Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Predictions July 31st 2024

Red Sox look to tighten defense, pitching in finale vs. Mariners

Wednesday’s matchup between the Mariners and Red Sox has a first pitch set for 4:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox are 56-50 this season, and they are starting Brayan Bello. The Mariners have George Kirby on the mound and they are 57-52, putting them 1st in the AL West.

Seattle is currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -120 compared to the Red Sox at +102. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and RSNW is carrying this game on TV.

Seattle vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Mariners at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Wednesday, July 31st
• Betting Odds SEA -120 | BOS +102 O/U 9.5

The Mariners Can Win If…

Seattle is sending right-hander George Kirby to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made 22 starts this year and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.03 ERA. Kirby’s WHIP for the season is currently .98, and opponents are batting .222 off him this year. In his 22 appearances, Kirby has turned in 15 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Kirby didn’t allow a run vs. the White Sox, going seven innings and picking up the win. He has made 12 starts on the road, coming in with a record of 3-5 and 3.78 ERA.

Cal Raleigh comes into the game as the Mariners’ top power threat, as his 23 home runs are 8th in the league and the best mark on the team. He also has 67 RBIs, which is 11th in the MLB. Julio Rodriguez has been a solid all-around hitter, batting .263 with 11 homers and 37 RBIs. Over his last nine games, Jorge Polanco is hitting .294 with five homers, and Victor Robles is also swinging a hot bat, going 13/38 in his last nine games.

Overall, the Mariners offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They are also the worst team in the league in terms of strikeouts. At home, they are averaging just 3.4 runs per contest.

• The Mariners are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 7.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mariners are 6-4
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Seattle has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 6.0 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Mariners at home. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 10-5 with an ERA of 5.28. Bello’s WHIP for the season is 1.44, and opponents are batting .268 off the right-hander this year. In his 19 appearances, Bello has turned in six quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Bello finished with a no-decision after giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. He has not lost a game since June 29th.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, Boston is one of the best hitting teams in the league, coming in with a team batting average of .260, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB right now. They are also one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, as they are 7th in home runs and have the 2nd best slugging percentage in the league.

Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill have been carrying the load in terms of power, as Devers’ 24 homers is 7th in the league, and O’Neill is right behind him with 22. Devers is also on a seven-game hitting streak and has gone 12/23 in his last six games. For the season, he is batting .301, while O’Neill is at .269.

• The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 9-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 7.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 4-6
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the under, as we have this as the 6th lowest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Red Sox to come out on top. Offensively, the Red Sox have the 7th highest team hits projection and the 6th highest team home run projection. Brayan Bello is our 4th ranked starting pitcher of the day in terms of strikeouts.

The Boston Red Sox are in dire need of a defensive and pitching overhaul as they prepare for the final game in their series against the Seattle Mariners. Having allowed seven or more runs in each of their last six games, the Red Sox are eager to break this disheartening streak. The upcoming game is crucial not just for the series but for their season’s standing as well.

Current Challenges for the Red Sox

In their recent performances, the Red Sox have struggled significantly with both pitching and defense. Over the past six games, they have allowed a staggering 63 runs. This defensive lapse has been a major factor in their poor performance post-All-Star break, where they have a record of 3-8. The frequency of high-scoring games against them underscores the urgent need for improvement.

Analysis of Recent Games

The Red Sox’s recent games highlight their defensive and pitching woes. In the latest loss to the Mariners, Boston surrendered 10 runs, contributing to a troubling trend. The 14-7 victory against the Mariners earlier in the series showed some offensive prowess but was marred by defensive errors. Such inconsistencies are symptomatic of deeper issues within the team’s current setup.

Importance of the Series Finale

The series finale against the Mariners carries significant weight. Not only does it offer a chance to win the series, but it also holds postseason tiebreaker implications. A win could boost the team’s morale and provide a much-needed pivot point as they head deeper into the season.

