Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Astros try to beat Reds for first time since 2016

Wednesday’s forecast in Cincinnati calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. The Reds will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak, but they are the slight underdogs on the money line (+120). The Astros, who are 1st in the AL West, have a money line odds of -141.

First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 6:40 PM ET, and BSOH will be televising this interleague matchup. Nick Martinez is starting for the Reds, and he is facing off against Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros.

Houston vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Reds
• Where: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds HOU -141 | CIN +120 O/U 9

The Astros Can Win If…

Houston is sending Spencer Arrighetti to the mound today, and he has made 24 starts this season. Arrighetti’s overall record is 7-11, and he has an ERA of 4.63. In his 24 starts, he has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings. Arrighetti’s most recent outing was a strong one, as he went 7 2/3 innings, picking up the win and not allowing a run. He gave up just two hits in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear of late for the Astros, going 11/23 in his last six games with five homers and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .313 with 30 homers, which is 8th in the league. Alvarez’s 73 RBIs are 2nd on the team. Catcher Yainer Diaz is leading the Astros in RBIs with 78 and is batting .300.

As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They are also among the league leaders in home runs and have the 6th best on-base percentage in the league. Houston’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts this season, but they are 25th in the league in walks.

• The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 5-5
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

The Reds Can Win If…

Right-hander Nick Martinez gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Astros at home. So far this season, he has made 11 starts and 37 total appearances. Martinez’s record for the season is 6-6, and he comes in with an ERA of 3.77. Opponents have a batting average of .248 this season off Martinez. He has made two quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing where he gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Martinez has not allowed a homer in three straight outings.

Elly De La Cruz has been a consistent run producer for the Reds this season, as his 61 RBIs are 2nd on the team and he is also 15th in the league with 22 home runs. De La Cruz is batting .261 for the season and has an on-base percentage of .344. Spencer Steer has also been a big power threat for the Reds, as he is 15th in the league with 85 RBIs and has 19 homers.

Over his last five games, Amed Rosario has gone 4/14 with a home run and four RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .286. Jonathan India has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/18 in his last five games.

• The Reds are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Reds are 4-6
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Cincinnati has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Astros and Reds matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 3rd highest-scoring game of the day. Our lean would be towards taking the over, and for a play on the money line, we would be leaning towards the Reds to come out on top. Nick Martinez is our highest-rated starter of the day in terms of picking up a win, and he has the 3rd best odds among today’s starters to allow the fewest earned runs.

The Houston Astros have dominated Major League Baseball (MLB) for the better part of a decade, securing two World Series titles and consistently ranking among the best teams in the league. However, one team has emerged as their unexpected kryptonite: the Cincinnati Reds. The Astros have not beaten the Reds since 2016, and the Reds have now won seven consecutive games against them, including Monday’s 5-3 victory to open their current three-game series. As the teams prepare for the second game after a rare off-day, the Astros are looking to end their losing streak and reclaim their dominance.

Astros vs. Reds: A Surprising Rivalry

Despite Houston’s numerous successes in recent years, the Reds have consistently outperformed them. Cincinnati swept the Astros both in 2019 at Great American Ball Park and again last season in Houston. The Reds have won 11 of their last 13 meetings with the Astros, a surprising feat considering Houston’s powerful roster.

Monday’s win marked another strong performance for Cincinnati, especially since it was the first time the team had won back-to-back games since mid-August. As the series resumes Wednesday, all eyes are on whether the Astros can finally break their seven-game losing streak against the Reds or if Cincinnati will extend its dominance.

Santiago Espinal: The Reds’ Secret Weapon

The Reds’ success this season can be attributed in large part to infielder Santiago Espinal, who has been in red-hot form since joining the team. Espinal was acquired to fill the void left by Matt McLain, who is recovering from shoulder surgery. His impact has been immediate and significant.

Since July 8, Espinal has been one of the best hitters in all of baseball, leading the major leagues with a .419 average during that span. His recent performances have raised his season average to .270, and he has quickly become a key player for the Reds. In Monday’s victory, Espinal delivered the go-ahead, two-run single, proving once again how essential he is to Cincinnati’s lineup.

