Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

Red Sox, likely minus Rafael Devers, hope to slow Twins

From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Twins and Red Sox facing off in an AL matchup. This one gets started at 4:10 PM ET, and it is being televised by BSN.

Minnesota is 81-73 and they are 3rd in the AL Central, while the Red Sox are 76-78 and are on a two-game losing streak. Kutter Crawford will be on the mound for the Red Sox, and he is facing a Twins team that is starting Pablo Lopez. Minnesota is favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.

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Minnesota vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Twins at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Saturday, September 21st
• Betting Odds MIN -137 | BOS +117 O/U 8

The Twins Can Win If…

Pablo López is coming off a start in which he finished with a no-decision. Against the Guardians on September 16th, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, four walks, and eight hits. In his outing before that, he had picked up the win in three straight starts. Lopez’s record for the season is 15-8, and he has an ERA of 3.84. The right-hander has made 30 starts, and opponents are batting .243 this season. Lopez has a total of 18 quality starts this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.58 strikeouts compared to just 1.9 walks.

Carlos Santana has been a key power source for the Twins this season, leading the team with 22 home runs. However, he is batting just .238 for the season and has gone 7/30 in his last seven games. Willi Castro has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/25 in his last eight games, and is batting .250 for the season with 12 homers.

As a team, the Twins are 8th in the league in batting average and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Minnesota comes into the game with the league’s 12th best home run total.

• The Twins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Twins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Minnesota has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Twins have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Twins are 3-7
• Looking back across the Twins last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Minnesota has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Twins have averaged 2.7 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Yankees, where he took the loss. In that start, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs, seven hits, two walks, and two home runs. Crawford has taken the loss in each of his last three outings. Looking back further, he has just one win in his last seven starts. Crawford’s record for the season is 8-15, and his ERA is 4.19. Opponents are batting .217 off the right-hander this season. Overall, he has given up 33 homers.

Over the past five games, Connor Wong has been swinging a hot bat for the Red Sox, going 6/18 with an RBI. Tyler O’Neill has struggled in his recent games, going just 1/19 with a homer and two RBIs. However, O’Neill is still the Red Sox’s top power threat, as his 31 homers are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league.

As a team, the Red Sox are 8th in home runs and are batting a collective .252, which is the 6th best mark in the league. They are also one of the league’s best offenses in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, and have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest.

• The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 0-5 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 1-8-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 2-8
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Look for there to be plenty of offense in today’s Twins and Red Sox matchup, and not only are we leaning towards the Twins picking up the win, but we like the over as well. The Red Sox have the 6th best home run projection in the league today, but Kutter Crawford is our 7th worst projected starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts.

As the regular season nears its end, the Boston Red Sox find themselves battling to avoid a sub-.500 finish while the Minnesota Twins are focused on securing their place in the postseason. The Twins, buoyed by a thrilling 4-2 extra-innings victory in the series opener, will look to build on that momentum in Saturday’s matchup at Fenway Park.

Twins Focused on Strengthening Their Wild-Card Bid

The Minnesota Twins (81-73) are clinging to a narrow one-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for the final American League (AL) wild-card spot. Friday’s 12-inning victory over Boston was crucial, not just for the standings but for maintaining team morale during this final stretch. After a tough 10-inning loss to Cleveland, the Twins’ offense roared back to life with 13 hits, as the top of the order powered the win with consistent two-hit performances.

“It’s a really important eight games that we have left, so it was a huge (win) for sure,” said Twins shortstop Carlos Correa. “The way everyone came together to make it happen was really special. The message is simple: Never give up.”

Minnesota’s offense rallied late, with Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner delivering clutch RBI singles in the 12th inning to put the game out of reach. On the mound, eight Twins pitchers combined to allow just five hits and one unearned run over the final seven innings, showcasing the depth and reliability of their bullpen.

Pablo Lopez Takes the Mound for Minnesota

The Twins will now turn to ace right-hander Pablo Lopez (15-8, 3.84 ERA), who has been lights out over his past seven starts. Lopez has gone 5-0 with a remarkable 1.35 ERA during this stretch, solidifying his role as the team’s most reliable starter as they head toward the playoffs. Despite a no-decision in his last start against Cleveland, where he gave up two runs over 6 1/3 innings, Lopez remains a force on the mound.

