, marking his fifth homer in nine games against Toronto this season. Wilyer Abreu also contributed with an RBI single in the first inning, which held up as the game’s winning run.

High Stakes and Final Thoughts

As the Blue Jays look to even the series, Francis’ performance will be key. His recent dominance could help Toronto regain their footing and reassert their place in the postseason race. On the other hand, the Red Sox will aim to continue their strong pitching performances, bolstered by their league-leading 13 shutouts, as they look to close out the series with a win.

With both teams needing strong outings from their starters, the stage is set for an exciting conclusion to this four-game series at Fenway Park.

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