Espinal’s stellar performance highlights how individual players can make a profound difference in the course of a season. For the Reds, his presence has helped the team stay competitive, especially in the absence of key injured players.

Kyle Tucker’s Potential Return: A Boost for Houston

While the Reds have found their stride with Espinal, the Astros are eagerly anticipating the return of star outfielder Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been sidelined since June 3 with a shin fracture, and his absence has been felt. However, despite losing one of their most valuable players, the Astros have posted the best record in the American League since his injury, going 48-29.

Tucker, who was batting .266 with 19 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases before his injury, could return to the lineup as early as this week. His recovery has progressed well, with the outfielder running, swinging, and fielding without issue during Monday’s pregame activities.

Manager Joe Espada expressed optimism that Tucker is close to returning at full strength. His comeback would provide a significant boost to a Houston team that is already surging. The Astros were seven games out of first place when Tucker went down, but they’ve clawed their way back into contention, largely due to their depth and resilience.

Pitching Duel: Arrighetti vs. Martinez

Wednesday’s game will feature a critical pitching matchup between Houston rookie Spencer Arrighetti and Cincinnati veteran Nick Martinez.

Spencer Arrighetti has been a revelation for the Astros this season. The rookie right-hander, who was named the American League Rookie of the Month for August, is riding high after an electrifying performance against the Philadelphia Phillies last week. Arrighetti took a no-hitter into the eighth inning before allowing a single, finishing the game with 7 2/3 scoreless innings, two hits, and 11 strikeouts. His active scoreless streak now stands at 14 1/3 innings, and he ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts per nine innings (10.9). With 151 strikeouts in 124 1/3 innings, Arrighetti is quickly establishing himself as one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game.

On the other side, Nick Martinez will take the mound for the Reds. Martinez has been a reliable arm in Cincinnati’s injury-ravaged rotation, making six starts in August. His last outing, a 5 1/3-inning appearance against the Milwaukee Brewers, saw him give up four runs, including two home runs, but he remains a key piece of the Reds’ pitching staff. Martinez is no stranger to facing the Astros, having posted a 3-4 record with a 4.13 ERA in his career against them. With injuries to key pitchers like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott, Martinez has been one of the few consistent options for Cincinnati.

Astros’ Momentum Without Tucker

Despite Tucker’s absence, the Astros have excelled, thanks in part to strong performances from players like Yordan Álvarez, Alex Bregman, and rookie outfielder Chas McCormick. Houston has gone from a team seven games out of first place to being among the best in the American League. Their resilience, depth, and ability to adjust have kept them in playoff contention even without one of their star players.

Arrighetti’s rise has also been crucial in the Astros’ success. As a rookie, his ability to dominate lineups with his strikeout ability has been a revelation, giving Houston a potent weapon in its starting rotation.

Can the Astros Break the Reds’ Hold?

The upcoming games hold significant importance for both teams. For the Astros, breaking their losing streak against the Reds would not only be a morale boost but also strengthen their momentum as they head into the final stretch of the season. The return of Tucker, coupled with Arrighetti’s continued success, could tip the scales in Houston’s favor.

For the Reds, another victory over the Astros would further cement their surprising dominance over one of the best teams in baseball. With Espinal in top form and Martinez providing consistency on the mound, Cincinnati is poised to give Houston another tough battle.

Conclusion

As the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds prepare for Wednesday’s game, the stage is set for a thrilling contest. The Astros are aiming to break their seven-game losing streak against the Reds and continue their impressive second-half surge. Meanwhile, the Reds, led by the scorching Santiago Espinal, will look to extend their dominance over Houston. With Kyle Tucker’s return on the horizon and Spencer Arrighetti delivering standout performances, Houston has plenty of reasons for optimism. However, the Reds, with their knack for upsetting the Astros, won’t go down easily.

Will the Astros finally overcome their Cincinnati curse, or will the Reds once again prove to be Houston’s Achilles’ heel?

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