Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions August 12th 2024

Reds get look at Cards, hope to make up ground in wild-card race

At 6:40 PM ET, the Cardinals and Reds face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the Cardinals are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -130. The money line odds for the Reds are at +110, and the over/under line is currently at 9 runs.

St. Louis will be looking for a win behind Sonny Gray, while the Reds are starting Andrew Abbott. In the standings, the Cardinals are 60-58, which has them in 2nd place in the NL Central, while the Reds are 4th at 57-61.

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Cardinals at Reds
• Where: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati
• Date: Monday, August 12th
• Betting Odds STL -130 | CIN +110 O/U 9

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Sonny Gray will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Rays. In that start, he went seven innings and gave up just two earned runs. Looking back over his last four outings, Gray has finished with a no-decision in three of them. He has a record of 11-6 this season and an ERA of 3.65. Gray’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.07. Opposing batters are hitting .214 off Gray this season. The right-hander has made 21 starts, 10 of which were quality starts. Gray’s ERA on the road is 5.26 compared to 2.87 at home.

St. Louis has not been a great offensive team this season, as they are 22nd in the league at 4.2 runs per game. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .247, which is 11th in the league, and have the 16th best slugging percentage in the league.

Over the past five games, Nolan Arenado has gone 7/18 with three runs scored and three RBIs. Willson Contreras has also been swinging a hot bat, going 6/19 with two homers in this stretch. Alec Burleson comes into the game with a team-high 20 home runs and a batting average of .277.

• The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cardinals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Reds Can Win If…

Cincinnati is sending Andrew Abbott to the mound today vs. the Cardinals, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Marlins. In that start, he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work. Abbott has taken the loss in each of his last three outings. Looking back further, he has just one win in his last six starts. Abbott’s ERA for the season is 3.70, along with a record of 9-9. Opponents are batting .231 off the left-hander this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.41 strikeouts and 3.49 walks.

Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Reds, going 12/34 in his last eight games, including two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .264 and is 4th on the team with 20 homers. Spencer Steer is also near the top of the Reds’ home run leaderboard, with 16 long balls, but is batting just .233 for the season.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 11th in the league in home runs. However, they are batting just .230 as a team and have the 24th worst on-base percentage in the league. Currently, both Nick Martini and Santiago Espinal are on three-game hitting streaks.

• The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cincinnati has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

As the Reds host the Cardinals today, we are leaning towards the Reds picking up a win at home. We also like the over in this one, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of today’s slate. This one has the 4th lowest combined hits projection, and 3rd lowest home runs projection. Looking at today’s starters, Sonny Gray has the 10th best strikeout projection compared to Andrew Abbott (5th worst).

As the National League wild-card race heats up, two division rivals—the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals—are set to face off in a three-game series that could define their postseason hopes. With both teams fighting to keep their playoff dreams alive, this series in Cincinnati has all the makings of a classic late-season showdown.

National League Wild-Card Battle Intensifies

The St. Louis Cardinals enter the series just 1.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the third and final NL wild-card spot. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds are three games behind the Cardinals and 4.5 games out of that coveted playoff position. Both teams are also trailing the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, with St. Louis 7.5 games back and Cincinnati 10.5 games behind.

This series represents a critical opportunity for both clubs to either gain ground or potentially see their postseason aspirations diminish. For the Reds, who are still in the hunt for their first postseason appearance since 2020, every game is a must-win.

Reds Staying Positive Amidst Playoff Pressure

Despite a challenging season, the Reds have managed to stay in contention. Their recent road trip concluded with a hard-fought 4-3 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, giving them four wins in their last seven games. This resilience has kept them in the playoff conversation, something Reds catcher Luke Maile finds encouraging.

“It’s a great thing … that we’re still playing meaningful games,” Maile remarked. “Despite our record and despite (the fact) we still have a little bit of an uphill battle, it’s just great to have a chance to play every single night with something on the line.”

That sense of urgency is palpable throughout the team. Reds infielder Santiago Espinal, who played a key role in their latest victory with two RBIs, emphasized the importance of the upcoming series: “We needed this going back home and (playing) St. Louis. Another must-win series.”

Pitching Duel: Andrew Abbott vs. Sonny Gray

The series opener will feature an intriguing pitching matchup between Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott and St. Louis’s Sonny Gray. Abbott, who has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 9-9 record and a 3.70 ERA, is looking to bounce back after a tough outing against the Miami Marlins where he allowed six runs in five innings.

However, Abbott’s history against the Cardinals has been rocky. In four career starts, he holds a 2-2 record with a 6.10 ERA. His ability to contain the Cardinals’ lineup will be crucial if the Reds hope to gain an early advantage in the series.

On the other side, Sonny Gray has been a steady presence for the Cardinals. The former Red, now sporting an 11-6 record with a 3.65 ERA, has been tasked with eating innings for St. Louis. In four of his last five outings, Gray has pitched at least seven innings, showcasing his durability and effectiveness. His most recent start saw him surrender two runs over seven innings in a win against the Tampa Bay Rays, a performance St. Louis manager Oliver Marmol praised highly.

“We needed it,” Marmol said of Gray’s strong showing. “He did a nice job of navigating that lineup. He had everything working and mixed it well and made good pitches when he needed to.”

Despite his strong season, Gray is still searching for his first win against Cincinnati, holding an 0-2 record with a 3.75 ERA in two starts against his former team.

What’s at Stake

This series isn’t just another three-game set; it’s potentially season-defining for both teams. A series win for St. Louis could propel them closer to overtaking the Braves for the final wild-card spot, while a strong showing by Cincinnati could help them close the gap and keep their postseason hopes alive.

For the Reds, securing victories in this series could also serve as a statement that they belong in the playoff conversation, despite the odds stacked against them. For the Cardinals, it’s a chance to solidify their position as a legitimate playoff contender.

Key Players to Watch

Beyond the starting pitchers, both teams have several players who could be difference-makers in this series. For Cincinnati, Spencer Steer, who drove in the go-ahead run in their recent win over Milwaukee, and Tyler Stephenson, who hit a key solo homer, are players to keep an eye on. On the Cardinals’ side, their lineup will be looking to provide run support for Gray, with key hitters like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado likely to play pivotal roles.

Series Outlook

As the Reds and Cardinals prepare to clash, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This series not only has immediate playoff implications but also could set the tone for the remainder of the season for both teams. Expect a fiercely contested series as both teams look to keep their postseason dreams alive.

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