Manager Rocco Baldelli praised Lopez’s ability to pitch deep into games but acknowledged the challenge of staying consistent through all innings: “He pitched so well until (the seventh). A leadoff walk, that’s not like him.”

In two career starts against the Red Sox, Lopez holds a 1-1 record with a 3.86 ERA, including a dominant May performance where he struck out eight over six innings, allowing just one run.

Red Sox’s Season Slips as Injuries and Offense Woes Persist

The Boston Red Sox (76-78) have been in a tailspin, now two games below .500 for the first time since May 18. Their offensive struggles continued in Friday’s loss, marking the fifth consecutive game where the team has scored three or fewer runs. Despite a solid stretch from shortstop Trevor Story, who is 9-for-24 (.375) over his last few games, the Red Sox lineup has lacked the spark needed to turn their season around.

Manager Alex Cora expressed frustration with the team’s approach at the plate, particularly their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities: “The whole chasing hits, it doesn’t work. I think controlling the strike zone, looking for pitches in certain areas, works right. That’s what I’m trying to get (us) to. And it hasn’t happened.”

Boston tied a franchise record on Friday by striking out 20 times and went a dismal 1-for-19 with runners in scoring position, a sign of their ongoing struggles to generate timely offense.

Rafael Devers’ Potential Season-Ending Injury

To add to their woes, the Red Sox may be without star third baseman Rafael Devers for the remainder of the season. Devers exited Friday’s game early as he continues to deal with a nagging right shoulder injury, and manager Alex Cora revealed that the slugger is scheduled for an MRI on Saturday. Devers has been one of the few bright spots for Boston this season, and his absence would be a significant blow to an already struggling offense.

“Probably, this will be it for him (this season),” Cora said, hinting at the possibility that Devers may not return before the season ends.

Kutter Crawford Looks to Snap Losing Streak

Boston’s starting pitcher for Saturday, Kutter Crawford (8-15, 4.19 ERA), has also been going through a rough patch. Crawford has lost six consecutive starts, posting a 4.28 ERA during this stretch. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance—pitching at least six innings in three straight starts prior to his most recent outing—his inconsistency has been a concern.

Crawford’s last start against the New York Yankees saw him surrender two home runs and four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings, including long balls to sluggers Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge. His struggles with the long ball have plagued him throughout the season, as he leads the majors with 33 home runs allowed.

“I didn’t make pitches when I needed to,” Crawford admitted after his loss to the Yankees. “Obviously, you can’t throw Judge a 92-mile-per-hour fastball right down the middle. I just didn’t do my job (on Sunday).”

What’s at Stake for Both Teams?

For the Twins, another victory in this series could put them in a commanding position in the wild-card race. They’ve found their groove at the right time, with key offensive players stepping up and the bullpen showing its depth. Pablo Lopez, with his recent dominant form, gives Minnesota a strong chance to take control of the series and push closer to clinching a playoff spot.

On the other hand, the Red Sox find themselves in a far more precarious position. Their offensive struggles, combined with the potential loss of Rafael Devers, make it increasingly difficult to envision a positive end to the season. Kutter Crawford’s tendency to give up home runs could spell trouble against a Minnesota lineup with power hitters capable of exploiting his weakness.

Key Takeaways

• Minnesota Twins: The Twins are on the brink of securing a playoff spot, and their recent performances indicate they are peaking at the right time. With Pablo Lopez’s excellent form on the mound and key contributions from hitters like Correa, Larnach, and Wallner, they are in prime position to close out the season strong.
• Boston Red Sox: Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Red Sox. Rafael Devers’ injury could be the final blow to their already faltering offense, and without him, their chances of climbing back to .500 are slim. Kutter Crawford will need to limit the home run ball to give his team a chance, but with the way things are trending, Boston is facing a tough uphill battle.

As the season winds down, the Twins look poised to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Red Sox may be looking ahead to next year.

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