Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions September 11th 2024

Cedric Mullins, Orioles carry momentum into finale at Boston

At 7:10 PM ET, the Orioles and Red Sox face off in an AL East matchup. Wednesday’s matchup is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, and the Red Sox are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -124. The Orioles are +104 on the money line, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.

Dean Kremer is starting for the Orioles, and he is facing off against Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox. The Orioles are 83-63 this season, while the Red Sox are 73-72. Boston is currently in 3rd place in the AL East, while the Orioles are 2nd.

Baltimore vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Orioles at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Wednesday, September 11th
• Betting Odds BOS -124 | BAL +104 O/U 9

The Orioles Can Win If…

Right-hander Dean Kremer is starting for the Orioles today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.27. Kremer’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.27. In his last outing, he didn’t give up a run in six innings of work, picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Kremer has allowed a total of 15 homers this season and is averaging 8.54 strikeouts per nine innings.

Over the past 10 games, Cedric Mullins and Gunnar Henderson have been swinging the bat well for the Orioles, with Mullins hitting .406 with four homers, and Henderson has gone 15/40 (.375) with three homers. Henderson is also on a three-game hitting streak heading into today’s game. Henderson is 2nd on the team with 36 homers, while Anthony Santander leads the team and is 3rd in the league with 40 homers.

As a team, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and are also 4th in runs scored, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s top team in terms of isolated power and are 1st in slugging percentage.

• The Orioles are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Orioles are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Baltimore has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Orioles have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Orioles are 5-5
• Looking back across the Orioles last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Baltimore has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Orioles have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles at home. Pivetta has made 22 starts this year and has a record of 5-10 with an ERA of 4.38. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings. Pivetta’s last outing came against the White Sox, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight outings.

So far this season, the Red Sox offense has been one of the league’s best, as they are 8th in runs per game (4.8), and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in home runs and have the league’s best team BABIP. As a team, they are batting .256, which is the 5th best mark in the league.

Over the past six games, Tyler O’Neill has gone 7/22 with four homers and six RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .258 with 29 homers. O’Neill’s 29 homers is the best mark on the team and 12th best in the league. Rafael Devers is right behind him with 28 homers and is leading the Red Sox with 81 RBIs.

• The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 3-7
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Look for the Orioles to come out on top in this one, and we are leaning towards taking them on the money line. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is our highest projected scoring game of the day. The Red Sox have the 5th best team strikeout projection in the league today, and we have Nick Pivetta finishing with 6.12 strikeouts.

After a critical 5-3 victory over the Boston Red Sox, propelled by two home runs from Cedric Mullins, the Baltimore Orioles (83-63) are riding high as they seek to win the three-game series at Fenway Park. The Orioles’ win, coupled with the Kansas City Royals’ 5-0 shutout of the New York Yankees, moved Baltimore within half a game of first place in the American League East.

This victory couldn’t have come at a better time for the Orioles, who had dropped four of their last five games. Mullins’ heroics on Tuesday night, alongside a strong team effort, lifted Baltimore out of its recent offensive slump.

Cedric Mullins Sparks Orioles’ Resurgence

Mullins’ performance was the focal point of the Orioles’ offensive revival. He launched a solo home run in the first inning and followed it with a two-run blast in the third, both coming off Boston’s starting pitcher Kutter Crawford, who leads the league in home runs allowed with 31 this season. It marked Mullins’ fifth career multi-homer game, signaling his resurgence at the plate after weeks of solid at-bats.

“Cedric has been locked in at the plate for a while, and tonight he came through big for us,” said Orioles manager Brandon Hyde. “We’ve been in a bit of a rough patch, but I think this could be the spark we needed.”

The Orioles’ offense had been struggling, managing just seven runs across their previous five games. Tuesday’s output provided a much-needed boost, with Mullins setting the tone. His two home runs helped Baltimore score early and build a lead they would not relinquish.

Baltimore Eyeing the AL East Title

The timing of this win is critical for Baltimore, as they continue to chase the New York Yankees in a tight division race. The Orioles are now just half a game behind New York in the American League East, positioning themselves to potentially overtake the Yankees if they can carry Tuesday’s momentum into the series finale.

Mullins recognized the importance of this victory, noting the impact on team morale as they enter the season’s final stretch. “This was big for us,” Mullins said. “It felt good to contribute and give the team some momentum going into the next day.”

Red Sox Stumble in Wild-Card Race

The loss was another setback for the Boston Red Sox (73-72), who now trail the Minnesota Twins by four games for the final AL wild-card spot. The Red Sox have struggled with consistency, especially when their offense fails to produce. Their record when scoring fewer than four runs is a dismal 8-49 this season, underscoring their dependence on offensive production to win games.

Boston manager Alex Cora voiced his frustration after the game. “We were one of the top offenses earlier in the year, but we’ve hit a cold stretch,” Cora said. “When we were hot, everyone was contributing. Now, it feels like everyone is struggling at the same time.”

The Red Sox managed 10 strikeouts on Tuesday and couldn’t find an offensive rhythm. They’ve now dropped critical games as the season winds down, and their postseason hopes are fading.

Pitching Matchup: Kremer vs. Pivetta

The series finale on Wednesday will feature a compelling pitching duel between Baltimore’s right-hander Dean Kremer (7-9, 4.27 ERA) and Boston’s righty Nick Pivetta (5-10, 4.38 ERA).

Kremer comes into the game after nearly tossing six no-hit innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start, a 2-0 victory. Although he’s had success recently, Kremer’s history against the Red Sox has been shaky, with a 1-1 record and a 6.45 ERA over eight career starts. The Orioles will hope Kremer can build on his recent performance and help secure the series.

Pivetta, on the other hand, has been a reliable pitcher against Baltimore, boasting an 8-3 record and a 3.33 ERA in 13 career starts against the Orioles. He’s coming off a solid outing against the Chicago White Sox, where he allowed just one run in six innings, although he didn’t factor into the decision. In his last appearance against Baltimore, Pivetta allowed three runs over five innings, taking the loss. He’ll be looking to bounce back and keep Boston’s slim wild-card hopes alive.

Key Takeaways Going into the Finale

Both teams have plenty at stake heading into Wednesday’s series finale. For the Orioles, a win could further close the gap on the Yankees and keep their division title hopes alive. With Cedric Mullins in top form and Kremer finding his stride on the mound, Baltimore has a good chance to seal the series and carry momentum into their next games.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are fighting to keep their playoff dreams afloat. Pivetta’s performance will be crucial if Boston hopes to salvage the series and remain within striking distance of the wild-card berth.

Conclusion

Tuesday’s game was a turning point for the Orioles, who saw Cedric Mullins power them out of a slump and closer to the top of the AL East. As they head into Wednesday’s series finale, Baltimore will look to build on their newfound momentum and position themselves for a strong playoff run. On the other side, Boston’s inconsistencies continue to hold them back, and their postseason chances are slipping away with every missed opportunity. The stage is set for a thrilling finale as both teams battle for their postseason aspirations.

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