Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions September 9th 2024

Monday’s Orioles vs. Red Sox game has a first pitch of 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox are the slight favorite on the money line (-120), while the Orioles are sitting at +101. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs. For a full breakdown of the betting odds, check out the latest MLB odds here. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Baltimore will be looking to end a two-game losing streak, as they are 82-62 and are 2nd in the AL East. Boston comes in with a record of 72-71 and is 3rd in the AL East. NESN will be televising Monday’s game.

Baltimore vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Orioles at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park, Boston
• Date: Monday, September 9th
• Betting Odds BOS -120 | BAL +101 O/U 9.5

The Orioles Can Win If…

Cade Povich gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. This year, he has made 12 starts and has a record of 2-7 with an ERA of 5.76. Povich’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.60. In his last outing, he pitched 7 1/3 innings, picking up the win and not giving up a run. Before that, he had a rough outing vs. the Dodgers, giving up five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Povich has allowed at least two homers in three of his last four outings.

Not only do the Orioles lead the league in slugging percentage, but they are also 2nd in home runs and are 4th in runs scored this season. As a team, they are averaging 4.9 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Baltimore has been even better in terms of power, as they have a collective isolated power of .189, which is the best in the league.

Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Santander’s 39 homers being the 3rd most in the league, and Henderson’s 36 homers being the 6th most. Henderson has been hot of late, going 10/24 in his last six games with three homers. Santander is looking to get his batting average up, as he is hitting just .239 for the season.

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• The Orioles are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Orioles are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Baltimore has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Orioles have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Orioles are 4-6
• Looking back across the Orioles last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Baltimore has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Orioles have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Right-hander Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles at home. Bello has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 12-7 with a 4.75 ERA. In his 26 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 8.56 strikeouts per nine innings. Bello’s last outing came on September 2nd, where he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came against the Orioles, where he gave up one earned run in six innings of work.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s best home run hitting teams, and are also near the top of the league in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. Boston has also done a good job of putting the ball in play, as their team BABIP of .32 is the best in the majors.

Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top run producer this season, as his 81 RBIs are the best mark on the team. He also leads the team with 28 home runs and is batting .278. Tyler O’Neill has also been a good power threat for the Red Sox, as he is 2nd on the team with 27 homers and comes into the game on a two-game home run streak. O’Neill has also gone 6/20 in his last six games.

• The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 3-7
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s game between the Orioles and Red Sox should feature plenty of offense, as this is our highest projected game in terms of runs scored and hits. For an over/under pick, we would be leaning towards the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Orioles to pick up the win. Looking at today’s starters, we have Brayan Bello as our 10th best strikeout option compared to Cade Povich, who is 4th worst.

Red Sox and Orioles Gear Up for a Make-or-Break Series

The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox are headed into their final series of the season, and there’s a lot at stake. Both teams are coming off a rough weekend, and as they face off Monday night in Boston, they’re hoping to turn things around and keep their playoff dreams alive.

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Orioles’ Post-All-Star Struggles

The Baltimore Orioles (82-62) have had a bumpy road since the All-Star break, managing a mediocre 24-24 record during that time. The weekend showed just how much they’ve been struggling, as they dropped two games to the Tampa Bay Rays, including a tough 2-0 shutout on Sunday, marking their sixth shutout loss of the season.

Orioles’ manager Brandon Hyde didn’t sugarcoat his thoughts: “Since the All-Star break, it’s been a challenge. Guys are pressing too hard, trying to do too much. We’re seeing way too many big swings.” The stats back him up—Baltimore hit an abysmal .163 during the series with Tampa Bay, highlighting their recent offensive woes. Despite these issues, the Orioles are just half a game behind the New York Yankees for the AL East lead, so there’s still hope.

There is a silver lining, though. Cedric Mullins recorded two hits on Sunday, marking his third multi-hit game in the last six. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman said, “Baseball is a tough game, but our guys do a good job of staying grounded.” His words show the team’s resilience, even in the face of adversity.

Red Sox Facing Do-or-Die Situations

On the other hand, the Boston Red Sox (72-71) are hanging on by a thread when it comes to playoff hopes. Sunday’s loss to the Chicago White Sox—especially after blowing a 2-1 lead in the ninth inning—was a gut punch. Boston had a chance to sweep, but that five-run ninth inning handed them a 7-2 loss. And with Chicago holding a dismal 33-111 record, manager Alex Cora was blunt: “We’ve got to win these games. We’re in this position because we’ve struggled for a month and a half.”

Boston’s offense has been hit-or-miss lately. On Sunday, they managed just two home runs from Connor Wong and Wilyer Abreu. Triston Casas, one of Boston’s best hitters this season, knows the stakes: “We have our backs against the wall. We need to play well, and that puts even more focus on games like these.”

Key Pitching Duel: Povich vs. Bello

Monday’s game brings a critical pitching matchup between two young guns: Baltimore’s Cade Povich (2-7, 5.76 ERA) and Boston’s Brayan Bello (12-7, 4.75 ERA).

Povich is coming off his best start of the year, throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in a 9-0 win against the White Sox last Tuesday. While his overall numbers haven’t been great, his recent form shows he might be turning a corner. Povich also performed well in his last outing against Boston on August 17, striking out six and allowing just two runs over 6 1/3 innings, though he ended up taking the loss in that game.

Bello, meanwhile, has been one of Boston’s brighter spots this season. After pushing his start back to give Tanner Houck some extra rest, the 25-year-old right-hander will take the mound. Bello has shown flashes of brilliance, like his eight-inning shutout of the Blue Jays in late August. But consistency is still an issue—he struggled in his last start, allowing four runs over five innings against the Mets. Against the Orioles, though, Bello has done well, with a 3-2 career record and a 3.71 ERA, including two wins this season.

In their August 17 face-off, Bello outdueled Povich, giving up just two hits over six innings in a 4-3 Boston win.

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What’s on the Line?

For Baltimore, this series is a chance to keep the pressure on the Yankees in the AL East race. Even with their recent stumbles, the Orioles are still in the thick of it, and a strong showing in Boston could be the key to overtaking New York.

For Boston, every game is a must-win at this point. The Red Sox are hanging by a thread in the playoff race, and with each loss, their chances slip further away. A series win here could give them the push they need to stay in the hunt, but anything less could be the final nail in the coffin.

Storylines to Watch

• Will the Orioles Break Out of Their Offensive Slump? Baltimore’s offense has been in a rut, and with the division title still within reach, they need contributions from everyone in the lineup. Can they find their groove again?
• Can the Red Sox Handle the Pressure? Boston’s season is on the line. Will their offense step up when it matters most and give their pitchers some much-needed support?
• Povich vs. Bello, Round Two: Both young pitchers have the potential to shape the series. Will Bello continue his dominance over the Orioles, or will Povich build on his recent success and lead Baltimore to a crucial win?

Wrapping It Up

As the Red Sox and Orioles gear up for this pivotal series, both teams are fighting for their seasons. Baltimore needs to get their bats going to stay in the division race, while Boston is running out of chances to make a postseason push. With tight pitching matchups and high stakes, this series could make or break the year for both clubs. Get ready for a fierce battle as the Orioles and Red Sox leave it all on the field.