Manager Alex Cora’s Perspective

Boston’s manager, Alex Cora, has emphasized the long-term development of his players. His recent statements reflect a focus on the ongoing learning and development process. “We’re playing with kids and they’re still learning,” Cora said, acknowledging the challenges of maintaining consistent performance over a long season. His approach is grounded in the belief that persistent effort in training and development will eventually yield results.

Young Talent Development

The Red Sox have been integrating young players into their lineup, which comes with both potential and growing pains. These players are in various stages of their development, contributing to the team’s uneven performance. The organization’s commitment to nurturing talent is evident, but it also highlights the need for patience as these players mature.

Defensive Drills and Strategies

Cora has been implementing rigorous defensive drills to improve the team’s performance. These include both standard practices and innovative techniques designed to address specific weaknesses. The focus is on building a reliable defense that can support the team’s offensive efforts.

Offensive Adjustments

On the offensive front, the Red Sox have been making strategic adjustments. New additions to the lineup and tweaks in batting order are part of this strategy. These changes aim to bolster their scoring capabilities and provide a more balanced attack.

Justin Turner’s Impact on Mariners

Justin Turner, recently acquired by the Mariners, has already made his presence felt. In his first game against his former team, Turner drove in two runs. His experience and versatility are expected to be valuable assets for Seattle as they push towards the postseason.

Seattle’s Offensive Surge

The Mariners have seen significant contributions from players like Victor Robles, Jorge Polanco, and Dylan Moore. These players have stepped up at critical moments, driving the team’s recent offensive success. Manager Scott Servais has praised the collective effort, noting the positive impact of recent acquisitions and the improved performance of existing players.

Errors and Their Impact

The Red Sox’s three errors in the recent loss to Seattle were costly, leading to five unearned runs. Two of these errors occurred during a crucial five-run fifth inning for the Mariners. Such mistakes have been a recurring issue, with Boston leading the majors in errors this season.

Seasonal Error Statistics

With 81 errors, the Red Sox’s defensive struggles are glaring. This statistic places them at the top of the league in this unenviable category. Comparing this to league averages and past seasons highlights a significant area of concern that the team must address.

Probable Pitchers for the Finale

The series finale will see right-handers George Kirby for Seattle and Brayan Bello for Boston taking the mound. Kirby, with an 8-7 record and a 3.03 ERA, has been a model of consistency. Bello, although having the highest ERA among Boston’s starters at 5.27, has shown promise in his outings against the Mariners.

George Kirby’s Performance

George Kirby’s performance this season has been impressive. Known for his control, Kirby has walked just 14 batters over 130 2/3 innings. His recent seven scoreless innings against the White Sox were a testament to his capabilities. Kirby’s career stats against the Red Sox, including a strong showing earlier this season, suggest he will be a formidable opponent.

Brayan Bello’s Performance

Brayan Bello, while struggling with his ERA, has a decent track record against the Mariners. He has managed a 3-0 record with a 3.94 ERA in previous encounters. His ability to handle pressure situations will be crucial in the upcoming game.

Key Matchups to Watch

Key matchups in the series finale include Kirby against the top of Boston’s order and Bello facing Seattle’s hot hitters like Turner and Polanco. These confrontations will likely determine the game’s outcome.

Post-Game Analysis

The potential outcomes of the game range from a solid Red Sox win that boosts their confidence to a Mariners victory that cements their advantage in postseason tiebreakers. The performance of both teams will be scrutinized for signs of improvement or persistent issues.

Long-Term Implications for the Red Sox

For the Red Sox, this game and the remainder of the season are crucial for assessing their young talent and overall team development. Continued struggles could prompt significant changes in the offseason, while a turnaround could reinforce the current developmental strategy.

Fan Reactions and Expectations

Fans of the Red Sox have been vocal about their frustrations but remain hopeful for a turnaround. The team’s management and players are aware of these expectations and are committed to improving their performance.

Conclusion

The Red Sox’s defensive and pitching challenges are at the forefront as they prepare for the series finale against the Mariners. With significant implications for their season, the game represents a critical juncture. Improvement in these areas could pave the way for a stronger finish to the season.

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