Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions September 10th 2024

Both the Orioles and Red Sox will be looking to pick up a win in an AL East matchup, as the Orioles are 82-63, while the Red Sox are 73-71. However, the Red Sox are the slight favorite on the money line (-113), while the Orioles are at -105. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.

First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 PM ET, and MASN will be televising this one. Albert Suarez is starting for the Orioles, while Kutter Crawford goes for the Red Sox.

Baltimore vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Orioles at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Tuesday, September 10th
• Betting Odds BOS -113 | BAL -105 O/U 9.5

The Orioles Can Win If…

Right-hander Albert Suárez gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. This year, he has made 20 starts and has a record of 7-5 with a 3.49 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.31. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up six earned runs on eight hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came against the Red Sox, where he didn’t give up a run in six innings of work. Suárez has a total of five quality starts this year.

Heading into today’s game, the Orioles are one of the best home run hitting teams in the league, and they are also among the league leaders in runs scored. Overall, they are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. Baltimore has been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. The team’s collective batting average of .250 is 9th in the league, and they are the top team in the league in terms of isolated power.

Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Santander’s 40 homers leading the team and Henderson’s 36 homers coming in as the 2nd most on the team and 6th best in the league. Henderson has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/41 in his last 10 games with three homers.

• The Orioles are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Orioles are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Baltimore has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Orioles have an average of 1.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Orioles are 4-6
• Looking back across the Orioles last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Baltimore has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Orioles have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Kutter Crawford will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets, as he gets the start for the Red Sox today. In that September 3rd start, he took the loss, giving up 2 earned runs in 6 innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, Crawford has given up 2 earned runs in each outing. He has a record of 8-13 this season and an ERA of 4.08. Opponents are batting .212 off the right-hander this season. Crawford has made 13 quality starts this year and is averaging 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings.

As a team, the Red Sox are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in the league in home runs and have the league’s best BABIP at .32. Boston’s team batting average of .257 is 5th in the league, and they have the 4th best slugging percentage in the league.

Tyler O’Neill has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/31 in his last nine games with five homers. For the season, he is batting .260 with a team-high 29 home runs. Rafael Devers also has been a key power source for the Red Sox, as he is 2nd on the team with 28 homers and is batting .281.

• The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 3-7
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

Red Sox Building Momentum in Wild-Card Race

The Boston Red Sox are making a late-season push, and after a dominant 12-3 win on Monday night, they’re riding high into Tuesday’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. The win was crucial for Boston (73-71), bringing them within three games of the final AL wild-card spot currently held by the Minnesota Twins. With their sights set on the playoffs, the Red Sox are hoping to keep the momentum going.

Monday’s game saw Boston’s offense explode, with Rob Refsnyder and Tyler O’Neill both launching two home runs each, something that’s only happened once before in Red Sox history. Refsnyder had a career night, racking up four hits and five RBIs, while O’Neill added three hits and three RBIs of his own.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora echoed that optimism, recognizing his team’s resilience in the wild-card race despite an up-and-down season. “We’re right there. I don’t know how, but we are,” Cora said. “We just have to keep grinding, be aggressive with the lineup, and see where it takes us.”

Orioles Struggling to Regain Form

Meanwhile, things aren’t looking as bright for the Baltimore Orioles. The team (82-63) has now dropped four of its last five games and is struggling to find its rhythm. Monday’s loss to the Red Sox pushed Baltimore 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the AL East race, and since the All-Star break, the Orioles have been inconsistent, going just 24-25.

While the Orioles are slumping, there were a few positives on Monday. Catcher Adley Rutschman broke out of his 12-at-bat hitless streak with two hits, and Anthony Santander smashed his 40th home run of the season.

Pitching Duel: Suarez vs. Crawford

Tuesday’s game will feature Baltimore’s Albert Suarez (7-5, 3.49 ERA) going up against Boston’s Kutter Crawford (8-13, 4.08 ERA). Both pitchers have something to prove as they look to help their teams in this crucial stretch of the season.

Suarez has been solid for Baltimore this year, but he’s coming off a rough outing where he gave up six runs over 4 1/3 innings to the White Sox. Before that, he had allowed just four runs over 30 1/3 innings in five starts, so the Orioles are hoping he can return to that form against Boston. The good news for Suarez is that he handled the Red Sox well earlier in the season, tossing six scoreless innings in a win over Boston in August.

Crawford, on the other hand, has pitched well despite losing his last four starts. He’s posted a 3.52 ERA during that stretch but has struggled against the Orioles in his career. Crawford has never beaten Baltimore, with an 0-3 record and a 6.58 ERA in six appearances. This season, he’s 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts against the O’s, so he’ll be looking to turn that around.

What’s at Stake?

For the Red Sox, every game from here on out is critical. They’re just three games back in the wild-card race, and with their offense firing on all cylinders, they’re hoping to close that gap and secure a playoff spot. The aggressive approach that’s been working for them lately needs to continue if they want to keep up with the competition.

On the flip side, the Orioles need to snap out of their funk if they want to stay in contention for the AL East title. With only two weeks left in the regular season, time is running out, and they can’t afford to keep losing ground to the Yankees. Baltimore’s offense needs to wake up, and they’ll be counting on guys like Santander and Rutschman to lead the charge.

Conclusion

The Red Sox are riding a wave of momentum after a massive win, while the Orioles are searching for answers as they fight to stay in the playoff race. With Albert Suarez looking to rebound and Kutter Crawford hoping to get his first win against Baltimore, Tuesday’s game will be a pivotal one for both teams. For Boston, it’s about keeping their wild-card hopes alive, and for Baltimore, it’s about regaining form before the postseason.

The Lean

For a money-line pick, we are leaning towards the Orioles to come out on top on the road vs. the Red Sox. And with our projections pointing to this being the highest-scoring game of the day, we are also leaning towards taking the over. The Red Sox’s offense has the 20th highest team strikeout projection, and Albert Suárez is 3rd among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.